经济决策定量方法PDF电子书下载

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE 1

METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING 1

1.1　Quantitative Methods:A Continuing Story of Success 1

1.2 Management Science and Operations Research 2

1.3 The Importance of Studying Quantitative Methods 2

Main words or phrases 3

CHAPTER 2 FORECASTING 5

2.1 Forecasting Using Past Data:Time-series Analysis 5

2.2 Exponential Smoothing 7

2.3 Forecasting Trend Using Regression 11

Main words or phrases 19

CHAPTER 3 INVENTORY MODELS 21

3.1 Introduction 21

3.2 The Economic Order Quantity(EOQ)Model 24

3.3 Optimal Inventory Policy with Backordering 28

3.4 Economic Production Lot-size Model 29

3.5 Single-period Inventory Decisions with Uncertain Factors 32

3.6 Multi-period Inventory Policies with Uncertain Factors 36

Main words or phrases 41

CHAPTER 4 LINEAR PROGRAMMING 43

4.1 Introduction 43

4.2 Formulation of Linear Programming Models 44

4.3 Graphical Solution of Linear Programs 45

4.4 Linear Program in Standard Form 51

4.5 Simplex Method 52

4.6 Use of Artificial Variables 59

Main words or phrases 62

CHAPTER 5 TRANSPORTATION PROBLEMS 63

5.1 A Shipment-Scheduling Case 63

5.2 Getting Started:The Northwest Corner Ruler 64

5.3 Getting Started:The Least Cost Ruler 66

5.4 Getting Started:The Vogel's Approximation Ruler 68

5.5 Solving the Problem:The Simplex Analogy 70

Main words or phrases 76

CHAPTER 6 PROJECT PLANNING WITH PERT 77

6.1 The Basic Concepts of PERT 78

6.2 An Analysis of the PERT Network 83

6.3 Planning and Control Using the PERT Network 89

6.4 Time-Cost Trade-off Evaluations with PERT 94

6.5 Probabilistic PERT Analysis with Three Time Estimates 101

Main words or phrases 103

CHAPTER 7 DECISION MAKING 106

7.1 The Certainty and Uncertainty in Decision Making 106

7.2 The Elements of Decisions 107

7.3 The Bayes Decision Rule 108

7.4 The Decision Tree Analysis 111

7.5 Decision Making Using Experimental Information 117

7.6 Decision Making Using Normal Distribution 124

7.7 Decision Making with Utility 139

Main words or phrases 160

CHAPTER 8 GAMES-INTERACTIVE DECISIONS 164

8.1 Game Theory 164

8.2 Major Game Types and Their Solutions 169

8.3 Some Properties of Zero-Sum Games 175

8.4 Mixed Strategies in Games with no Equilibrium Act Pair 178

8.5 Mixed Strategies in Larger Games 186

8.6 Additional Remarks 189

Main words or phrases 190

CHAPTER 9 DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING 193

9.1 The Stagecoach Problem 194

9.2 Types of Dynamic Programs 198

9.3 The Knapsack Problem 200

9.4 Maximizing System Reliability 206

9.5 Optimizing Multi-period Inventories and Production 208

9.6 Probabilistic Dynamic Programming 211

Main words or phrases 212

CHAPTER 10 RANDOM PROCESSES 213

10.1 Discrete Time Processes 213

10.2 Continuous Time Processes 226

Main words or phrases 243

参考文献 246

教学大纲 247