（第二卷） 1
Preface 1
Foreword 1
PREDICTING METHODS AND MODELS FOR DROUGHT IN NORTHWEST CHINA 1
Coupling Feature of 500hPa Height Field and Spring Precipitation in Northwest China DONG Anxiang and 1
（Volume．Ⅱ） 1
序 1
500hPa高度场与中国西北春季降水量的耦合特征 董安祥 王澄海 1
干旱预测方法与预测模型 1
前言 1
Probability Forecasts of Summer Drought in Gansu Province DONG Anxiang，ZHANG Cunjie and LI Donglian 9
甘肃省伏旱短期气候概率预测 董安祥 张存杰 李栋梁 9
A Preliminary Analysis of Physical Factors about Spring Rainfall in Eastern Northwest China DONG Anx 14
影响西北地区东部春雨的物理因素初步分析 董安祥 14
Ensemble Forecast of Spring Rainfall in Eastern Northwest China DONG Anxiang 21
西北地区东部春雨的集成预报 董安祥 21
太阳活动与西北地区降水 董安祥 祝小妮 郭慧 27
Solar Activity and Precipitation in Northwest China DONG Anxiang，ZHU Xiaoni and GUO Hui 27
Astronomical Quasi-Nineteen Annual Period and Precipitation in Northwest China DONG Anxiang，ZHU Xia 31
天文准19年周期与西北降水 董安祥 祝小妮 薛万孝 31
The Application of Reexplanation and Reanalysis Method of Dynamics and Statistics in the Drought Cli 35
动力一统计释用方法在西北地区干旱预测中的应用 张存杰 郭慧 董安祥 35
EOF Model for Drought Prediction in Northwest China ZHANG Cunjie，DONG Anxiang and GUO Hui 41
西北地区干旱预测的EOF模型 张存杰 董安祥 郭慧 41
Wavelet Analysis of Summer Drought in East of the Yellow River in Gansu Province ZHANG Cunjie，DONG 46
甘肃省河东地区伏旱的小波分析 张存杰 董安祥 白虎志 张焕儒 46
An Assessment on the Accuracy of Monthly Dynamic Extended Forecast of T63L16 Model ZHANG Cunjie and 52
对T63L16所作月延伸预报准确率的评估 张存杰 董安祥 52
Application of Multiple Regression and EOF Method in Forecasting Precipitation from September to Oct 57
用多元回归和EOF方法预报西北地区东部9～10月降水趋势 郭慧 张存杰 董安祥 57
EOF Analysis of Summer Precipitation in Northwest China and Its Relation to 500hPa Height Field WANG 62
中国西北夏季降水的EOF分析及其与500hPa高度场的关系 王宝灵 董安祥 王玲 62
The Correlation between Drought and Anomaly Variation Features of the Ground Temperature in China du 67
中国冬季地温异常变化特征及其对西北干旱的影响 赵红岩 李栋梁 郭维栋 67
地气图方法用于省级旱涝预测的实践 郭维栋 赵红岩 李栋梁 76
Provincial Dryness and Wetness Prediction by Earth-Atmosphere Chart GUO Weidong，ZHAO Hongyan andLI 76
ARMA Model for Precipitation Forecast at Lanzhou Station during May to September YU Yaxun and ZHU Bi 81
ARMA模型在兰州5～9月降水预报中的初步应用 俞亚勋 朱炳瑗 81
Application of an Improved Canonical Correlation Analysis Method to Forecast midsummer Drought in Ti 85
改进CCA方法在青藏高原东北侧伏旱预测中的应用 俞亚勋 吴洪宝 王宝灵 85
The Spatial and Temporal Features for drought Variation during Late Spring and Early Summer in the E 93
甘肃河东春末夏初干旱的时空特征和预测研究 王蕾 李栋梁 巴特尔 刘淑梅 高弟乐 93
A Linear Stable Forecasting Model of Time Series for Monthly Seasonal and Yearly Precipitation Forec 99
一个降水预报的时间序列线性平稳预测模型 王蕾 巴特尔 李栋梁 费晓玲 99
Application of BP Artificial Neural Network Principle to Autumn Drought Prediction in Pingliang YAN 103
