第1章 可靠性工程概论 1
1.1 Reliability 1
1.2 Significance of Reliability Engineering 1
Chapter 1 An Introduction to Reliability Engineering 1
1.1 可靠性 1
1.2 可靠性工程的意义 1
1.3 可靠性的特点 4
1.3 Features of Reliability 4
1.4 可靠性工程的技术内涵 6
1.4 Technical Intension of Reliability 6
1.5 可靠性和质量管理 8
1.5 Reliability and Quality Control 8
第2章 故障模型和可靠性函数 9
2.1 概述 9
2.2 可靠函数之间的关系 9
2.2 Relations Between the Different Reliability Functions 9
2.1 Introduction 9
Chapter 2 Failure Models and Reliability Functions 9
2.3 Alternative Approach to Reliability Functions 10
2.3 推导可靠函数的另一种思路 10
2.4 典型故障率函数 11
2.4 Typical Failure Function 11
2.5 Cumulative Failure Functions and Average Failure Rate 13
2.5 积累故障函数和平均故障率 13
2.6 Binomial Distribution 15
2.6 二项分布 15
2.7 The Poisson Distribution 17
2.7 泊松分布 17
2.8 指数分布 18
2.8 The Exponential Distribution 18
2.9 正态分布 19
2.9 The Normal Distribution 19
2.10 The Weibull Distribution 21
2.10 威布尔分布 21
2.11 对数正态分布 25
2.11 The Lognormal Distribution 25
2.12 极值分布 26
2.12 Extreme-Value Distrubution 26
2.13 The Strength-Stress Model Based on Normal Distribution 29
2.13.1 Safety Factor Method 29
2.13 基于正态分布的强度应力模型 29
2.13.1 安全系数法 29
2.13.2 Strength-Stress Model 30
2.13.2 强度应力模型 30
2.13.3 Some Engineering Regulations 33
2.14 基于对数正态分布的强度应力模型 33
2.13.3 若干工程规定 33
2.14 The Strength-Stress Model Based on Lognormal Distribution 33
2.14.2 两个对数正态分布的随机变量的差的分布及其性质 34
2.14.1 Nature of Lognormal Distribution Function 34
2.14.2 Distribution of Difference of Two Random Variables Distributed Lognormally 34
2.14.1 对数正态分布函数的基本性质 34
2.14.3 Cumulative Probability Distribution FunctionPf=P(Z<1) 36
2.14.3 积累概率分布函数Pf=P(Z<1)的表达式及曲线 36
2.14.4 杆塔算例 37
2.14.4 Reliability Calcutation of Tower of Transmission Line 37
Exercises 38
2.15 小结 38
习题 38
2.15 Summary 38
Chapter 3 Reliability Analysis of Non-repairable System 42
3.1 Introduction 42
第3章 不可修复系统的可靠性分析 42
3.1 概述 42
3.2 串联系统与并联系统分析 44
3.2.1 串联系统 44
3.2.1 Series System 44
3.2 Series and Parallel Systems 44
3.2.2 Parallel System 47
3.2.2 并联系统 47
3.3 储备系统 51
3.3.1 完全切换的储备系统 51
3.3 Standby System 51
3.3.1 Standby System with Perfect Switching 51
3.3.2 不完全切换的储备系统 52
3.3.2 Standby System with Imperfect Switching 52
3.4 k/n(G)系统 53
3.4 An k-out-of-n System 53
3.5 应用布尔展开定理分析复杂系统的可靠性 55
3.5 Reliability Evaluation of Complex System Using Boolean Expension Rules 55
3.6 应用全概率公式分析复杂系统的可靠性 57
3.6 Reliability Evaluation of Complex System Using Decomposition Method 57
3.7.1 Basic Concepts of Graphs 60
3.7 Determination of System Reliability Using Minimum Path Sets 60
3.7.1 图的基本概念 60
3.7 用最小路集法求系统的工作概率 60
3.7.2 Determination of Minimum Path Sets of a System 61
3.7.2 求网络最小路的方法 61
3.7.3 Accurate Method for Determination of System Reliability Using Minimum Path Sets 66
3.7.3 由最小路集求系统可靠工作概率的准确方法 66
3.8 Determination of System Unreliability Using Minimum Cut Sets 69
3.8.1 Basic Cncepts 69
3.8 用最小割集法求系统的故障概率 69
3.8.1 基本概念 69
3.8.2 Determination of Minimum Cut Sets Using Minimum Path Sets 71
3.8.2 由最小路集求最小割集的方法 71
3.8.3 由最小割集求系统失效概率的准确方法 74
