Infrastructure PlanningPDF电子书下载

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Scope 1

The Book’s Scope 1

This Chapter’s Scope 1

1.2 Definitions of “Public Works” and “Infrastructure” 1

1.3 Examples of Infrastructure Projects 2

1.4 Categories of Public Infrastructure Projects 3

1.5 Typical Infrastructure Planning Steps 3

1.6 Goals and Objectives 4

1.7 Programming and Budgeting Process of Public Works Agencies 4

1.8 Evolution of Infrastructure Planning Process 5

The Evolution and History of Modern Public Works Planning 5

The Changing U.S.Federal Role in Infrastructure Planning 6

Development of the Modern Infrastructure Planning Process 7

The Effect of 9/11 on Planning 7

1.9 Relationships between Infrastructure and Development 8

1.10 Several Important Principles for Project Designs in Developing Countries 9

1.11 Federal Infrastructure Strategy Program 10

1.12 Infrastructure Asset Management 12

2 Planning Contexts，Perspectives，and Objectives 15

2.1 Scope 15

Some Words of Caution！ 15

2.2 Planning Sequences 15

2.3 Basic Contexts for Planning Public Works and Infrastructure 16

2.4 Some Important Perspectives for Public Works and Infrastructure 20

Additional Important Considerations in Infrastructure Planning 25

2.5 Previously Mentioned “New” Objectives and Issues 26

2.6 Economic Objectives in the United States 27

2.7 Infrastructure Programs Which Do Not Require Benefit-Cost Analysis 29

2.8 Private Enterprises and Infrastructure Planning 30

2.9 System of Law 31

2.10 Federal Law 32

2.11 State and Local Law 32

2.12 Eminent Domain and Zoning 33

2.13 Water Rights 34

2.14 Other Comments Concerning Legal and Institutional Issues 34

3 Planning and Appraisal of Major Infrastructure Projects 37

3.1 Scope 37

3.2 Sequence of Studies for a Single Major Infrastructure Project 38

3.3 First Stage：Preliminary （or Reconnaissance） Report 38

3.4 Second Stage：Feasibility Report 39

3.5 Third Stage：Final Design and Preparation of Contract Documents 42

3.6 Fourth Stage：Construction 43

3.7 Fifth Stage：Operation 43

3.8 Formulation of a Major Engineering Project 43

3.9 Project Costs 45

Format of Budget Estimate of Investment Cost 45

Estimate of Annual Cost 47

Components of Project Construction and Investment Costs 48

Components of Annual Costs 51

Use of Indexes to Adjust Cost Estimates 53

3.10 Costs for Professional Planning and Construction Services 54

3.11 Appraisal Process Before Approval of a Major Project 57

3.12 Project Delivery Methods 57

Introduction 57

Features of Principal Types of Project Delivery Methods 58

Project Contract Types 58

Traditional Project Delivery Methods 59

Alternative Project Delivery Methods 59

4 Screening Projects and Master Planning 61

4.1 Scope 61

4.2 Planning Area 61

4.3 Needs，Problems，and Opportunities in Planning Studies 62

4.4 Screening Procedure for Single-Purpose Projects—Emphasis on Function，Engineering Factors，and Cost 63

4.5 Case Study：Screening Procedure for Single-Purpose Projects—Emphasis on Function and Environmental/Social Factors 66

4.6 Screening Procedure for Projects within a System，and for Projects That Serve Multiple Purposes and/or Multiple Objectives 68

4.7 Concepts of Master Planning Reports for a Defined Geographic Area 68

4.8 Hypothetical Master Planning Report as Synthesis of Numerous Comprehensive Studies 69

4.9 Review and Adjustment of Data for Master and Regional Planning 71

4.10 Case Study—Review and Adjustment of Proposals Prepared by Different Planners 72

5 Municipal Infrastructure Systems—Performance and Prioritization Measures 75

5.1 Scope 75

5.2 Measures of System Performance of Various Public Works Elements and Types—National Research Council Studies 75

5.3 Trade-Offs between Repair，Renewals and Replacements，and New Construction 79

5.4 Cost-Effectiveness Measures for Projects of a Routine Nature 89

5.5 Prioritization of Projects for Maintenance，Rehabilitation，and Replacement of Local Infrastructure Systems—Urban Institute Studies 90

5.6 Data Collection and Analysis for Decision Making—Case Studies of Water Distribution Systems 93

6 Comparisons of Infrastructure Alternatives 103

6.1 Scope 103

6.2 Methods for Comparing and Prioritizing Infrastructure Alternatives 104

6.3 Formulas Involving Discount Rate and Use of Spreadsheets 104

6.4 Examples Showing Solutions of Problems Involving Comparisons of Public Works Alternatives，Using Interest Formulas and Spreadsheets 106

