Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background 1
1.2 Research Purpose 2
1.3 Structure of This Research 2
References 5
Chapter 2 Literature Review 6
2.1 Related Research 6
2.2 The Positioning of This Research 11
References 15
Chapter 3 Population Analysis 19
3.1 Population Predictions 19
3.2 Population Changes 21
3.3 Population Growth Rate 22
3.4 The Cause of Population Increasing 23
3.5 Conclusions 23
References 24
Chapter 4 A Continental Method for Estimating Wheat Production，Supply， Trade and Maritime Transportation 25
4.1 Introduction 25
4.2 Research Method 30
4.3 Factor Analysis of Population in Relation to Wheat Production and Supply 32
4.4 Surplus and Shortage in Every Region 42
4.5 Future of Maritime Transportation 47
4.6 Conclusions 59
References 60
Chapter 5 Trade Flow Analysis of Wheat 61
5.1 Introduction 61
5.2 International Trade of Wheat 62
5.3 Share Analysis of the International Wheat Export Market 67
5.4 Trade Flow Data 69
5.5 Panel Data Analyses of Asian Wheat’s Import 71
5.6 Conclusions 74
References 74
Chapter 6 Maritime Transportation and Logistics Systems of Asia 76
6.1 Asian Transportation Tons 76
6.2 Maritime Transportation in Shortage Areas （Ton Miles） 82
6.3 Trade Value 85
6.4 Forecasting the Required Number of Wheat Bulk Carriers 86
6.5 Emissions of CO2 94
6.6 Conclusions 96
References 96
Chapter 7 Maritime Transportation and Logistics Systems of Africa 97
7.1 Analysis of Maritime Transportation in Africa （Tons） 97
7.2 Maritime Transportation in Africa （Ton-miles） 101
7.3 Trade value 103
7.4 Forecasting the Required Number of Wheat Bulk Carriers 105
7.5 Emissions of CO2 （Africa） 110
7.6 Conclusions 111
References 112
Chapter 8 Comparative Research on the Trade and Bulk Carriers of Wheat and Rice for Maritime Transportation to Africa 113
8.1 Introduction 113
8.2 Comparative Research on Trade 114
8.3 Comparison of Bulk Carriers for Maritime Transportation 122
8.4 Conclusions 126
References 126
Chapter 9 Conclusions and Future Investigation 128
9.1 Cond u sions 128
9.2 Subject of Future Investigation 132
Appendix A 134
O-D Cross Section Data Program （Using EXCEL Visual Basic for Applications） 134
Appendix B 139
Distance Table between Imports and Exports Port （Asia） 139
Appendix C 140
Distance Table Between Imports and Exports Port （Africa） 140
Appendix D The new Progress in Relation to This Research Published in Chinese Journal 141
Ⅰ The Impacts of Wheat Logistics by Climate Change and China’s Strategy（气候变化对小麦流通的影响及中国的应对策略） 141
Ⅱ The Econometrics Analysis of Panel Data about Wheat Trade in A-sia（亚洲小麦贸易的面板数据计量经济分析） 149
Ⅲ Transportation Logistics Mode Choice of Shandong’s Agricultural Products（山东农产品外运物流模式选择研究） 157
Acknowledgement 166
Index 168