统计思想 英文版PDF电子书下载

CHAPTER 1 Statistics Success Stories and Cautionary Tales 1

1.1 What Is Statistics？ 1

1.2 Seven Statistical Stories with Morals 2

◆Case study 1.1：Who Are Those Speedy Drivers？ 2

◆Case Study 1.2：Disaster in the Skies？ 3

◆Case Study 1.3：DidAnyoneAsk Whom You've Been Dating？ 3

contents出版说明 4

◆Case Study 1.4：Who Are Those Angry Women？ 4

序 5

◆Case Study 1.5：Does Prayer Lower Blood Pressure？ 5

◆Case Study 1.6：Does Aspirin Reduce Heart Attack Rates？ 5

◆Case Study 1.7：Does the Internet Increase Loneliness and Depression？ 6

1.3 The Common Elements in the Seven Stories 7

KEYTERMS 8

EXERCISES 9

REFERENCES 10

CHAPTER 2 Tuming Data into Information 12

2.1 Raw Data 13

2.2 Types of Data 14

2.3 Summarizing One or Two Categorical Variables 18

2.4 Finding Information in Quantitative Data 23

2.5 Pictures for Quantitative Data 28

2.6 Numerical Summaries of Quantitative Variables 32

2.7 Bell-Shaped Distributions of Numbers 40

EXERCISES 46

KEY TERMS 46

REFERENCES 51

CHAPTER 3 Gathering Useful Data 52

3.1 Description or Decision？Using Data Wisely 53

3.2 Speaking the Language of Research Studies 55

◆CaseStudy3.1：LeadExposureandBadTeeth 60

3.3 Designing a Good Experiment 61

◆Case Study 3.2：Kids and Weight Lifting 61

◆Case Study 3.3：Quitting Smoking with Nicotine Patches 66

3.4 Designing a Good Observational Study 67

◆Case Study 3.4：Baldness and Heart Attacks 67

3.5 Difficulties and Disasters in Experiments and Observational Studies 69

EXERCISES 74

KEY TERMS 74

REFERENCES 78

CHAPTER 4 Sampling：Surveys and How To Ask Questions 80

4.1 The Beauty of Sampling 81

4.2 Sampling Methods 84

4.3 Difficulties and Disasters in Sampling 93

◆Case Study 4.1：The Infamous Literary Digest Poll of 1936 97

4.4 How to Ask Survey Questions 98

◆Case Study 4.2：No Opinion of Your Own？Let Politics Decide 102

KEY TERMS 102

EXERCISES 103

REFERENCES 107

CHAPTER 5 Relationships Between Quantitative Variables 108

5.1 Looking for Patterns with Scatterplots 110

5.2 Describing Linear Patterns with a Regression Line 115

5.3 Measuring Strength and Direction with Correlation 122

5.4 Why Answers May Not Make Sense 128

5.5 Correlation Does Not Prove Causation 133

◆Case Study 5.1：AWeightyIssue 135

KEY TERMS 137

EXERCISES 137

REFERENCES 143

CHAPTER 6 Relationships Between Categorical Variables 144

6.1 Displaying Relationships Between Categorical Variables 145

6.2 Risk，Relative Risk，Odds Ratio，and Increased Risk 148

6.3 Misleading Statistics about Risk 151

6.4 The Effect of a Third Variable and Simpson's Paradox 154

6.5 Assessing the Statistical Significance of a 2×2 Table 157

◆Case Study 6.1：Drinking，Driving，and the Supreme Court 163

KEY TERMS 165

EXERCISES 165

REFERENCES 171

CHAPTER 7 Probability 172

7.1 Random Circumstances 173

◆Case Study 7.1：A Hypothetical Story—Alicia Has aBadDay 174

7.2 Interpretations of Probability 176

7.3 Probability Definitions and Relationships 181

7.4 Basic Rules for Finding Probabilities 186

7.5 Strategies for Finding Complicated Probabilities 192

7.6 Using Simulation to Estimate Probabilities 199

7.7 Coincidences and Intuitive Judgments about Probability 202

KEY TERMS 209

EXERCISES 209

REFERENCES 214

CHAPTER 8 Random Variables 216

8.1 What is a Random Variable？ 217

8.2 Discrete Random Variables 219

8.3 Expectations for Random Variables 223

8.4 Binomial Random Variables 228

8.5 Continuous Random Variables 233

8.6 Normal Random Variables 236

8.7 Approximating Binomial Distribution Probabilities 243

8.8 Sums，Differences，and Combinations of Random Variables 245

◆Case Study 8.1：Does Caffeine Enhance the Taste of Cola？ 251

KEY TERMS 252

EXERCISES 252

REFERENCES 257

CHAPTER 9 Means and Proportions as Random Variables 258

9.1 Understanding Dissimilarity among Samples 259

9.2 Sampling Distributions for Sample Proportions 261

9.3 What to Expect of Sample Means 265

9.4 What to Expect in Other Situations：Central Limit Theorem 270

9.5 Sampling Distribution for Any Statistic 272

9.6 Standardized Statistics 274

9.7 Student's t-Distribution：Replacing σwith s 276

