货币、银行和金融市场经济学 英文版PDF电子书下载

第一部分 本书简介 1

CREDITS 1

ANSWERS TO SELECTED QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS 1

GLOSSARY 1

INDEX 1

Why Study Financial Markets? 3

Preverw 3

WHY STUDY MONEY,BANKING,AND FINANCIAL MARKETS? 3

CHPRTER1 3

第一章 为什么要研究货币、银行、金融市场 3

PART1 Introduction 1 3

The Stock Market 4

The Bond Market and Interest Rates 4

The Foreign Exchange Market 6

Why Study Banking and Financial Institutions? 7

Financial Innovation 8

Banks and Other Financial Institutions 8

Structure of the Financial System 8

Money and Business Cycles 9

Why Study Money and Monetary Policy? 9

Money and Inflation 10

Money and Interest Rates 12

Conduct of Monetary Policy 12

How We Will Study Money,Banking,and Financial Markets 13

Budget Deficits and Monetary Policy 13

Concluding Remarks 14

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 15

Appendlx to Chapter1 17

Aggregate Output and Income 17

Defining Aggregate Output,Income,and the Price Level 17

Aggregate Price Level 18

Real Versus Nominal Magnitudes 18

CHAPTER2 20

第二章 金融体系概述 20

Preview 20

AN OVERVIEW OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM 20

Function of Financial Markets 21

Structure of Financial Markets 23

Debt and Equity Markets 23

Primary and Secondary Markets 23

Exchanges and Over-the-Counter Markets 24

Money and Capital Markets 25

Financal Market Instruments 25

Money Market Instruments 25

Following the Financial News Money Market Rates 28

Capital Market Intruments 28

Box1 Mortgage-Backed Securities 30

Internationalization of Financial Markets 31

Internation Bond Market,Eurobonds,and Eurocurrencies 32

Worid Stock Markets 32

Function of Financial Intermediaries 32

Following tbe Financial News Foreign Stock Market Indexes 33

Transaction Costs 34

Asymmetric Information:Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard 34

Box2 The Importance of Financial Intermediaries to Securities Markets:An International Comparison 35

Financial Intermediaries 37

Depository Institutions 37

Contractual Savings Institutions 40

Reguiation of the Financial System 41

Investment Intermediaries 41

Increasing Information Available to Investors 42

Ensuring the Soundness of Financial Intermediaries 42

Improving Control of Monetary Policy 45

Financial Regulation Abroad 45

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 45

第三章 什么是货币 48

CHAPTER3 48

WHAT IS MONEY? 48

Preview 48

Meaning of Money 48

Functions of Money 49

Medium of Exchange 49

Unit of Account 50

Store of Value 51

Evolution of the Payments System 52

Box1 Birth of the Euro:Will It Benefit Europe? 53

Electronic Money:A Coming Global Phenomenon 55

Ate We Moving to a Cashiess Society? 56

Measuring Money 57

The Federal Reserve s Monetary Aggregates 57

Following the Financial News The Monetary Aggregates 59

How Reliable are the Money Data? 60

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 61

第二部分 金融市场 65

PART11 Financial Markets 65

CHAPTER4 67

UNDERSTANDING INTEREST RATES 67

Preview 67

第四章 理解利率 67

Measuring Interest Rates 68

Present Value 69

Yield to Maturity 70

Box1 Negative T-Bill Rates?Japan Shows the Way 76

Other Measures of Interest Rates 76

Current Yield 76

Yield on a Discount Basis 77

Application Reading the Wall Street Jurnal:The Bond Page 79

Following the Financial News Bond Prices and Interest Rates 80

The Distinction Between Interest Rates and Returns 82

Maturity and the Volatility of Bond Returns:Interest-Rate Risk 84

Box2 Helping Investors to Select Desired Interest-Rate Risk 86

The Distinction Between Real and Nominal Interest Rates 86

Summary 86

Box3 With TIPS,Real Interest Rates Have Become Observable in the United States 89