BP人工神经元网络在平凉地区秋旱预报中的应用 杨晓华 王若升 马鹏里 103
The Integrated Operational System of Drought Monitor Prediction and Service in Northwest China ZHU B 107
中国西北地区干旱监测预测服务综合业务系统 朱炳瑗 张存杰 王遂缠 林纾 吉惠敏 107
西北干旱气候预测业务系统研制与应用 107
DEVELPPING AND APPLYING OF THE OPERATIONALPREDICTING SYSTEMFOR DROUGHT CLIMATE IN NORTHWEST CHINA 107
Research on Drought and Flood Indices in the Northwest China ZHANG Cunjie，WANG Baoling，LIU Dexiang 115
西北地区旱涝指标的研究 张存杰 王宝灵 刘德祥 蔡忠兰 115
The Preliminary Study on Arid Index and Giving Severe Drought／Flood Year in Northwest China WANG Ba 123
西北地区干旱指标的初步研究及典型旱涝年的确定 王宝灵 张存杰 刘德祥 123
Initial Study of Service Drought Index in Gansu LIU Dexiang，WANG Baoling，CAI Zhong lan and QU Wen 127
甘肃省干旱服务指标的初步研究 刘德祥 王宝灵 蔡忠兰 瞿汶 127
The Type and Forecast for summer Rainfall in Northwest China ZU Bingyuan，LIN Shu and YU Junying 132
中国西北夏季降水类型及其预测 朱炳瑗 林纾 余均英 132
Analysis and Forecast for drought Feature during Late Spring and Early Summer over Northwest China L 139
中国西北春末夏初干旱特征分析及其预测 林纾 谢金南 朱炳瑗 139
Preliminary Analysis of September and October Drought in Southeast of Gansu Province LIN Shu and ZHA 145
甘肃省陇东南9～10月干旱的初步分析 林纾 章克俭 145
Summary of Flood and Drought’s Forecast Trend Experience in Summer Northwest China in 1999 ZHU Bing 149
1999年西北汛期旱涝趋势预报总结 朱炳瑗 李栋梁 林纾 149
甘肃省夏季（6～8月）气候预测评估 俞小妹 吉惠敏 朱炳瑗 154
Climatic Prognosticating and Assessing during June to August in Gansu Province YU Xiaomei，JI Huimin 154
A Sutdy on the Feature and Cause of Runoff in the Upper Reaches of Yellow River LI Dongliang，ZHANG 159
河流流量特征与预测方法 159
FEATURES AND PREDICTING METHODS OF FLOW FLUXES OF RIVERS IN NORTHWEST CHINA 159
黄河上游径流量演变特征及成因研究 李栋梁 张佳丽 金建瑞 章克俭 159
The Variation Features of the Runoff in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River for 260 Years FENG Jia 166
黄河上游263年流量的长期演变特征 冯建英 柯晓新 166
The Long-Range Characteristcs of the Flow of Inland River in Hexi Corridor Regions of Gansu FENG Jia 171
甘肃省河西内陆河流量长期变化特征 冯建英 李栋梁 171
Analysis on the Characteristics and Forecasting of the Flow of Inland River in Hexi Regions of Gansu 177
河西内陆河春季流量变化特征的分析和预测 冯建英 177
Prelimilary Research on Runoff Drought Index in the Hexi Area of Gansu Province WANG Jinsong and FEN 182
甘肃省河西地区径流量干旱指数初探 王劲松 冯建英 182
The Relationship between Upper Temperature and Glacial Thaw of Qilian Mountain CHENG Ying，LI Dongli 188
高空气温变化与祁连山冰川消融的关系 程瑛 李栋梁 胡文超 沈福 188
The Application of Kalman Filtering in Predication of the Flow CHEN Lei，LIU Kaifu and QIAN Li 194
卡尔曼滤波在流量预测中的应用 陈雷 刘开福 钱莉 194
Effects of Gansu Arid Climate Change on Developing of West China XIE Jinnan，LI Dongliang，DONG Anxi 197