Some Variations of the Examples and the Use of Conversion Formulas 108

6.5 Levelized Unit Cost or Price 110

6.6 Life-Cycle Analysis 110

6.7 Life-Cycle Analysis of Pavement Schemes 112

6.8 Comparing Alternatives with Multiple Attributes 114

6.9 Generic Matrix Approach for Comparing Alternatives with Multiple Attributes 115

Introduction 119

Implementation of Six-Step Method 119

7 Planning Aids 123

7.1 Scope 123

Some Words of Caution！ 123

7.2 Basic Data for Planning 124

7.3 Classification of Data 124

7.4 Aerial Photos，Remote Sensing，GPS，and Satellites 125

7.5 Geographic Information Systems （GIS） 126

7.6 Computer-Aided Design （CAD） 126

7.7 Computerized Data Banks and Displays 127

7.8 Overlays and Other Techniques for Suitability Mapping 127

7.9 Generalized Estimates 127

7.10 Forecasting Models for Infrastructure Planning 129

7.11 Population Projections and Other Demographic Studies 130

Population Studies-Basic Concepts 131

Brief Descriptions of the Principal Methods of Population Projection 132

Discussion and Examples of Population Projections 133

Demographic Impact of Infrastructure Projects 136

8 Financial Analyses 137

8.1 Scope 137

8.2 Types of Financial Analyses 137

8.3 General Principles for Application of Financial Analyses 138

8.4 Financial Analyses for a Municipal Water Supply Project 139

8.5 Financial Analyses for Project with Different Sponsorships 147

Features of the Tables 148

Financial Results 149

Sensitivity and Risk Analyses 150

8.6 Financial Analyses with Multiple Financing Sources 152

Project Arrangement 153

Scheme Assumed for Financing 153

Repayment of Main Supply System Costs 154

8.7 Break-Even Points as Financial Indicators 156

8.8 Management of Debt Service Based on Financial Analysis 158

8.9 Cost Allocations and Subsidies 159

Subsidies for Federal Water Resources Projects 160

Subsidies for Transportation 160

Deficiencies of Subsidy Programs 160

8.10 Accounting for Inflation in Financial Analyses 161

8.11 Financial Issues for Local Governments 161

8.12 Financial Analyses of Privatization Schemes 164

8.13 The Privatization Movement 168

8.14 Privatization of Existing Public Works 171

8.15 Outsourcing （Contracting Out of Public Services） 172

8.16 Accounting Documents and Issues 174

9 Economic Analyses—Concepts 177

9.1 Scope 177

9.2 General Concepts of Economic Analysis for Public Works 178

General Concepts 178

Special Considerations in Economic Analysis 179

9.3 Some Principles of Methodologies for Economic Analysis of Public Works 180

9.4 Examples of Benefits Conforming to the Measurement Standard 183

9.5 Practical Methodologies Incorporating Multiple Objectives 183

9.6 Price Elasticity 184

9.7 Preferred Scale of Development （Considering Only Economic Efficiency） 184

9.8 Benefit-Cost Ratio and Other Measures for Ranking Projects in the United States 186

9.9 Characteristics of Benefit-Cost Ratio and Internal Rate of Return 187

9.10 Selection of Discount （Interest） Rate 187

9.11 Accounting for Inflation in Economic Analysis 188

9.12 Accounting for External Economies and Diseconomies in Economic Analysis 189

9.13 With-and-Without Basis of Analysis—The Base Case （No Action Alternative） 189

9.14 Local Infrastructure Costs as a Consideration in Economic Analysis 189

9.15 Value of Human Life as a Consideration in Economic Analysis 190

9.16 Application of Shadow Pricing in Economic Analysis 190

9.17 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty in Economic Analysis 192

Benefit-Cost Analyses That Consider the Frequencies of Natural Events 193

Economic Allowance for Catastrophic Events 194

Benefit-Cost Analyses When Benefits and/or Costs or Their Components Have Probability Distributions 195

