序＆谷书堂 1
Abstract 1
1 Introduction 1
Preface＆Gu Shu-Tang 1
1 导言 1
内容提要 1
2 发展中国家债务经济的过渡问题 14
2 Issues Concerning Transition of LDC S Debt Economy 14
2．1 关于LDC3债务经济能否顺利过渡的争论 15
2．1．1 问题的由来 15
2．1．1 Origin of controversy 15
2．1 Controversy with regard to Transition of LDC s Debt Economy 15
2．1．2 肯定的意见 17
2．1．2 Positive opinions 17
2．1．3 否定的意见 18
2．1．3 Negative opinions 18
2．1．4 简要评论 21
2．1．4 A brief comment 21
2．2 A Corrected Understanding of International Capital 22
2．2 对国际资本的再认识 22
2．2．1 Its main characteristics 24
2．2．1 国际资本的主要特点 24
2．2．2 变化了的国际资本性质 26
2．2．2 Its changing nature 26
2．2．3 Its historical role 35
2．2．3 国际资本的历史作用 35
2．3．1 The crux of debt crisis and its causes in the 1980s 39
2．3 Comprehensive Analysis of LDC s Debt Crisis 39
2．3．1 债务危机的实质和80年代债务危机的原因 39
2．3 LDC3债务危机透视 39
2．3．2 The role of debt crisis in stimulating policy reform 46
2．3．2 债务危机促进政策转化的作用 46
2．3．3 Debt crisis and internationally economic co-operation 49
2．3．3 从债务危机看国际经济合作 49
3 外债作用于经济增长的基本原理 55
3 Fundamentals of External Debt s Acting on Economy Growth 55
3．1．1 卡莱茨基经济增长模型 55
3．1 政策困境与外债发生 55
3．1．1 Kaleck s model of ectonomic development 55
3．1 Policy Dilemma and Debt Occurrence 55
3．1．2 LDC3政府面临的政策困境及解决办法 58
3．1．2 The dilemma faced by LDC s governments and its way out 58
3．1．3 结合外债的经济增长过程的一般意义 60
3．1．3 The significance of growth-cum-debt process 60
3．2．1 储蓄限制的增长—政策困境之一 65
3．2．1 Saving-constraint grouwth: the first dilemma for policymakers 65
3．2 积累与消费的矛盾及其克服 65
3．2 Conflict between Accumlation and Consumption , and Its Overcoming 65
3．2．2 The role of foreign debt in getting rid of thd dilemma 68
3．2．2 有助于政策走出困境的外债 68
3．3 Conflict between Foreign Exchange Revenue and Payment , and Its Overcoming 70
3．3．1 Foreign-exchange-constraint growth: the second dilemma for policymakers 70
3．3 外汇收支的矛盾及其克服 70
3．3．1 外汇限制的增长——政策困境之二 70
3．3．2 打破上述政策困境的逆差战略 72
3．3．2 The role of deficit strategy in getting rid of the dilemma 72
3．4 Structuralist Gap Theory 74
3．4 结构主义的缺口理论 74
3．5 Dynamics and Cycle of Debt 78
3．5 债务动态和债务周期 78
3．5．1 债务动态的一般特点 79
3．5．1 Dynamics of debt; its general characteristics 79
3．5．2 债务周期 84
3．5．2 The cycle of debt 84
4 债务经济的实践与政府作用 86
4 Practice of LDC s debt Economy and Governmental Role 86
4．1 LDC3对缺口理论的实践 87
4．1．1 80年代以前LDC3债务经济实绩 87
4．1．1 Performance of LDC s debt economy before 1980 s 87
4．1 LDC s Putting Gap Theory to Work 87
4．1．2近10年来LDC3债务经济实况 90
4．1．2 Performance of LDC s debt economy in the latest decade 90
4．1．3 Misunderstanding of the gap-theory and serious involvement of international debt 94
4．1．3 错误理解缺口理论和严重卷入国际债务 94
4．2．1 阿根廷类型的债务经济政策 100
4．2．1 Debt policy of Argentina 100
4．2 Tow Different Kinds of Debt Policies 100
4．2 债务经济政策比较 100
4．2．2 Debt policy of S.Korea 106
4．2．2 韩国类型的债务经济政策 106
4．2．3 Criteria of a sound debt economy of LDC s 112
4．2．3 LDC3健全债务经济政策的一般标准 112
4．3．1 Effective control of financial deficit 114
4．3 政府在债务经济中的作用 114
4．3．1 有效控制财政赤字 114
4．3 Governmental Role in Debt Economy 114
4．3．2 Strict manipulation of the uses of debt fund 119
4．3．2 严格把握债务资金的使用方向和使用效率 119
4．3．3 Gradual expansion of public savings 124
4．3．3 逐步扩大公共储蓄规模 124
4．3．4 Positive development of forign trade 127
4．3．4 积极发展对外贸易 127
4．3．5 小结 130
4．3．5 Summary 130
5．1．1 80年代以前国际债务关系的沿革 131
5 中国债务经济的发展 131
5．1 1949——1979年的中国债务经济 131
5．1．1 Evolution of international debt relation in China before 1980 s 131
