INTRODUCTION TO MANAGEMENT SCIENCE EIGHTH EDITIONPDF电子书下载

1 Management Science 1

The Management Science Approach to Problem Solving 2

Observation 3

Definition of the Problem 3

Model Construction 3

Model Solution 4

Time Out：for Pioneers in Management Science 5

Management Science Application：Management Science at Taco Bell 6

Implementation 7

Model Building：Break-Even Analysis 7

Components of Break-Even Analysis 7

Cornputing the Break-Even Point 8

Graphical Solution 9

Sensitivity Analysis 10

Computer Solution 12

Excel Spreadsheets 13

The Excel QM Macro for Spreadsheets 14

QM for Windows 15

Management Science Modeling Techniques 16

Linear Mathematical Programming Techniques 16

Probabilistic Techniques 17

Network Techniques 17

Other Techniques 18

Business Usage of Management Science Techniques 18

Management Science Application：Management Science at Federal Express 19

Management Science Models in Decision Support Systems 20

Management Science Application：A Decision Support System for Aluminum Can Production at Coors 22

Summary 22

References 23

Problems 23

Case Problems 26

2 Linear Programming：Model Formulation and Graphical Solution 28

Model Formulation 29

A Maximization Model Example 29

Time Out：for George B.Dantzig 30

Decision Variables 30

The Objective Function 30

Model Constraints 31

Graphical Solutions of Linear Programming Models 32

Graphical Solution of a Maximization Model 32

Management Sclence Application：Operational Cost Control at Kellogg’s 33

The Optimal Solution Point 36

The Solution Values 38

Slack Variables 42

Management Science Application：Estimating Food Nutrient Values at Minnesota’s Nutrition Coordinating Center 44

Summary of the Graphical Solution Steps 44

A Minimization Model Example 45

Decision Variables 45

The Objective Function 45

Model Constraints 46

Graphical Solution of a Minimization Model 46

Management Sclence Application：Chemical Production at Monsanto 48

Surplus Variables 49

Irregular Types of Linear Programming Problems 50

Multiple Optimal Solutions 50

An Infeasible Problem 51

An Unbounded Problem 52

Characteristics of Linear Programming Problems 53

Properties of Linear Programming Models 53

Summary 54

References 54

Example Problem Solutions 54

Problems 58

Case Problems 66

3 Linear Programming：Computer Solution and Sensitivity Analysis 68

Computer Solution 69

Excel Spreadsheets 69

QM for Windows 73

Sensitivity Analysis 75

Changes in Obiective Function Coefficients 75

Management Science Application：Grape Juice Management at Welch’s 77

Objective Function Coefficient Ranges with the Computer 80

Changes in Constraint Quantity Values 81

Constraint Quantity Values Range with the Computer 83

Other Forms of Sensitivity Analysis 84

Shadow Prices 86

Summary 87

References 87

Example Problem Solution 88

Problems 90

Case Problems 102

4 Linear Programming：Modeling Examples 104

A Product Mix Example 105

Decision Variables 106

The Objective Function 106

Model Constraints 106

Model Summary 106

Computer Solution with Excel 107

Computer Solution with QM for Windows 108

Solution Analysis 108

A Diet Example 109

Decision Variables 109

The Objective Function 110

Model Constraints 110

Model Summary 110

Computer Solution with Excel 110

Solution Analysis 111

An Investment Example 112

Management Science Application：The Evolution of the Diet Problem 113

Decision Variables 113

The Objective Function 113

Model Constraints 114

Model Summary 115

Computer Solution with Excel 115

Solution Analysis 116

Management Science Application：A Linear Programming Model for Optimal Portfolio Selection at Prudential Securities，Inc. 118

A Marketing Example 118

Decision Variables 119

The Objective Function 119

Model Constraints 119

Model Summary 120

Computer Solution with Excel 120

Solution Analysis 121

A Transportation Example 121

Decision Variables 122

The Objective Function 123

Model Constraints 123

Model Summary 123

Computer Solution with Excel 124

Solution Analysis 124

A Blend Example 125

Decision Variables 125

The Objective Function 126

Model Constraints 126

Model Summary 127

Computer Solution with Excel 127

Solution Analysis 128

A Multiperiod Scheduling Example 129

Decision Variables 129

Management Science Application：Gasoline Blending at Texaco 130

The Objective Function 130

Model Constraints 130

Model Summary 131

Computer Solution with Excel 131

Solution Analysis 132

A Data Envelopment Analysis Example 133

Management Science Application：Analyzing Bank Branch Efficiency with DEA 134

Decision Variables 135

The Objective Function 135

Model Constraints 135

Model Summary 136

Computer Solution with Excel 136

Solution Analysis 136

Summary 137

References 138

Example Problem Solution 138

Problems 140

Case Problems 167

5 Integer Programming 171

Integer Programming Models 172

A Total Integer Model Example 172

A 0-1 Integer Model Example 173

A Mixed Integer Model Example 174

Management Science Application：Allocating Operating Room Time at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital 175

