1 Introduction 1
1.1 Overview 1
1.2 Objectives ofthe Book 2
1.3 Possible Applications 2
1.4 Historical Perspective 3
1.5 Uncertainties in the Building Process 5
2 Random Variables 7
2.1 Basic Definitions 7
2.2 Properties of Probability Functions（CDF，PDF，and PMF） 13
2.3 Parameters of a Random Variable 13
2.4 Common Random Variables 15
2.5 Probability Paper 28
2.6 Interpretation of Test Data Using Statistics 37
2.7 Conditional Probability 42
2.8 Random Vectors 43
2.9 Correlation 46
2.10 Bayesian Updating 51
Problems 55
3 Functions of Random Variables 59
3.1 Linear Functions of Random Variables 59
3.2 Linear Functions of Normal Variables 61
3.3 Product of Lognormal Random Variables 63
3.4 Nonlinear Function of Random Variables 65
3.5 Central Limit Theorem 67
Problems 68
4 Simulation Techniques 71
4.1 Monte Carlo Methods 71
4.2 Latin Hypercube Sampling 84
4.3 Rosenblueth’s 2K＋1 Point Estimate Method 87
Problems 89
5 Structural Safety Analysis 91
5.1 Limit States 91
5.2 Fundamental Case 96
5.3 Reliability Index 98
5.4 Rackwitz-Fiessler Procedure 118
5.5 Reliability Analysis Using Simulation 135
Problems 138
6 Structural Load Models 143
6.1 Types of Load 143
6.2 General Load Models 144
6.3 Dead Load 146
6.4 Live Load in Buildings 146
6.5 Live Load for Bridges 151
6.6 Environmental Loads 157
6.7 Load Combinations 166
Problems 175
7 Models of Resistance 177
7.1 Parameters of Resistance 177
7.2 Steel Components 179
7.3 Aluminum Structures 187
7.4 Reinforced and Prestressed Concrete Components 188
7.5 Wood Components 204
8 Design Codes 209
8.1 Overview 209
8.2 Role of a Code in the Building Process 210
8.3 Code Levels 213
8.4 Code Development Procedure 213
8.5 Calibration of Partial Safety Factors for a Level I Code 221
8.6 Development of a Bridge Design Code 233
8.7 Conclusions 243
Problems 243
9 System Reliability 245
9.1 Elements and Systems 245
9.2 Series and Parallel Systems 247
9.3 Reliability Bounds for Structural Systems 257
9.4 Systems with Equally Correlated Elements 261
9.5 Systems with Unequally Correlated Elements 270
9.6 Summary 275
Problems 275
10 Uncertainties in the Building Process 279
10.1 Overview 279
10.2 Classification of Errors 283
10.3 Error Surveys 286
10.4 Approach to Errors 288
10.5 Sensitivity Analysis 291
10.6 Other Approaches 300
10.7 Conclusions 300
Bibliography 303
Appendix A Acronyms 311
Appendix B Values of the CDFФ（z）for the Standard Normal Probability Distribution 313
Appendix C Values of the Gamma Function Γ（k）for 1≤k≤2 317
教师反馈表 319