ENERGY RESOURCES IN AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE COALPDF电子书下载

PART I. INTRODUCTION OF ESTIMATION OF RESERVES AND RESOURCES 1

Introduction 1

Chapter 1. User Costs and Optimal Depletion of Reserves 3

The Theory of Depletion of Limited Resources 3

Implications of the Theory of Exhaustion 7

Reformulation of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources 7

The Underlying Concept of Reserves 10

The Rate of Interest and the Optimal Depletion Rate 10

Chapter 2. Reserves versus Resources 13

The Resource Base 13

Reserves 15

Chapter 3. Economic Issues for the Mining Industry 17

Price and Marginal Cost 17

Supply Curves 18

Exploration Models 22

Summary 25

PART II. OIL AND GAS: ESTIMATION OF DISCOVERED RESERVES 27

Introduction 27

Chapter 4. Proved Reserves: the API-AGA-CPA System 29

Engineering and Economic Concept of Proved Reserves 33

Lessons of the 1971 Natural Gas "Audit" 34

Chapter 5. Canada's "Nonconventional Reserves" 37

Chapter 6. The Growth of Proved Reserves in the United States 41

Types of Wells 41

Reported "Discoveries" 45

Sources of New Reserves in Old Fields 46

New Oil or Gas: After Discovery 46

Chapter 7. The Relation of Probable Reserves to Proved Reserves 49

Probable Reserves as a Stretch Factor on Proved Reserves 53

Chapter 8. The Role of Costs and Prices in Ascertaining Proved and Probable Reserves 61

Variable Costs 61

Lack of Growth of Reserves 63

Effects of Price Controls and Per-Barrel Taxes 64

Chapter 9. Proved and Probable Reserves outside the United States and Canada 69

Review of Selected Reserve Estimates 72

Summary 81

PART III. OIL AND GAS: ESTIMATION OF UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES 83

Introduction 83

What Is a Forecast of Undiscovered Petroleum? 86

Models for Projecting Amounts of Discoverable Hydrocarbons 90

Chapter 10. Life-Cycle Models of Petroleum Production 95

Chapter 11. Geologic-Volumetric Methods 113

Chapter 12. Rate-of-Effort Models 127

Bromberg and Hartigan Model 132

Chapter 13. Subjective Probability Methods 147

Circular 725 148

Canadian Resource Appraisal 164

Chapter 14. Econometric Methods 175

Khazzoom's FPC Model of Gas Supply 180

Erickson-Spann Model 183

MacAvoy-Pindyck Model 184

Forecasting Performance of the MacAvoy-Pindyck Model (Version 2) 190

A Comparison of Models 191

Version 4 of the MacAvoy-Pindyck Model 195

Attanasi's Individual Basin Econometric Model 202

Parameter Estimation and Comparison of Models 205

Chapter 15. Discovery Process Models 213

Deposit Attributes, Size, and Measurement Error 219

Deposit Size Distributions 223

Arps and Roberts and Drew, Scheunemeyer, and Root's Models 233

Ryan's Model 236

Barouch and Kaufman's Model 248

Oil Supply Forecasting Using Disaggregated Discovery Process Models 270

Chapter 16. Industry Approaches to Forecasting Future Discoveries 289

Summary 293

PART IV. COAL: AN ECONOMIC INTERPRETATION OF RESERVE ESTIMATES 295

Introduction 295

Chapter 17. The Resource Classification System 297

Certainty Categories 297

Physical Dimensions 298

Reserve Base 298

Chapter 18. An Economic Interpretation of Reserves 301

The Economic Concepts 301

The Demonstrated Reserve Base 302

Is the Reserve Base Coal Available at Current Cost? 310

Strippable Reserve Base 313

Chapter 19. What We Need to Know 321

Inferred Reserves 323

Technological Change 324

Chapter 20. Recoverability 327

Recoverability of Deep Reserves 327

Recoverability of Strip Reserves 329

Summary 331

PART V. URANIUM: ESTIMATES OF U.S. RESERVES AND RESOURCES 333

Introduction 333

Uranium Geology 334

Chapter 21. Grand Junction Office Methodology 337

Historical Perspective 337

Ore Reserve Estimation 338

Potential Resource Estimation 341

Forward Cost Method 346

Production Capability Analysis 348

Chapter 22. Interpretation of GJO Estimates 353

Chapter 23. Trend Projection Models 361

Lieberman's Life-Cycle and Discovery Rate Models 364

Econometric Model by Perl 366

Chapter 24. Crustal Abundance Models 371

Chapter 25. Subjective Probability Appraisal 381

A Case Study of Subjective Probability 382

PART VI. COMPARISONS, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND CONCLUSIONS 385

Chapter 26. Resources and Reserves 387

A Contrast in Terminology 387

Future Cost Increases 388

Coal 389

Oil 390

Undiscovered Oil and Gas 391

Uranium 391

The Need for Further Research 393

Appendix 395

A. The Rate of Interest and the Optimal Depletion Rate 397

B. Decline Rates and Depletion Rates 403

C. The Soviet Reserve Classification System 407

D. The Resources and Reserves of Strippable Coal 409

Bibliography 413

Index 429

About the Authors 435