Integer Programming Graphical Solution 176

Computer Solution of Integer Programming Problems with Excel and QM for Windows 178

Solution of the 0-1 Model with Excel 178

Time Out：for Ralph E.Gomory 179

Solution of the 0-1 Model with QM for Windows 179

Management Science Application：Minimizing Color Photographic Paper Waste at Kodak 181

Solution of the Total Integer Model with Excel 181

Solution of the Mixed Integer Model with Excel 182

Solution of the Mixed Integer Model with QM for Windows 184

0-1 Integer Programming Modeling Examples 185

A Capital Budgeting Example 185

Management Science Application：Optimal Assignment of Gymnasts to Events 185

A Fixed Charge and Facility Location Example 187

A Set Covering Example 190

Management Sclence Application：Managing Prototype Vehicle Test Fleets at Ford 191

Summary 193

References 193

Example Problem Solution 194

Problems 195

Case Problems 206

6 Transportation，Transshipment，and Assignment Problems 211

The Transportation Model 212

Time Out：for Frank L.Hitchcock ana Tjalling C.Koopmans 214

Management Science Application：Transporting Sand for Airport Construction Landfill 215

Computer Solution of a Transportation Problem 215

Computer Solution with Excel 215

Computer Solution with Excel QM 216

QM for Windows Solution 218

The Transshipment Model 219

Computer Solution with Excel 221

The Assignment Model 222

Computer Solution of the Assignment Problem 223

Computer Solution with Excel 223

Computer Solution with QM for Windows 225

Management Science Application：Assigning Managers to Construction Projects 226

Summary 226

References 227

Example Problem Solution 227

Problems 228

Case Problems 251

7 Network Flow Models 256

Network Components 257

The Shortest Route Problem 258

The Shortest Route Solution Approach 259

Computer Solution of the Shortest Route Problem with QM for Windows 262

Computer Solution of the Shortest Route Problem with Excel 263

The Minimal Spanning Tree Problem 265

Management Science Application：Reducing Travel Costs at the Defense Contract Management Agency 266

The Minimal Spanning Tree Solution Approach 267

Computer Solution of the Minimal Spanning Tree Problem with QM for Windows 269

The Maximal Flow Problem 270

The Maximal Flow Solution Approach 270

Time Out：for E.W.Dijkstra，L.R.Ford Jr.，and D.R.Fulkerson 271

ManagementScience Application：Improving Service for Yellow Freight System’s Terminal Network 272

Computer Solution of the Maximal Flow Problem with QM for Windows 273

Computer Solution of the Maximal Flow Problem with Excel 274

Summary 276

References 277

Example Problem Solution 277

Problems 279

Case Problems 295

8 Project Management 301

The Elements of Project Management 302

The Project Team 302

Project Planning 303

Time Out for Morgan R.Walker，James E.Kelley Jr.，and D.G.Malcolm 304

Project Control 304

Project Networks 304

The Gantt Chart 304

The CPM/PERT Network 305

Management Science Application：Project “Magic” at Disney Imagineering 306

Concurrent Activities 307

Time Out：for Henry Gantt 307

The Critical Path 308

Activity Scheduling 310

Activity Slack 312

Probabilistic Activity Times 314

Probability Analysis of the Project Network 318

Management Science Application：The Mars Pathfinder Project 320

CPM/PERT Analysis with QM for Windows 321

Activity-on-Node Networks and Microsoft Project 321

The AON Network Convention 321

Microsoft Project 322

Project Crashing and Time-Cost Trade-Off 324

Project Crashing with QM for Windows 328

The General Relationship of Time and Cost 328

Management Science Application：Kodak’s Advantix Advanced Photo System Project 329

Formulating the CPM/PERT Network as a Linear Programming Model 330

Solution of the CPM/PERT Linear Programming Model with Excel 331

Project Crashing with Linear Programming 333

Project Crashing with Excel 335

Summary 336

References 337

Example Problem Solution 337

Problems 340

Case Problems 354

9 Multicriteria Decision Making 357

Goal Programming 358

Model Formulation 358

Labor Goal 359

Profit Goal 360

Material Goal 360

Alternative Forms of Goal Constraints 361

Graphical Interpretation of Goal Programming 362

Computer Solution of Goal Programming Problems with QM for Windows and Excel 365

Management Science Application：Developing Television Advertising Sales Plan at NBC 366

