第一章 宏观经济波动的微观经济基础 1
一、国有企业激励约束机制发生变化 1
1．Changes of Incentive and Restrictive Mechanism for SOEs 1
Chapter1 Micro Base of Macro Fluctuation 1
Preface Market-oriented Reform and Macro-economic Stability 1
前言 市场化与宏观经济稳定 1
二、国有企业成本收益最大化 8
2．Cost-benefit Maximization of SOEs 8
三、国有企业的高负债行为 14
3．Heavy Indebtedness Behavior of SOEs 14
4．Interaction between the Behavior of Non-stateowned-economy and Macro Economy 20
四、非国有经济行为与宏观经济的互动影响 20
1．Basic Judgement 29
Chapter2 the Basic State of Macro-ceonomic Operation 29
第二章 宏观经济运行的基本态势 29
一、基本判断 29
2．Supply-side Analysis 35
二、供给面分析 35
3．Demand-side Analysis 41
三、需求面分析 41
4．Macro-control Policy Analysis 49
四、政策调控分析 49
1．Statement of the Problem 59
Chapter3 Income Difference，Interest Rate and Consumption 59
一、问题的提出 59
第三章 收入差异、利率和消费 59
2．Analysis of the Determinant Variables of Consumer s Behavior 62
二、消费者行为决定变量的分析 62
3．Income Growth，Difference，Uncertainty and the Effect of Interest Rate on Consumption and Savings 65
三、收入增长、差异、不确定及利率对消费和储蓄的影响 65
4．Macro-effect of Consumption Behavior and Policy Choice 71
四、消费行为的宏观效果与政策选择 71
一、体制变革与投资 74
Chapter4 System，Investment and Macro Fluctuation 74
第四章 体制、投资与宏观波动 74
1．System Transformation and Investment 74
二、国有及非国有投资与增长周期 76
2．State-owned and Non-state-owned Investment and Growth Cycle 76
三、经济运行：投资与其他因素的比较 81
3．Economic Operation：a Comparison between Investment and other Factors 81
四、投资与经济增长及物价：经验检验 87
4．Investment and Economic Growth and Price：Empirical Test 87
五、投资启动与宏观经济政策选择 91
5．Investment Start-up and Macro-economic Policy Choice 91
Chapter5 Trade Shock and Macro Stability 95
一、短期波动 95
第五章 外贸冲击与宏观稳定 95
1．Short-term Fluctuation 95
二、长期趋势 107
2．Long-term Trend 107
三、贸易自由化浪潮 119
3．the Wave of Trade Liberalization 119
1．Real Unemployment Scale and Unemployment Rate 136
Chapter6 Unemployment in Economic Growth 136
一、真实失业规模和失业率 136
第六章 经济增长中的失业及其治理 136
二、总量性失业、行业垄断性失业与制度性失业 145
2．Aggregate-related Unemployment，Industry-monopolyrelated Unemployment and Institution-related Unemployment 145
三、中国宏观失业模型及其政策涵义 152
3．China s Macro Unemployment Model and its Policy Implications 152
Chapter7 Fiscal System Reform and Macro-ceonomic Stability 163
1．Stability is a Kind of Public Goods 163
一、稳定是一种公共物品 163
第七章 财政制度变革与宏观经济稳定 163
2．Stabilizing Function of Public Finance 167
二、财政的稳定功能 167
3．Stability-aimed Fiscal System Reform 170
三、为了稳定的财政改革 170
4．Stability Implication of the Changes from Fiscal Decentralization to Tax Division System 179
四、从分灶吃饭到分税制的稳定涵义 179
5．Expansionary Fiscal Policy and Investment Multiplier 183
五、扩张性财政政策与投资乘数 183
6．Tax Rate，Expected Profit and Fiscal Policy 189
六、税率、预期利润与财政政策 189
7．Efficiency Loss and Macro Outcome of Unfair Tax Burden 196
七、税负不公平的效率损失与宏观结果 196
8．Macro Fiscal Policy Combined with Market-oriented Reform 200
八、与市场化改革相结合的宏观财政政策 200
1．1990s：Finance-leading Economic Cycle 206
Chapter8 Financial Growth，Financial Structure and Physical(Real)Economy 206
第八章 金融增长、金融结构与实质经济 206
一、90年代：金融主导的经济周期 206
二、金融增长中的金融深化和金融泡沫 208
2．Financial Deepening and Financial Bubble in Financial Growth 208
3．Macro Stability and Innovation-blocked under the Condition of Restricted Competition 217
三、受限制竞争下的宏观稳定和创新受阻 217
四、符号经济和实质经济 224
4．Symbol Economy and Physical (Real)Economy 224
第九章 人民币汇率变动与宏观经济稳定 230
Chapter9 RMB Exchange Rate Changes and Micro-economic Stability 230
1．Nominal Exchange Rate of RMB 230
一、人民币名义汇率 230
2．Real Exchange Rate of RMB 236
二、人民币实际汇率 236
3．Interest Rate Parity and a Balance between Domestic and Foreign Economy 247
三、利率平价与国内外经济平衡 247
Chapter10 the Issue of Inflation and Unemployment 292
1．China s Inflation and Unemployment：Unverifiable Relations 292
一、中国的通货膨胀与失业：无法证实的关系 292
第十章 通货膨胀与失业 292
二、双轨制：通货膨胀的制度背景 313
2．Dual Track System：Institutional Background against Inflation 313
3．Aggregate Demand Function 320
三、总需求函数 320
四、总供给函数 330
4．Aggregate Supply Function 330
5．Determinant of Inflation Rate 338
五、通货膨胀率的决定 338
Chapter11 Institution Shock and Deflation 355
第十一章 制度冲击、贸易冲击与通货紧缩 355
1．Clearing the Doubt about Deflation 356
一、通货紧缩释疑 356
2．Modest Variation Range of Deflation and a Historical Review of China s Deflation 361
二、通货紧缩的适度区间与中国通货紧缩的历史考察 361
3．Institution Shock，Trade Shock and an Analysis of Forming Mechanism of Deflation 364
三、制度冲击、贸易冲击与通货紧缩形成的机理分析 364
4．Effect of Deflation 377
四、通货紧缩的影响 377
5．Conclusions 381
五、结论 381
1．Fluctuation of China s Macro-economy in 1990s 385
Chapter12 Fluctuation，Expectation and Macro Stability Policy 385
第十二章 波动、预期与宏观稳定政策工具 385
一、90年代中国宏观经济的波动 385
2．Expectation and Positive Feedback：Behavior of the Public Facing Market Fluctuation 397
二、预期与正反馈：面对市场波动的公众行为 397
3．Policy Tools for Macro Stability 405
三、宏观稳定的政策工具 405
1．Economic Development Pattern of Countries in Transition and Developing Countries：History and Reality 424
Chapter13 Transition and Development 424
第十三章 转型与发展——转型国家与发展中国家的宏观经济特征与政策 424
一、转型国家及发展中国家的经济发展模式：历史与现实 424
2．the Role of Government in Economic Development：Development and Obstruction 429
二、政府在经济发展中的作用：发展与阻碍 429
3．Income Distribution among Regions and Inhabitants：Hypothesis and the Test of it 432
三、收入在地区和居民之间的分配：假说与检验 432
4．Foreign Trade，Capital Flow and External Debt：Shock and Reaction 436
四、国际贸易、资本流动与外债：冲击与反应 436
5．Conclusions 438
五、结论 438