3.8.3 Accurate Method for Determination of System Unreliability Using Minimum Cut Sets 74
3.8.4 Approximate Method for Determination of System Unreliability Using Minimum Cut Sets 76
3.8.4 由最小割集求系统失效概率的近似方法 76
3.9 故障树分析法 77
3.9 Fault Tree Analysis 77
3.9.1 简介 77
3.9.1 Brief Introduction 77
3.9.2 Implementation 78
3.9.2 实施步骤 78
3.10 Failure Modes，Effects and Criticality Analysis（FMECA） 82
3.10 故障模式、影响和危险度分析 82
3.11 Reliability of Three-State Systems 84
3.11 三态系统的可靠性 84
3.11.1 Series Systems 85
3.11.1 串联系统 85
3.11.2 Parallel Systems 86
3.11.3 Series-Parallel Systems 86
3.11.3 串联-并联系统 86
3.11.2 并联系统 86
3.11.4 Parallel-Series Systems 87
3.11.4 并联-串联系统 87
Exercises 88
3.12 小结 88
习题 88
3.12 Summary 88
4.1.1 Deterministic Process and Probabilistic Process 93
Chapter 4 Markov Process 93
4.1 Basic Concepts of Stochastic Process 93
4.1.2 Stochastic Process 93
4.1.2 随机过程 93
4.1.1 确定性过程与非确定性过程 93
4.1 随机过程的概念 93
第4章 马尔柯夫过程 93
4.2 Markov Process 96
4.2 马尔柯夫过程 96
4.3 Method for Determination of State Probability of Repairable Components Using Markov Process 101
4.3 应用马尔柯夫过程求可修复元件状态概率的一般方法 101
4.4.1 One-step Transfer Probability Matrix and m-step Transfer Probability Matrix 109
4.4 马尔柯夫链 109
4.4 Markov Chain 109
4.4.1 一步转换概率矩阵和m步转移概率矩阵 109
4.4.2 平稳状态概率 110
4.4.2 Stable State Probability 110
Exercises 118
4.5 Summary 118
4.5 小结 118
习题 118
5.1 Introduction 121
Chapter 5 Reliability Evaluation of Repairable Systems 121
第5章 可修复系统的可靠性分析法 121
5.1 概述 121
5.2 Frequency and Duration Technique 122
5.2 频率和持续时间法 122
5.3 吸收状态及平均首次故障时间 131
5.3 Absorbing State and Mean Time to First Failure 131
5.4 状态的合并 137
5.4 Merging of States 137
5.5 Mixed Product Approach 142
5.5 混合乘积法 142
5.6 Approximation for Components in Series 145
5.6 串联等值 145
5.7 并联等值 147
5.7 Approximation for Components in Parallel 147
5.8 r/n系统等值 150
5.8 Approximation for a r-our-of-n System 150
5.9.1 Single Component 151
5.9 考虑天气影响时的可靠性估计 151
5.9.1 单个元件 151
5.9 Reliability Evaluation Considering Influence of Weather 151
5.9.3 Components in Parallel 155
5.9.2 Components in Series 155
5.9.2 串联元件 155
5.9.3 并联元件 155
5.10 计划检修停运 157
5.10.1 元件串联 157
5.10 Scheduled Maintenance Outages 157
5.10.1 Components in Series 157
5.10.2 Two Components in Parallel 158
5.11 Overload Outages 158
5.10.2 两元件并联 158
5.11 过负荷停运 158
5.12 总的停运率 159
5.12 Total Outage Rate 159
5.13 Common-Mode Failures 164
5.13 共同模式故障 164
5.13.1 Basic Concepts 165
5.13.1 两个可靠性不同的元件并联的共同模式故障分析 165
5.13.2 Two Components in Parallel Considering Common-Mode Failure 166
5.13.2 两个相同元件并联，考虑共模故障 166
5.13.3 An r-out-of-n System Considering Common-Mode Failure 167
5.13.3 在r/n系统中考虑共同模式故障 167
5.14 Nonexponential Repair times 169
5.14.1 Method of Supplementary Variables 169
5.14 非指数分布的修复时间 169
5.14.1 追加变量法 169
5.14.2 分级法 171
5.14.2 Method of Stages 171
5.15 Summary 175
5.15 小结 175
Exercises 176
习题 176
Chapter 6 Reliability of Softwares 184
6.1 Basic Concepts 184
6.2 Product Measures and Process Measures 184
第6章 软件可靠性 184
6.1 基本概念 184
6.2 产品度量和过程度量 184
6.3 Defect Density and Fault Density 185