QM for Windows 366

Excel Spreadsheets 367

Time Out：for Abraham Charnes and William W.Cooper 369The Analytical Hierarchy Process 372

Management Science Application：Assigning MBA Students to Project Teams at the University of South Carolina 373

Pairwise Comparisons 374

Developing Preferences Within Criteria 375

Ranking the Criteria 376

Developing an Overall Ranking 377

AHP Consistency 378

AHP with Excel Spreadsheets 380

Management Science Application：Selecting a Site for a New Ice Hockey Arena with AHP 381

Scoring Model 384

Scoring Model with Excel Solution 385

Summary 385

References 386

Example Problem Solution 386

Problems 390

Case Problems 414

10 Nonlinear Programming 417

Nonlinear Profit Analysis 418

Constrained Optimization 421

Solution of Nonlinear Programming Problems with Excel 424

A Nonlinear Programming Model with Multiple Constraints 427

Nonlinear Model Examples 429

Facility Location 429

Investment Portfolio Selection 431

Management Science Application：Gas Production in Australia 432

Summary 434

References 435

Example Problem Solution 435

Problems 435

Case Problems 440

11 Probability and Statistics 442

Types of Probability 443

Objective Probability 443

Subjective Probability 444

Fundamentals of Probability 445

Management Science Application：Treasure Hunting with Probability and Statistics 447

Statistical Independence and Dependence 449

Independent Events 449

Probability Trees 450

The Binomial Distribution 450

DependentEvents 453

Bayesian Analysis 455

Expected Value 456

Management Science Application：A Probability Model for Analyzing Coast Guard Patrol Effectiveness 458

The Normal Distribution 458

Sample Mean and Variance 463

The Chi-Square Test for Normality 465

Statistical Analysis with Excel 468

Summary 470

References 470

Example Problem Solution 470

Problems 472

Case Problem 479

12 Decision Analysis 480

Components of Decision Making 481

Decision Making without Probabilities 482

Decision-Making Criteria 482

The Maximax Criterion 482

Management Science Application：Decision Analysis at DuPont 483

The Maximin Criterion 483

The Minimax Regret Criterion 484

The Hurwicz Criterion 485

The Equal Likelihood Criterion 486

Summary of Criteria Results 486

Solution of Decision-Making Problems without Probabilities with QM for Windows 487

Decision Making with Probabilities 488

Expected Value 488

Expected Opportunity Loss 489

Solution of Expected Value Problems with QM for Windows 490

Solution of Expected Value Problems with Excel and Excel QM 490

Expected Value of Perfect Information 491

Decision Trees 493

Decision Trees with QM for Windows 495

Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan 495

Management Science Application：Evaluating Electric Generator Maintenance Schedules with Decision Tree Analysis 498

Sequential Decision Trees 498

Sequential Decision Tree Analysis with QM for Windows 501

Sequential Decision Tree Analysis with Excel and TreePlan 502

Decision Analysis with Additional Information 502

Management Science Application：Decision Analysis in the Electric Power Industry 503

Decision Trees with Posterior Probabilities 504

Management Science Application：Discount Fare Allocation at American Airlines 506

Computing Posterior Probabilities with Tables 508

Computing Posterior Probabilities with Excel 508

The Expected Value of Sample Information 509

Management Science Application：Scheduling Refueling at the Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant 510

Utility 510

Summary 512

References 512

Example Problem Solution 512

Problems 516

Case Problems 533

13 Queuing Analysis 537

Elements of Waiting Line Analysis 538

The Single-Server Waiting Line System 539

The Queue Discipline 539

Time Out：for Agner Krarup Erlang 540

The Calling Population 540

TheArrivalRate 540

The Service Rate 540

The Single-Server Model 541

The Effect of Operating Characteristics on Managerial Decisions 544

Computer Solution of the Single-Server Model with Excel and Excel QM 546

Computer Solution of the Single-Server Model with QM for Windows 548

Undefined and Constant Service Times 548

Management Science Application：Reducing Arrest-to-Arraignment Times in New York City 550

Computer Solution of the Constant Service Time Model with Excel 551

Computer Solution of the Undefined and Constant Service Time Models with QM for Windows 552

Finite Queue Length 552

Management Science Application：Providing Optimal Telephone Order Service at L.L.Bean 554

Computer Solution of the Finite Queue Model with Excel 554

Computer Solution of the Finite Queue Model with QM for Windows 555

Finite Calling Population 555

Computer Solution of the Finite Calling Population Model with Excel and Excel QM 557