9.8 Statistical Inference 278

◆Case Study 9.1：Do Americans Really Vote When They Say They Do？ 279

KEY TERMS 279

EXERCISES 280

REFERENCES 285

CHAPTER 10 Estimating Proportions with Confidence 286

10.1 The Language and Notation of Estimation 288

10.2 Margin of Error 289

10.3 Confidence Intervals 290

10.4 Calculating a Margin of Error for 95％Confidence 292

10.5 General Theory of Confidence Intervals for a Proportion 296

10.6 Choosing a Sample Size for a Survey 301

10.7 Using Confidence Intervals to Guide Decisions 302

◆Case Study 10.1：Extrasensory Perception Works with Movies 304

◆Case Study 10.2：Nicotine Patches versus Zyban？ 305

◆CaseStudy10.3：WhataGreatPersonality 306

KEY TERMS 306

EXERCISES 307

REFERENCES 311

CHAPTER 11 Testing Hypotheses about Proportions 312

11.1 Formulating Hypothesis Statements 314

11.2 The Logic of Hypothesis Testing：What if the Null Is True？ 316

11.3 Reaching a Conclusion about the Two Hypotheses 318

11.4 Testing Hypotheses about a Proportion 320

11.5 The Role of Sample Size in Statistical Significance 331

11.6 RealImportance versus Statistical Significance 334

◆Case Study 11.1：The Internet and Loneliness：Case Study 1.7 Revisited 335

11.7 What Can Go Wrong：The Two Types of Errors 335

◆Case Study 11.2：An Interpretation of a p-Value Not Fit to Print 339

KEY TERMS 340

EXERCISES 340

REFERENCES 345

CHAPTER 12 More about Confidence Intervals 346

12.1 Examples of Different Estimation Situations 347

12.2 Standard Errors 350

12.3 Approximate 95％Confidence Intervals 354

12.4 General Confidence Intervals for One Mean or Paired Data 357

12.5 General Confidence Intervals for the Difference Between Two Means（Independent Samples） 363

12.6 The Difference Between Two Proportions（Independent Samples） 370

12.7 Understanding Any Confidence Interval 373

◆Case Study 12.1：Confidence Interval for Relative Risk：Case Study 3.4 Revisited 373

◆Case Study 12.2：Premenstrual Syndrome？Try Calcium 374

Summary of Formulas for Confidence Intervals 375

KEY TERMS 376

EXERCISES 376

REFERENCES 383

CHAPTER 13 More about Significance Tests 384

13.1 The General Ideas of Significance Testing 386

13.2 Testing Hypotheses about One Mean or Paired Data 387

13.3 Testing the Difference Between Two Means（Independent Samples） 396

13.4 Testing the Difference Between Two Population Proportions 404

13.5 The Relationship Between Significance Tests and Confidence Intervals 409

13.6 The Two Types of Errors and Their Probabilities 411

13.7 Evaluating Significance in Research Reports 415

Summary of Chapter 13 Procedures 416

KEYTERMS 416

EXERCISES 416

REFERENCES 423

CHAPTER 14 More about Regression 424

14.1 Sample and Population Regression Models 426

14.2 Estimating the Standard Deviation for Regression 431

14.3 Inference about the Linear Regression Relationship 435

REFERENCES 436

14.4 Predicting the Valuey for an Individual 439

14.5 Estimating the Meany at a Specified x 441

14.6 Checking Conditions for Using Regression Models for Inference 443

CaseStudy 14.1：AContested Election 447

KEY TERMS 449

EXERCISES 450

REFERENCES 455

CHAPTER 15 More about Categorical Variables 456

15.1 The Chi-square Test for Two-Way Tables 457

15.2 Analyzing 2×2 Tables 468

15.3 Testing Hypotheses about One Categorical Variable：Goodness of Fit 473

◆CaseStudy15.1：Do You Mind if I Eat the Blue Ones？ 477

KEYTERMS 479

EXERCISES 479

CHAPTER 16 Analysis of Variance 488

16.1 Comparing Means with an ANOVA F-Test 489

16.2 Details of One-Way Analysis of Variance 497

16.3 Other Methods for Comparing Populations 503

16.4 Two-Way Analysis of Variance 507

KEY TERMS 511

EXERCISES 511

REFERENCES 516

CHAPTER 17 Turning Information into Wisdom 518

17.1 Beyond the Data 519

17.2 Transforming Uncertainty into Wisdom 522

17.3 Making Personal Decisions 522

17.4 Control of Societal Risks 525

17.5 Understanding Our World 528

17.6 Getting to Know You 530

17.7 Words to the Wise 532

EXERCISES 533

REFERENCES 535

Appendix of Tables 537

Answers to Selected Exercises 543

Index 553