Ⅰ．Economic Fluctuation and Macroeconomic Management in the Process of Decentralization 1
1.The Fundamental Characteristic of China s Economy Under the Decentralized System 2
2.The Economic Fluctuation During the Process of Decentralization 6
2.1 The Economic Fluctuations During the Early Years of Decentralization(1978～1982) 6
2.2 The Economic Fluctuations Under the Competition of Soft Budget Constraint(1983～1986) 7
2.3 The Economic Fluctuations During the New Stage of Development of Decentralization(1987～1991) 11
3.Macroeconomic Management in the Process of Decentralization 15
3.1 Over-heat as the Principal Target of Macroeconomic Management 15
3.2 Direct Control as the Principal Method of Macroeconomic Management 16
Ⅱ.Dual System and Dual Management 23
4.The Pattern of Dual System in the Early 1990s 25
5.The Economic Fluctuation Under the Pattern of Dual System(1992～1996) 29
5.1 Over-heat from Inflated Aggregate Demand 30
5.2 Capital Flow Across Regions and Inflated Aggregate Demand 35
5.3 Expansion of Non-bank Credit 36
5.4 Further Opening to the Outside World and Foreign Exchange Shock 40
5.5 Conclusion 42
6.Dual System and Dual Management 44
6.1 Dual Transition as the Characteristic of China s Incremental Reform 44
6.2 Dual Management During Dual Transition 50
6.3 Not Imposing Uniformity in All Cases Is the Basic Logic Behind Dual Management 53
Ⅲ.The New Problem and New Countermeasure at the New Stage of China s Economic Development 57
7.The Basic Pattern of the New Stage of China s Economic Development 59
7.1 The Pattern of Economic System 59
7.2 The Pattern of Income Distribution 64
7.3 The Pattern of the Mechanism of Investment and Finance 65
8.The New Problem at the New Stage of China s Economic Development:Periodic Insufficient Demand 69
8.1 The Features of Periodic Insufficient Demand 71
8.2 The Causes of Periodic Insufficient Demand 73
9.Macroeconomic Policy at the New Stage of China s Economic Development 84
9.1 The Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Policy 85
9.2 The Operational Restrictions of Macroeconomic Policy 115
9.3 China s Macroeconomic Policy Towards the New Century 131
10.Entry into WTO and Economic Globalization Challenging China s Macroeconomic Management 167
10.1 The Shocks to China after Entry into WTO 167
10.2 The Shocks to China from Economic Globalization 175
10.3 The Challenges Facing China s Macroeconomic Management from Further Opening to the Outside World 179
Attached Chart 204
Reference 206