Computer Solution of the Finite Calling Population Model with QM for Windows 558

The Multiple-Server Waiting Line 558

Computer Solution of the Multiple-Server Model with Excel and Excel QM 562

Computer Solution of the Multiple-Server Model with QM for Windows 563

Additional Types of Queuing Systems 563

Summary 564

References 565

Example Problem Solution 565

Problems 566

Case Problems 574

14 Simulation 576

The Monte Carlo Process 577

The Use of Random Numbers 577

Management Science Application：Improving the Red Cross Blood Donation Process Using Simulation 581

Time Out：for John Von Neumann 582

Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets 583

Decision Making with Simulation 586

Simulation of a Queuing System 588

Computer Simulation of the Queuing Example with Excel 591

Management Science Application：Simulating the Israeli Army Recruitment Process 592

Continuous Probability Distributions 593

Simulation of a Machine Breakdown and Maintenance System 594

Computer Simulation of the Machine Breakdown Example Using Excel 596

Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results 598

Crystal Ball 600

Simulation of a Profit Analysis Model 600

Verification of the Simulation Model 608

Areas of Simulation Application 608

Queuing 609

Inventory Control 609

Production and Manufacturing 609

Finance 609

Marketing 609

Public Service Operations 609

Environmental and Resource Analysis 609

Management Science Application：Simulating a 10-km Race in Boulder，Colorado 610

Summary 610

References 611

Example Problem Solution 611

Problems 613

Case Problems 628

15 Forecasting 631

Forecasting Components 632

ForecastingMethods 633

Time Series Methods 634

MovingAverage 634

Weighted Moving Average 637

Management Science Application：Product Forecasting at Nabisco 638

Exponential Smoothing 639

Management Science Application：Forecasting CustomerDemand at Taco Bell 639

Adjusted Exponential Smoothing 642

Linear Tread Line 644

Management Science Application：Forecasting Demand for Discount Fares at American Airlines 644

Seasonal Adjustments 646

Management Science Application：Forecasting Service Calls at Federal Express 648

Forecast Accuracy 648

Mean Absolute Deviation 649

Cumulative Error 650

Management Science Application：Demand Forecasting at National Car Rental 652

Time Series Forecasting Using Excel 653

Computing the Exponential Smoothing Forecast with Excel QM 655

Time Series Forecasting Using QM for Windows 655

Regression Methods 656

Linear Regression 657

Correlation 658

Management Science Application：Competing withAccurate Daily Demand Forecasts at Vermont Gas Systems 660

Regression Analysis with Excel 660

Regression Analysis with QM for Windows 664

Multiple Regression with Excel 665

Summary 667

References 667

Example Problem Solutions 668

Problems 670

Case Problems 689

16 Inventory Management 691

Elements of Inventory Management 692

The Role of Inventory 692

Demand 693

Inventory Costs 693

Inventory Control Systems 694

Continuous Inventory Systems 694

Periodic Inventory Systems 695

Time Out：for Ford Harris 696

Economic Order Quantity Models 696

The Basic EOQ Model 696

Carrying Cost 697

Ordering Cost 699

Total Inventory Cost 699

EOQ Analysis over Time 701

The EOQ Model with Noninstantaneous Receipt 702

The EOQ Model with Shortages 705

Management Science Application：Online Inventory Management at IBM 708

EOQ Analysis with QM for Windows 709

EOQ Analysis with Excel and Excel QM 709

Quantity Discounts 710

Quantity Discounts with Constant Carrying Costs 711

Quantity Discounts with Constant Carrying Costsas a Percentage of Price 712

Quantity Discount Model Solution with QM for Windows 714

Reorder Point 714

Safety Stocks 715

Determining Safety Stocks Using Service Levels 716

Reorder Point with Variable Demand 716

Determining the Reorder Point with Excel 717

Reorder Point with Variable Lead Time 718

Reorder Point with Variable Demand and Lead Time 718

Management Science Application：Establishing Inventory Safety Stocks at Kellogg’s 719

Order Quantity for a Periodic Inventory System 720

Order Quantity with Variable Demand 720

Determining the Order Quantity for the Fixed-Period Model with Excel 721

Summary 722

References 722

Example Problem Solutions 722

Problems 724

Case Problems 731

Appendix A Normal Table 733

Appendix B Setting Up and Editing a Spreadsheet 735

Titles and Headings 735

Borders 735

Column Centering 736

Deleting and Inserting Rows and Columns 736

Decimal Places 736

Appendix C The Poisson and Exponential Distributions 739

The Poisson Distribution 739

The Exponential Distribution 740

Solutions to Selected Odd-Numbered Problems 741

Glossary 749

Index 755

Photo Credits 763