0．宏观经济理论研究的进展和趋势（代序言） 1
Preface．Recent developments of China macroeconomic theory 1
0．1 A brief review 3
0—1 一个简要的回顾 3
0—2 讨论的主要问题及其进展 6
0．2 Main problems and progress of discussion 6
0—3 几个带有导向性的问题 20
0．3 Important guided problems 20
Chapter I Softlanding:Reform accumulative effect and consistent and stable choice of economic policy 25
1．软着陆：改革的累积效应和一致性稳定政策选择 25
1．1 Steady growth with low-inflation 26
1—1 低通胀下的稳定增长 26
1．2 Accumulative effect with gradual reform 31
1—2 渐进改革的累积效应 31
1—3 持续发展的隐忧 38
1．3 Potential anxiety of sustainable development 38
1．4 Long-run stable policy choice 44
1—4 长期稳定的对策选择 44
Chapter II Macro-economy，financial risk and external shocks 51
2．总量态势、金融风险和外部冲击 51
2．1 Macro-economy s situation:from planned cycle to business cycle 52
2—1 总量态势：从计划周期到商业周期 52
2．2 Financial risk:from symbol economy to real economy 61
2—2 金融风险：从符号经济到实质经济 61
2．3 External shocks:from international trade and foreign exchange policy to Hong Kong economy 75
2—3 外部冲击：从国际贸易和汇率政策到香港经济 75
Chapter III Adjustment:the same theme and inevitable choice 83
3．大调整：一个共同的主题和必然的选择 83
3—1 是周期波动，还是高速增长后的大调整 84
3．1 Fluctuation of cycle or adjustment after high-speed growth 84
3．2 Vast margin of Sustainable development and adjustment characters 94
3—2 持续发展的广阔余地与大调整的性质和特点 94
3．3 Adjustment scopes and directions 100
3—3 大调整的内容和方向 100
3．4 Summary on policy 109
3—4 政策结论 109
4．投资、周期波动与制度性紧缩效应 111
Chapter IV Investment，fluctuation and contrct effect 111
4—1 引言 112
4．1 Introduction 112
4．2 Investment and fluctuation of economic cycle 113
4—2 投资与经济周期波动 113
4—3 投资与“宏观负债” 121
4．3 Investment and liabilities at macro level 121
4．4 policy expansion and institutional contract 124
4—4 工具性扩张与体制性收缩 124
4—5 从发展和改革的角度理解宏观经济政策组合 134
4．5 Macroeconomic policy mix from development and reform 134
5．贸易、资本流动与汇率政策 141
Chapter V Trade，capital flow and exchange rate policy 141
5—1 贸易波动与宏观均衡 142
5．1 Fluctuation of trade and macroscopic balance 142
5．2 Capital flow and macroscopic balance 154
5—2 资本流动与宏观均衡 154
5．3 Trade，investment and the balance of payments 163
5—3 贸易、投资与国际收支 163
5．4 Remarks on theory and policy 170
5—4 理论讨论和政策结论 170
Chapter VI Budget，structural deflation and institutional barriers 176
6．核算性扭曲、结构性通缩与制度性障碍 176
6．1 Chinese puzzle:deflation with economic growth 177
6—1 中国之谜：通货紧缩伴随经济增长 177
6—2 文献评析：对中国通货紧缩的解释 179
6．2 Literature survey:explanation of Chinese deflation 179
6．3 One solution:structural deviation and structural deflation 182
6—3 谜底揭示：结构性偏差与结构性通缩 182
6．4 Discussion:defects on national account system and aggravation of structural deviation 194
6—4 进一步的讨论：国民经济核算缺陷与结构偏差加剧 194
6．5 Remarks on theory and policy 207
6—5 理论思考和政策结论 207
Chapter VII More effective financial policy 216
7．探寻更有效的财政政策 216
7．1 Position of fiscal policy in public finance functions 218
7—1 财政政策在财政功能中的位置 218
7．2 North s Paradox:the difference between fiscal targets and social targets 220
7—2 诺斯悖论：财政目标与社会目标的分歧 220
7．3 Fiscal expansionary policy and investment multiplier 223
7—3扩张性财政政策与投资乘数 223
7．4 Tax，expected profit and fiscal policy 229
7—4 税率、预期利润与财政政策 229
7．5 Loss of unjust tax burden s efficiency and macroscopic result 237
7—5 税负不公平的效率损失与宏观结果 237
7．6 Debt policy and growth of financial market 245
7—6 国债政策和金融市场发育 245
7．7 Summary 250
7—7 小结 250
Chapter VIII Policy transmissions and financial structure improvement 253
8．疏通传导渠道 改善金融结构 253
8．1 Introduction 254
8—1 引言 254
8．2 Monetary policy s transmission:channel of currency and credit 256
8—2 货币政策传导机制：货币渠道与信贷渠道 256
8．3 Money illusion，sidetrack of credit and obstruction of transmission 269
8—3 流动性幻觉、信贷旁路与传导阻滞 269
8．4 government implicit guarantee and soft budget of enterprise 280
8—4 政府的隐含担保和企业的软约束 280
8．5 concluding 289
8—5 结语 289