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 89

CHAPTER5 92

THE BEHAVIOR OF INTEREST RATES 92

Preview 92

第五章 利率的波动 92

Expected Returns 93

Wealth 93

Determinants of Asset Demand 93

Liquidity 94

Risk 94

Theory of Asset Demand 95

Loanable Funds Framework:Supply and Demand in the Bond Market 95

Demand Curve 95

Supply Curve 97

Market Equilibrium 98

Supply and Demand Analysis 98

Changes in Equilibrium Interest Rates 100

Shifts in the Demand for Bonds 101

Shifts in the Supply of Bonds 104

Application Changes in the Equilibrium Interest Rate Due to 106

Expected Inflation or Business Cycle Expansions 106

Changes in Expected Inflation:The Fisher Effect 107

Business Cycle Expansion 108

Application Explaining Low Japanese Interest Rates 110

Application Reading the Wall Street Journal:The Credit Markets Column 111

Following the Financial News The Credit Markets Column 112

Application Have Low Savings Rates in the United States Led to Higher Interest Rates? 112

Liquidity Preference Framework:Supply and Demand in the Market for Money 113

Shifts in the Demand for Money 116

Changes in Equilibrium Interest Rates 116

Application Changes in the Equilibrium Interest Rate Due to Changes in Income,the Price Level,or the Money Supply 117

Changes in Income 117

Changes in the Price Level 117

Changes in the Money Supply 117

Shifts in the Supply of Money 117

Application Money and Interest Rates 120

Does a Higher Rate of Growth of the Money Supply Lower Interest Rates? 121

Following the Financial News Forecasting Interest Rates 124

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 126

CHAPTER6 128

THE RISK AND TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES 128

Preview 128

第六章 利率风险与时期构成 128

Risk Structure of Interest Rates 128

Difault Risk 129

Application The Stock Market Crash of 1987and the Junk Bond-Treasury Spread 132

Application What If Treasury Securities Were No Longer Default-Free? 133

Liquidity 134

Income Tax Considerations 134

Summary 136

Application Effects of the Clinton Tax Increase on Bond Interest Rtes 136

Term Structure of Interest Rates 136

Following the Financial News Yield Curves 137

Expectations Theory 138

Segmented Markets Theory 142

Liquidity Premium Theory 143

Evidence on the Term Structure 145

Summary 146

Application Interpreting Yield Curves,1980--2000 147

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 148

CHAPTER7 151

THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET 151

Preview 151

第七章 外汇市场 151

Foreign Exchange Market 152

What Are Foreign Exchange Rates? 153

Why Are Exchange Rates Important? 153

Following the Financial News Foreign Exchange Rates 154

Exchange Rates in the Long Run 155

Law of One Price 155

How Is Foreign Exchange Traded? 155

Theory of Purchasing Power Parety 156

Why the Theory of Purchasing Power Parity Cannot Fully Explain Exchange Rates 156

Factors That Affect Exchange Rates in the Long Run 157

Exchange Rates in the Short Run 159

Comparing Expected Returns on Domestic and Foreign Deposits 160

Interest Parity Condition 162

Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market 163

Explaining Changes in Exchange Rates 165

Shifts in the Expected-Return Schedule for Foreign Deposits 165

Shifts in the Expected-Return Schedule for Domestic Deposits 167

Application Changes in the Equilibrium Exchange Rate:Two Examples 168

Changes in Interest Rates 168

Changes in the Money Supply 171

Exchange Rate Overshooting 171

Application Why Are Exchange Rates So Volatile? 172

Application The Dollar and Interest Rates,1973--1999 173

Application The Euro s First Year 175

Application Reading the Wall Street Journal:The Foreign Exchange Column 175

Following tbe Financial News The Foreign Exchange Column 176

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 177

第三部分 金融机构 179

PART111 Financial Institutions 179

CHAPTER8 181

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STRUCTURE 181

Basic Puzzles About Financial Structure Throughout the World 181

第八章 金融机构的经济分析 181

Preview 181

Transaction Costs 185

How Transaction Costs Influence Financial Structure 185

How Financial Intermediaries Reduce Transaction Costs 185

Asymmetric Information:Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard 186