6.3 缺陷密度和障碍密度 185
6.4 Software Science Measures 186
6.4 软件科学度量 186
6.5 Failure Rate and Mean Time To Failure 187
6.5 故障率和平均无故障时间 187
6.6 需要的软件可靠性 188
6.6 Required Software Reliability（RELY） 188
6.7 Run Reliability and System Performance Reliability 190
6.7 运行可靠性和系统行为可靠性 190
6.8 Independent Process Reliability 191
6.8 独立过程可靠性 191
6.9 Reliability Growth Function 191
6.9 可靠性增长函数 191
6.10 Reliability Models of Common Hardwares 192
6.10 公共硬件模型 192
6.11 小结 196
6.11 Summary 196
Chapter 7 Coordination of Reliability and Economics 197
第7章 可靠性与经济性的协调 197
7.1 概述 197
7.1 Introduction 197
7.2 冗余经济学 198
7.2 Redundancy Economics 198
7.3 元件冗余方案的成本最小化 199
7.3 Cost Miniminzation for the Unit Redundancy Configuration 199
7.4 The Economics of Repair and Maintenance 202
7.4 修理和维修的经济学 202
7.5 Availability Analysis 206
7.5 可用率分析 206
7.6 停电损失 208
7.6 Outage Cost 208
7.6.1 Influences of Outage 208
7.6.1 停电影响 208
7.6.3 Evaluation Methods for Outage Losses in Various Countries 209
7.6.2 Classification of Outage Losses 209
7.6.3 各国停电损失的估算方法 209
7.6.2 停电损失的分类 209
7.7 Values of Outage Losses in Various Countries 212
7.7 各国停电损失值的估计 212
7.8.1 Clasification and Transformation of Time Value of Currency 214
7.8 货币时值的计算及经济分析方法 214
7.8.1 货币时值的分类及折算 214
7.8 Calculation of Time Value of Currency and Methods for Economics Analysis 214
7.8.2 经济分析中常用的比较方法 215
7.8.2 Methods for Comparison of Economics Analysis 215
7.9 Mothodology of Evaluation of Outage Cost Suited for China 216
7.9 适用于中国的停电损失评估方法 216
7.9.2 产电比法 217
7.9.1 平均电价折算倍数法 217
7.9.1 Evaluation of Outage Cost Based on Ratio of Average Electricity Price 217
7.9.2 Evaluation of Outage Cost Based on Ratio of Unit Output Value to Electricity Consumption 217
7.9.3 Evaluation of Outage Cost Based on Total Owning Cost 223
7.9.3 总拥有费用法 223
7.10.1 Initial Data 224
7.10 停电损失经济计算案例分析 224
7.10.1 原始数据 224
7.10 Case Study for Outage Cost Evaluation 224
7.10.3 四种因素对总拥有费用的影响 225
7.10.2 Outage Cost Evaluation 225
7.10.3 Analysis of Impacts of 4 Factors on Total Owning Cost 225
7.10.2 停电损失费用估计 225
7.11 Summary 228
Exercises 228
习题 228
7.11 小结 228
8.1 概述 231
第8章 电力变压器的可靠性 231
8.1 Introduction 231
Chapter 8 Reliability of Power Transformers 231
8.2 Reliability Indices Evaluation of Power Transformers Based on Statistics 232
8.2 基于统计的电力变压器可靠性指标评估 232
8.3 Reliability Indices of Power Transformers in China 233
8.3 中国电力变压器的统计可靠性指标 233
8.4 Analysis of Aging Mechanism for Small and Medium Size Power Transformers with Sealed Oil 235
8.4 中小型密封油浸变压器老化机理分析 235
8.5 Detecting Dp Based on Accelerated Lifetime Experiments 239
8.5 绝缘纸老化过程中Dp值的实验测定 239
8.6 Lifetime Evaluation of Small and Medium Size Power Transformers 240
8.6 中小型电力变压器寿命估计 240
8.7 Summary 243
8.7 小结 243
References 244
参考文献 244
Answers to the exercises 245
习题答案 245
Appendixes 249
Appendix1 Values of Typical Functions 249
附录1 典型函数数值表 249
附录 249
Appendix2 Statistics of Ratio of Unit Output Value to Electricity Consumption of Nine Industries in China in 1998 255
附录2 1998年中国9个典型行业产电比统计值 255