5．1 China s Debt Economy from 1948 to 1979 131
5 Development of China s Debt Economy 131
5．1．2 Experiences and lessons 135
5．1．2 经验和教训 135
5．2 China s Debt Economy in 1990 s 140
5．2 80年代的中国债务经济 140
5．2．1 Development of international debt relation in 1980 s 140
5．2．1 80年代对外债务关系发展的一般状况 140
5．2．2 Some observable problems 149
5．2．2 可观察到的一些问题 149
5．2．3 External debt s inpact on economic growth and stability 160
5．2．3 就外债运用对经济增长和稳定作用所做的估计 160
5．2．4 80年代中国债务经济的主要特征 165
5．2．4 Main characteristics of China s debt economy in the 1980 s 165
6 China s Debt Strategy and Programme in 1990 s 168
6．1 Theory of International Creditworth iness 168
6 90年代的中国债务战略与规划 168
6．1 国际信用价值理论 168
6．1．1 国际商业银行贷款政策的基本依据 169
6．1．1 Basis for loaning Policy of International Commercial banks 169
6．1．2 外债、进出口和经济增长的关系 172
6．1．2 External debt,foreign trade and economic growth 172
6．1．3 90年代中国的国际债务战略 178
6．1．3 China s International debt Strategy in the 1990 s 178
6．2．1 The MR=MC model in determining size of external debt 184
6．2 Appropriate Scale of External Debt 184
6．2．1 确定外债规模的MR=MC模型 184
6．2 适度债务规模理论 184
6．2．2 适度外债规模确定的实用办法 189
6．2．2 Determining a moderate size of external debt: some empirical methods 189
6．3 90年代的债务规划 196
6．3 Debt Programme in 1990 s 196
6．3．1 几个不确定因素 197
6．3．1 Some uncertain factors 197
6．3．2 90年代债务规模预测 201
6．3．2 The siza of exteranl debt in the 1990 s : forecast 201
7 Fiscal Policy in Perfect Debt Economy 209
7 健全债务经济的财政政策 209
7．1．1 对80年代中央财政收支变化的分析 210
7．1．1 An analysis of the finacial situation of central government in the 1980 s 210
7．1 变化中的财政政策 210
7．1 Changeable Fiscal Policy 210
7．1．2 实行公共赤字管理的一般意义和现实基础 221
7．1．2 Management of public deficit: its significance and base 221
7．2 Management of Public Deficit in Practising Discretional Fiscal Policy 230
7．2 审慎财政政策中的公共赤字管理 230
7．2．1 Management of public deficit: its main principles 231
7．2．1 公共赤字管理的主要原则 231
7．2．2公共赤字管理的中心任务 240
7．2．2 Management of public deficit : its main task 240
7．3 关于公共赤字维持能力的几个理论问题 250
7．3 Issues about Keeping Public Deficit under Control 250
7．3．1 Nature of governments policy-making behavior 251
7．3．1 政府决策行为的性质 251
7．3．2 Growth , investment and payment of debt 254
7．3．2 增长、 投资与偿债的统一 254
7．3．3 Policy adjustment and stability 259
7．3．3 政策的调整与稳定 259
8 Transfer Policy in Debt Economy 266
8 债务经济之资源转移政策 266
8．1 Development and Trade Policies Aimed at Increasing Structural Superiority of Balance of Payment 268
8．1旨在提高国际收支结构优势的发展与贸易政策 268
8．1．1 发展政策、贸易政策与国际收支结构优势的国际比较 269
8．1．1 Development policy, trade policy and structure of balance of payment : an international comparison 269
8．1．2 An estimation of China s structure of balance of payment in the 1980 s 279
8．1．2 对80年代我国国际收支结构优势的估计 279
8．1．3 Necessary adjustment of development policy in the 1990 s 287
8．1．3 90年代势在必行的发展政策调整 287
8．2 Transter Policy in 1990 s 298
8．2 90年代的资源转移政策 298
8．2．1 Industrial and technological policies 299
8．2．1 产业技术政策 299
8．2．2 Foreign exchange policy, export promotion and import restriction 304
8．2．2 汇率政策与鼓励出口、限制进口 304
8．2．3 Transfer policy emphasizing debt management 312
8．2．3 转移政策强调债务管理 312
9 Concluding Remarks——On public administration in the process of debt economy 319
9 结束语——论债务经济过程的公共行政管理 319
(I) Bibliography in Chinese 329
主要参考文献 329
（I）中文论著 329
(II) Bibliography In English 334
（II）英文论著 334
Postscript 337
后记 337