Teh Poverty Of HistoricismPDF电子书下载

INTRODUCTION 1

Ⅰ THE ANTI-NATURALISTIC DOCTRINES OF HISTORICISM 5

1 Generalization 6

2 Experiment 8

3 Novelty 9

4 Complexity 12

5 Inexactitude of Prediction 12

6 Objectivity and Valuation 14

7 Holism 17

8 Intuitive Understanding 19

9 Quantitative Methods 24

10 Essentialism versus Nominalism 26

Ⅱ THE PRO-NATURALISTIC DOCTRINES OF HISTORICISM 35

11 Comparison with Astronomy．Long-Term Forecasts and Large-Scale Forecasts 36

12 The Observational Basis 38

13 Social Dynamics 39

14 Historical Laws 41

15 Historical Prophecy versus Social Engineering 43

16 The Theory of Historical Development 45

17 Interpreting versus Planning Social Change 49

18 Conclusion of the Analysis 52

Ⅲ CRITICISM OF THE ANTINATURALISTIC DOCTRINES 55

19 Practical Aims of this Criticism 55

20 The Technological Approach to Sociology 58

21 Piecemeal versus Utopian Engineering 64

22 The Unholy Alliance with Utopianism 71

23 Criticism of Holism 76

24 The Holistic Theory of Social Experiments 83

25 The Variability of Experimental Conditions 93

26 Are Generalizations Confined to Periods？ 97

Ⅳ CRITICISM OF THE PRONATURALISTIC DOCTRINES 105

27 Is there a Law of Evolution？Lawn and Trends 105

28 The Method of Reduction．Causal Explanation．Prediction and Prophecy 120

29 The Unity of Method 130

30 Theoretical and Historical Sciences 143

31 Situational Logic in History．Historical Interpretation 147

32 The Institutional Theory of Progress 152

33 Conclusion 159

INDEX 162