PART I. Sino-American Strategic Relations 1
1. INTRODUCTION 2
2. THE NATIONAL POWER OF THE PRC 12
Geography 12
Military Capabilities 13
Economy 14
Sociopsychology 18
Leadership 18
3. SINO-SOVIET RELATIONS 22
The Sino-Soviet Split 23
U.S.-Soviet Balance of Power in East Asia 40
Soviet Strategic Perceptions 43
Korea and Japan 49
Soviet Statements on U.S.-PRC Relations 53
4. CHINA'S INDEPENDENT FOREIGN POLICY 58
Normalization of Sino-Soviet Relations 63
Future Sino-Soviet Relations 75
5. PARAMETERS OF SINO-AMERICAN STRATEGIC COOPERATION 77
The Soviet Card 77
Sino-American Military Cooperation 80
PRC Rejection of Close Military Ties 85
Future Sino-American Strategic Cooperation 87
PART II. The Role of Taiwan 89
6. TAIWAN TODAY: AN OVERVIEW 91
Background 91
Economic Conditions 96
Political System 102
Recent Political Developments 105
Foreign Policy 110
The Importance of Taiwan 116
7. THE SECURITY OF TAIWAN 122
PRC Military Threat 123
PRC Intentions 130
Taiwan's Reunification Policy 148
8. THE TAIWAN ISSUE 153
The Shanghai Communiqué 153
Normalization of Sino-American Relations 156
The Taiwan Relations Act 160
The Mid-1980 Turning Point 164
China Becomes Inflexible 173
9. PERIOD OF CONTENTION: 1981-1982 178
The FX Decision 182
The Arms Sales Controversy 191
10. THE AUGUST 17, 1982 JOINT COMMUNIQUE 202
Provisions 205
U.S. Interpretations 208
PRC Interpretations 213
Relations in the Post-Communiqué Period 215
11. EPILOGUE 219
A More Realistic China Policy 219
Relations Sour Once Again 223
Sale of High Technology to the PRC 228
Exchange Visits of Premier Zhao Ziyang and President Reagan 230
PART III. Conclusion 237
12. SUMMARY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 238
Limits of Sino-American Strategic Cooperation 238
The Taiwan Question 242
Taiwan as a Variable in Sino-American Strategic Relations 246
Policy Implications 248
APPENDIXES 251
SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 278