The Lemons Problem:How Adverse Selection Influences Financial Structure 187

Lemons in the Stock and Bond Markets 188

Tools to Help Solve Adverse Selection Problems 188

How Moral Hazard Affects the Choice Between Debt and Equity Contracts 192

Moral Hazard in Equity Contracts:The Principal-Agent Problem 193

Tools to Help Solve the Principal-Agent Problem 194

How Moral Hazard Influences Financial Structure in Debt Markets 195

Tools to Help Solve Moral Hazard in Debt Contracts 196

Summary 198

Application Financial Development and Economic Growth 198

Financial Crises and Aggregate Economic Activity 200

Factors Causing Financial Crises 200

Application Financial Crises in the United States 202

Box1 Case Study of a Financial Crisis:The Great Depression 204

Application Financial Crises in Emerging-Market Countries:Mexico,1994--1995,and East Asia,1997--1998 205

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 209

CHAPTER9 211

THE BANKING FIRM AND THE MANAGEMENT OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 211

Preview 211

The Bank Balance Sheet 211

第九章 企业借款业务以及金融机构的管理 211

Liabilities 212

Assets 214

Box1 Understanding Loan Loss Reserves 215

Basic Operation of Bank 216

General Principles of Bank Management 219

Liquidity Management and the Role of Reserves 220

Asset Management 223

Liability Management 224

Capital Adequacy Management 225

Application Strategies for Managing Bank Capital 227

Application Did the Capital Crunch Cause a Credit Crunch in the Early 1990s? 228

Managing Credit Risk 229

Screening and Monitoring 229

Long-Term Customer Relationships 231

Loan Commitments 231

Collateral and Compensating Balances 232

Credit Rationing 232

Managing Interest-Rate Risk 233

Gap and Duration Analysis 234

Application Strategies for Managing Interest-Rate Risk 235

Generation of Fee Income 236

Off-Balance-Sheet Activities 236

Loan Sales 236

Trading Activities and Risk Management Techniques 237

Box2 Barings,Daiwa,and Sumitomo:Rogue Traders and the Principal-Agent Problem 238

Financial Innovation 239

Responses to Changes in Demand Conditions 239

Responses to Changes in Supply Conditions 240

Avoidance of Existing Regulations 242

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 245

CHAPTER10 248

BANKING INDUSTRY:STRUCTURE AND COMPETITION 248

Preview 248

第十章 银行业：行业结构和行业竞争 248

Historical Development of the Banking System 249

Multiple Regulatory Agencies 251

Styucture of the U.S.Commercial Banking Industry 251

Response to Branching Restrictions 253

Restrictions on Branching 253

Bank Consolidation and Nationwide Banking 255

The Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994 256

Box1 Comparison of Banking Structure in the United States and Abroad 257

What Will the Structure of the U.S.Banking Industry Lood Like in the Future? 257

Are Bank Consolidation and Nationwide Banking Good Things? 258

Separation of the Banking and Other Financial Service Industries 259

Erostion of Glass-Steagall 259

The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999:Repeal of Glass-Steagall 259

Box2 The Citicorp-Travelers Merger 260

Implications for Financial Consolidation 260

Separation of Banking and Other Financial Services Industries Throughout the World 261

Thrift Industry:Regulation and Structure 261

Savings and Loan Associations 261

Mutual Savings Banks 262

Credit Unions 262

International Banking 263

Box3 The Common Bond Controversy 263

Eurodollar Market 264

Structure of U.S.Banking Overseas 264

Box4 Ironic of the Eurodollar Market 265

Foreign Banks in the United States 265

Financial Innovation and the Decline of Traditional Banking 267

Behind the Decline:Four Financial Innovations 267

Decline of Traditional Banking 270

Reasons for the Decline 271

Banks Responses 274

Decline of Traditional Banking in Other Industrialized Countries 275

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 276

CHAPTER11 279

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF BANKING REGULATION 279

Preview 279

Asymmetric Information and Bank Regulation 279

第十一章 银行业规则的经济分析 279

Government Safety Net:Deposit Insurance and the FDIC 280

Restrictions on Asset Holdings and Bank Capital Requirements 283

Bank Supervision:Chartering and Examination 284

Box1 The Basel Accord on Risk-Based Capital Requirements:Where Is It Heading? 285

A New Trend in Bank Supervision:Assessment of Risk Management 286

Disclosure Requirements 287

Consumer Protection 288

Restrictions on Competition 288

Box2 The Community Reinvestment Act:A Political Hot Button 289

International Banking Regulation 290

Problems in Regulating International Banking 291

Box3 The BCCI Scandal 292

Summary 292

The 1980s U.S.Banking Crisis:Why? 293

Early Stages of the Crisis 293

Later Stages of the Crisis:Regulatory Forbearance 295

Competitive Equality in Banking Act of 1987 296

Political Economy of the Savings and Loan Crisis 297

Principal-Agent Problem for Regulators and Politicians 297

Application Principal-Agent Problem in Action:Charles Keating and the Lincoln Savings and Loan Scandal 298

