Part I The 1984 Presidential Election Contest 1
I The Nomination Struggle 13
The Republicans 13
The Democrats 14
The Rules 17
Surviving 21
The Mondale-Hart Race 24
Jesse Jackson's Candidacy 39
Choosing the Running Mate 42
The Lessons of the 1984 Nomination Campaign 43
2 The General Election Campaign 49
Candidates' Perceptions and Strategy Choices 50
From the Conventions to the First Debate 52
The Presidential Debates: The Rise and Demise of Walter Mondale 57
The End Game: How Big a Victory? 60
Did the Campaign Matter? 61
3 The Election Results 67
The Pattern of Results 70
State-by-State Results 75
Conclusion 85
Part II Voting Behavior in the 1984 Presidentiial Election 91
4 Who Voted 99
Turnout between 1824 and 1916 99
Turnout between 1920 and 1984 102
Turnout among Social Groups 107
Why Has Turnout Declined? 114
Does Low Turnout Matter? 119
5 Social Forces and the Vote 133
How Social Groups Voted in 1984 134
How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years 142
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down 156
6 Issues, Candidates, and Voter Choice 163
Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations 164
The Concerns of the Electorate 165
Issue Positions and Perceptions 168
Issue Voting Criteria 172
Apparent Issue Voting in 1984 176
7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice 187
What Is "Retrospective" Voting? 187
Evaluations of Governmental Performance 190
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent 193
Other Itetn,slwctive Evaluations 197
Evaluations of the Incumbent 198
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations 199
8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, Performance Evaluations, and the Vote 207
Party Identification: The Standard View 207
Party Identification: An Alternative View 208
Party htentffication in the Electorate 209
Party Identification and the Vote 214
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations 216
Conclusion 225
Part III The 1984 Congressional Election 229
9 Candidates and Outcomes 233
Election Outcomes in 1984 234
Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes 239
The 1984 Election: The Impact on Congress 248
The 1986 Congressional Election and Beyond 251
10 The Congressional Electorate 263
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote 263
Issues and the Congressional Vote 264
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote 267
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote 269
The Congressional Vote as a Referendum 270
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote 273
Incumbency and Candidate Resources Revisited 274
Conclusion 276
Part IV The 1984 Elections in Perspective 279
II The 1984 Elections and the Future of American Politics 281
Policy Consequences of the 1984 Elections 283
Toward Realignment? 286
Continued Republican Dominance 287
A Resurgent Democratic Party 292
A New Political Party 295
Future Electoral Volatility 299
Part V 1986 Election Update 307
12 The 1986 Congressional Election 311
The Pattern of Outcomes 311
Assessing Victory and Explaining the Pattern 314
Congressional Campaigns: National or Local? 319
Parties, PACs, and Money in the Congressional Races 325
The 1986 Election: The Impact on Congress 330
13 1988 and Beyond 335
Delegate Selection Changes 336
1988 Presidential Candidates 340
Waning Republican Prospects 346
Conclusion 354
Suggested Readings 359
Index 369