9.18 Allocation of Costs of Multipurpose Projects 195

Introduction 195

SCRB Method 196

9.19 Models for Estimating Economic Effects due to Infrastructure Development 198

Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Analyses 198

10 Economic Analyses—Applications 199

10.1 Scope 199

10.2 Scope of Evaluations and Costs and Benefits 199

10.3 Format for Benefit-Cost Calculations 200

10.4 Example of Benefit-Cost Analysis of Municipal Water Supply 203

10.5 Examples of Benefit-Cost Analyses of Transportation Projects 206

User Benefit Analysis for Highways 206

Example of User Benefit Analysis Using the AASHTO Guidelines 208

10.6 Examples of Benefit-Cost Analyses That Illustrate Differences with Government or Private Sponsorship 213

Isolated Power Project 214

10.7 Example of Benefit-Cost Analysis with Application of Probability Analysis 216

10.8 Example of Benefit-Cost Analysis with Application of Sensitivity Analysis 218

10.9 Example of Cost Allocation for Facility Serving Multiple Purposes and/or Multiple Projects 220

10.10 Examples Comparing Benefit-Cost Analysis with Sufficiency Ratings and Cost-Effectiveness Measures 221

10.11 I-O Analysis of Benefits for Estimate of B/C Ratio 222

11 Environmental and Social Impact Assessment—Concepts，Requirements，and Procedures 225

11.1 Scope 225

11.2 General Concepts of Environmental and Social Impact Assessment 226

11.3 United States Laws，Regulations，and Policies Regarding Environmental and Social Impact Assessments 232

11.4 CEQ Guidelines for Environmental Impact Statements 232

11.5 Interpretation of NEPA and CEQ Rules 236

11.6 EPA Role in EIA and EIS Process 236

11.7 Scopingforthe EIS 238

11.8 The Ecological and Human Environments—Categories，Attributes，and Parameters 239

11.9 Identification of Environmental and Social Impacts over Project Area and over Project Cycle 240

11.10 Special Considerations Involving Land and Water Interrelationships，Energy Consumption，and Air Quality 241

11.11 Comparison of Project Alternatives Involving Environmental and Social Impacts，Including Examples 242

12 Environmental and Social Impact Assessment—Additional Analysis and Issues 245

12.1 Scope 245

12.2 Concepts of Human Environment，Human Well-Being，Social Well-Being，Social Welfare，and Quality of Life 246

12.3 Relationships Involving Infrastructure，Quality of Life，Business Development，and Urban Growth 247

12.4 Scope of Social Impact Assessments 247

12.5 Environmental Justice 249

12.6 Sustainability and Environmental Economics 250

12.7 Environmental Economics—General Concepts 251

12.8 Studies by Government Agencies on Environmental Economics 252

12.9 Cost-Effectiveness Basis for Meeting Environmental Quality Objectives 252

12.10 Benefit-Cost Basis for Environmental Planning 254

12.11 Role of Public Involvement in Planning 255

12.12 Purposes and Beneefits of Public Participation 255

12.13 Requirements for Public Participation 256

12.14 Factors That Contribute to Effective Participation 256

12.15 Descriptions of Public Participation and Education Techniques 257

12.16 Case Study—New Hampshire Route 16 Corridor Study 257

13 Sustainability 265

13.1 Introduction and Scope 265

13.2 Historical Context 266

Conservation Movement 266

Environmental Movement 267

Global Warming Concerns 267

13.3 Sustainable Development and Sustainabity 268

13.4 Dimensions of Sustainabityty 270

Social and Environmental Dimensions of Sustainabity 270

Economic Dimensions of Sustainability 271

13.5 Weak and Strong Sustainability 271

13.6 Sustainability Models 271

13.7 Approaches to Sustainability Issues in Infrastructure Planning 272

13.8 Global Implications of Sustainability 274

13.9 Sustainability Indexes 279

14 Planning for Uncertainty and Risk 285

14.1 Scope 285

14.2 Uncertainty，Sensitivity，and Risk：Recapitulation of Concepts and Case Studies 285

14.3 Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in Planning Organizations 285

14.4 Selection of Parameters for Risk Analysis 288

14.5 Accounting for Unforeseen Changes and Events 289

14.6 Common Sense and Intuition in Decision Making 290

Six Criteria for an Effective Decision-Making Process 290

Eight Keys to Effective Decision-Making 291

14.7 Decision Theory 292

Some Basic Concepts and Terms of Decision Analysis，Including the Payoff Matrix 292

14.8 Utility Theory 294

Paradigm of Decision Analysis Using Decision Trees 295

14.9 Decision Analysis Approaches 297

14.10 Example of a Decision Tree Analysis for Infrastructure Planning 298

14.11 Application of Bayes Theorem to Decision Tree Problems 299

14.12 Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） for Comparing Alternatives with Multiple Attributes 302

Concepts of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Summary Description of Methodology 303

Case Study of Hypothetical Water Resources Project in Developing Country 303

Some Methodological Details of the Case Study 307

Appropriateness of the AHP 309

Applications of AHP 309

14.13 Other Infrastructure Planning Applications That Consider Uncertainty 311

15 Operations Research Methods for Planning and Analysis 313

15.1 Scope 313

15.2 Nature and Applicability of Mathematical Models 313

15.3 Mathematical Programming Models 316

Linear Programming 316

Dynamic Programming 319

Other Optimization Techniques for Mathematical Programming Problems 321

15.4 Simulation Models 321

15.5 Applicability of Mathematical Models with Multiple Objectives and/or Criteria 325

15.6 Artificial Intelligence Systems 328

Fuzzy Logic and Its Use for AI Systems 329

Programming Languages 330

Example of Application of AI Methods to Project Operation 331

15.7 Decision Support Models：Expert Systems 332

General Concepts of Expert Systems 332

Expert Systems for Infrastructure Evaluation and Repair 333

15.8 Other Tools for Economic Models 335

Econometric Models 335

Export/Economic-Base Models 335

Multipliers and Accelerators 337

Simulation/Dynamic Models 338

Linking of Models 339

Problems 341

References 371

Index 391