甘肃省干旱气候变化及其对西部大开发的影响 谢金南 李栋梁 董安祥 尹东 朱炳瑗 197
干旱气候对国民经济影响评估和对策研究 197
NORTHWEST CHINA AND COUNTERMEASURES 197
甘肃省近40年降水量年内分配变化及其对农业生产的影响分析 赵红岩 王宝灵 207
An Analysis of Seasonal Distribution of Precipitation Variation and Effect on Agriculture Production 207
A Study on Rainwater Collection and Regulation and Yield-Increase Efficiency of Wheat Planted on Rid 211
旱作小麦—玉米垅种沟盖地膜带田集水调水与增产效应研究 邓振镛 仇化民 211
Applied Exploration of the Harvesting-Water Technology in the Hedong of Gansu Province KE Xiaoxin，Y 217
甘肃河东集水技术的应用探讨 柯晓新 杨兴国 张旭东 217
Rainwater Harvesting for Agriculture in Rainfed Area of Gansu YANG Xingguo，ZHANG Xudong，KE Xiaoxin 224
甘肃雨养农业区雨水集蓄应用研究 杨兴国 张旭东 柯晓新 杨启国 224
Study of Soil Water Resources in Rainfed Agriculture Region of Gansu Province YANG Xingguo，KE xiaox 231
甘肃河东雨养农业区土壤水分变化规律的研究 杨兴国 柯晓新 张旭东 万信 231
The Laws of Wheat’s Water Requirements and Their Distribution Behavior in Hedong Region of Gansu Pr 238
甘肃河东小麦需水规律及其分布特征 张旭东 柯晓新 杨兴国 万信 238
Study on Laws of Evapotranspiration of Spring Wheat and Relationship with Yield in Middle Region of 244
甘肃中部旱作春小麦耗水规律及与产量关系的研究 张旭东 柯晓新 杨兴国 杨启国 244
Research on the Agricultural Moisture Condition in Gansu Loess Plateau DONG Anxiang，CHEN Changyu an 248
甘肃黄土高原农业水分条件研究 董安祥 陈昌毓 郝惠玲 248
Estimation of Evapotranspiration of Trees and Adaptive Faculty of Water in Arid and Subarid Regions 255
甘肃干旱半干旱地区林木蒸散量估算和水分适生度研究 陈昌毓 董安祥 255
A Study of the Amount and Law of Water Consumed by Meadow Vegetation during the Growth Stage in Subf 264
高原亚寒带湿润草甸区植被生育期耗水量与耗水规律研究 姚玉壁 264
The Climatic Features of Drought and Excessive Rain in the History of Gansu and Their Relation with 268
甘肃省历史旱涝特征及与产量的关系研究 李春虎 韩永翔 姚辉 268
Study on the Characteristic of Interannual Change of Grain Yield in Gansu Province YIN Dong and YANG 275
甘肃省粮食产量年际波动特征分析 尹东 杨家宝 275
The Discriminate Method of the Climatic Type of the Year’s Harvest of Grain Yield in Gansu Province 281
甘肃省粮食产量气候年景评判方法 尹东 费晓玲 281
Factor Analysis on the Variation Features of Climatic Yield of Summer Grain in Gansu Province YIN Do 285
甘肃省夏粮气候产量变化特征的因子分析 尹东 柯晓新 费晓玲 285
Factor Analysis on the Variation Features of Climatic Yield of Autumn Grain in Gansu Province YIN Do 290
甘肃省秋粮气候产量变化特征的因子分析 尹东 柯晓新 费晓玲 290
A Study on the Relationship between Climatic Characteristics of Corn Yield of Gansu and OLR of China 295
甘肃省玉米产量的气候特征及其与中国大陆OLR的关系研究 韩永翔 李栋梁 郭慧 295
The Use of Utility Coefficient in a Study for the Effects of Climatic Variation on Crop Output DENG 300
效益系数在研究气候变化对作物产量影响中的应用 邓国伦 崔振乾 吴英成 300
The Climatical Analysis of Reasonable Planting Proportion for Grain and Oil Crop in Middle Areas of 304
甘肃中部地方粮油作物合理种植比例的气候分析 万信 尹东 韩永翔 王玉洁 304