Abstract 1
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Statement and Significance of the Problem 1
1.2 Literature Review 3
1.2.1 Air Pollution Studies 3
1.2.2 Air pollution Forecasting 3
1.2.3 Volatility Studies 3
1.2.4 Regional Nature of the Air Pollution 4
1.2.5 Inter Region Contagion of Air Pollution 4
1.2.6 Seasonality of AirPollution 4
1.2.7 Copula Model 5
1.3 Principles,Models,Rationale or Hypothesis 6
1.4 Objectives of Study 6
1.5 Scope of Study 7
1.6 Definitions 8
1.6.1 Air Pollution Index 8
1.6.2 Region 8
1.6.3 Season 9
1.7 Overview 10
Chapter 2 Methodology 12
2.1 Univariate Model 12
2.1.1 GARCH Model 12
2.1.2 GJR-GARCH 13
2.1.3 EGARCH 14
2.1.4 GARCH in Mean 14
2.1.5 Models with Dummy 14
2.2 Multi-variate Model 14
2.3 Copula Model 16
Chapter 3 Air Pollution Uncertainty Modelling Based on Urban API:A Case of Beijing,China 18
3.1 Introduction 18
3.2 Model 20
3.3 Data Description 22
3.4 Empirical Study 23
3.5 Conclusion 25
Chapter 4 Seasonality,Dynamic Correlations between Urban Air Pollution Indices and Corresponding Regional,National Levels in China 30
4.1 Introduction 30
4.2 Model 34
4.3 Data Description 36
4.4 Sources 36
4.5 Regional and National APIs Approximation 36
4.6 Descriptive Statistics 37
4.7 Results 38
4.8 Conclusions 40
Chapter 5 Modeling Dependence Dynamics of Air Pollution:Time Series Analysis Using a Copula Based GARCH Type Model 129
5.1 Introduction 129
5.2 Model 131
5.2.1 DCC-GARCH Model 131
5.2.2 Copula Concept 132
5.2.3 Copula Models 134
5.3 Data Description 135
5.4 Results 136
5.5 Conclusions 137
Chapter 6 Conclusion 145
6.1 Summary of the Study 145
6.2 Suggestions for Further Study 147
References 148