WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2004PDF电子书下载
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- 出 版 社：
- 出版年份：2222
- ISBN：9264108173
- 页数：570 页
1.The Context 39
The Methodological Approach 40
The Reference Scenario 41
Government Policies and Measures 41
Macroeconomic Factors 41
Population 43
Energy Prices 46
Technological Developments 51
The World Alternative Policy Scenario 52
Main Uncertainties 53
2.Global Energy Trends 57
Energy Demand 58
Primary Fuel Mix 58
Regional Trends 64
Sectoral Trends 66
Energy Production and Trade 69
Resource Availability and Production Prospects 69
Outlook for International Trade 71
Investment Outlook 72
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 74
Overview 74
Regional Emission Trends 76
Sectoral Emission Trends 77
World Alternative Policy Scenario 78
3.Oil Market Outlook 81
Oil Demand 82
Oil Reserves and Resources 87
Classifying and Measuring Resources 87
Estimates of Proven Reserves 90
Turning Resources into Reserves 93
Oil Production 105
Summary of Projections 105
Conventional Oil Production Prospects by Region 106
Non-Conventional Oil Production Prospects 114
Inter-Regional Oil Trade 115
Investment Outlook 119
Implications of High Oil Prices 122
Background and Assumptions 122
Results 123
4.Natural Gas Market Outlook 129
Gas Demand 130
Gas Supply 135
Proven Reserves and Potential Resources 135
Production Prospects 136
Gas Trade 140
Investment Outlook 144
Price Developments 145
North America 146
Europe 147
Asia-Pacific 147
Regional Trends 148
North America 148
European Union 153
OECD Asia 156
OECD Oceania 159
Transition Economies 159
Developing Asia 161
Middle East 163
Africa 165
Latin America 166
5.Coal Market Outlook 169
Coal Demand 170
Sectoral Demand 171
Impact of Environmental Policy and Technology 172
Coal Reserves and Production 174
Proven Reserves 174
Production Prospects 175
Hard Coal Trade 176
Price Developments 179
Investment Outlook 181
Regional Trends 182
OECD North America 182
OECD Europe 182
OECD Pacific 184
China 185
India 187
Africa 188
Indonesia 188
6 Electricity Market Outlook 191
Electricity Demand 192
Drivers of Electricity Demand 192
Sectoral Growth 193
Power Generation 193
Choice of New Plant 194
The Electricity-Generation Mix 196
Technology Outlook 204
Impact on Fuel Markets 206
Capacity Requirements and Investment Outlook 207
CO2 Emissions 211
Electricity Markets and the Status of Reforms 212
Regional Trends 216
United States and Canada 216
European Union 218
OECD Pacific 220
China 220
India 222
Brazil 223
7 Renewable Energy Outlook 225
Renewable Energy Demand 226
Renewables in Power Generation 228
Cost Developments 232
Outlook by Source 234
Capacity and Investment Outlook 238
Renewables in Industry and Buildings 239
Biofuels 240
8 Regional Outlooks 243
OECD Regions and the EU 244
Overview 244
OECD North America 245
European Union 249
OECD Asia 254
OECD Oceania 257
Developing Countries 259
Developing Asia 261
China 263
India 269
Indonesia 271
Latin America 273
Brazil 274
Middle East 278
Africa 279
Transition Economies 281
9 Russia – an In-Depth Study 283
Energy Market Overview 284
Macroeconomic Context 286
Energy Policy Developments 291
Energy Demand Outlook 294
Overview 294
Sectoral Trends 297
Oil Supply Outlook 300
Resources 301
Crude Oil Production 303
Refining Capacity and Production 305
Export Prospects 305
Industry Structure and the Role of the State 307
Gas Supply Outlook 308
Resources and Production Trends 308
Export Prospects 313
Market Reforms 314
Coal Supply Outlook 315
Power and Heat Sector Outlook 317
Capacity Needs and Fuel Mix 317
Impact of Electricity Market Reforms 320
Implications of the Projections 323
Russia’s Role in the Global Energy Market 323
Energy Investment Needs and Financing 325
Environmental Impact 326
10.Energy and Development 329
The Role of Energy in Development 330
Energy and Economic Growth 33
Energy and Human Development 334
The IEA Energy Development Index 342
Prospects for Energy Development 346
EDI Projections to 2030 346
Energy Development and the Millennium Goals 350
Policy Implications 353
Appendix to Chapter 10: Electrification Tables 357
11 World Alternative Policy Scenario 367
Background and Approach 368
Why an Alternative Scenario? 368
Methodology 369
Key results 372
Energy Demand 372
Implications for Energy Supply 374
Carbon-Dioxide Emissions 377
Investment Outlook 380
Results by Region 384
OECD Regions and the EU 385
Non-OECD Countries 389
Results by Sector 396
Power Generation 396
Transport 401
Industry 405
Residential and Services Sectors 408
Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario 411
Appendix to Chapter 11:Tables for World Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 415
Annex A Tables for Reference Scenario Projections 429
Annex B Energy Projections: Assessment and Comparison 519
Annex C World Energy Model 2004 531
Annex D The Precarious State of Energy Statistics 549
Annex E Definitions, Abbreviations and Acronyms 553
Annex F References 563