Savings and Loan Bailout:Financial Institutions Reform,Recovery,and Enforcement Act of 1989 299

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991 301

Application Evaluating FDICIA and Other Proposed Reforms of the Banking Regulatory Systern 302

Limits on the Scope of Deposit Insurance 302

Prompt Corrective Action 304

Risk-Based Insurance Premiums 304

Other FDICIA Provisions 304

Other Proposed Changes in Banking Regulations 305

Overall Evaluation 306

Banking Crises Throughout the World 306

Scandinavia 306

Latin America 307

Russia and Eastern Europe 308

Japan 309

East Asia 310

Déj? Vu All Over Again 310

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Probiems 311

CHAPTER12 313

NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 313

Preview 313

Insurance Companies 313

第十二章 非银行金融机构 313

Life Insurance Companies 314

Propenty and Casualty Insurance Companies 315

The Competitive Threat from the Banking Industry 316

Box1 The Woes of Lioyd s of London 317

Box2 Are Independent Insurance Agents Going the Way of the Milkman? 318

Application Insurance Management 318

Screening 319

Risk-Based Premiums 319

Restrictive Provisions 320

Prevention of Fraud 320

Cancellation of Insurance 320

Deductibles 320

Coinsurance 321

Limits on the Amount of Insurance 321

Summary 321

Pension Funds 321

Private Pension Plans 323

Public Pension Plans 323

Finance Companies 324

Box3 Should Social Security Be Privatized? 324

Mutual Funds 325

Money Mardet Mutual Funds 327

Hedge Funds 327

Box4 The Long-Term Capital Management Debacle 328

Government Financial Intermediation 329

Federal Credit Agencies 329

Government Loan Guarantees:Another Grisis Waiting to Happen? 330

Securities Market Institutions 330

Investment Banks 331

Following the Financial News Securities Issues 332

Securities Brokers and Dealers 332

Organized Exchanges 333

Box5 The Return of the Financial Supermarket? 334

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 335

Box6 The Inter.?t Comes to Wall Street 335

CHAPTER13 337

FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES 337

Preview 337

Forward Markets 337

Interest-Rate Forward Contracts 337

第十三章 金融衍生品 337

Application Hedging with Interest-Rate Forward Contracts 338

Pros and Cons of Forward Contracts 338

Financial Futures Markets 339

Financial Futures Contracts 339

Following the Financial News Financial Futures 340

Application Hedging with Financial Futures 342

Organization of Trading in Financial Futures Markets 342

The Globalization of Financial Futures Markets 343

Explaining the Success of Futures Markets 343

Application Hedging Foreign Exchange Risk 346

Hedging Foreign Exchange Risk with Forward Contracts 347

Hedging Foreign Exchange Risk with Futures Contracts 347

Options 348

Option Contracts 349

Following the Financial News Futures Options 349

Profits and Losses on Option and Futures Contracts 350

Application Hedging with Futures Options 353

Factors Affecting the Prices of Option Premiums 354

Summary 355

Interest-Rate Swap Contracts 356

Interest-Rate Swaps 356

Application Hedging with Interest-Rate Swaps 357

Advantages of Interest-Rate Swaps 357

Disadvantages of Interest-Rate Swaps 358

Financial Intermediaries in Interest-Rate Swaps 358

Application Are Financial Derivatives a Worldwide Time Bomb? 359

Box1 The Orange County Bankruptcy 360

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 361

PART IV Central Banking and the Conduct of Monetary Policy 365

第四部分 中央银行和货币政策 365

CHAPTER14 367

STRUCTURE OF CENTRAL BANKS AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 367

Preview 367

Origins of the Federal Reserve System 367

第十四章 中央银行的机制和联邦储备体系 367

Box1 Inside the Fed The Political Genius of the Founders of the Federal Reserve System 368

Federal Reserve Banks 369

Formal Structure of the Federal Reserve System 369

Member Banks 371

Box2 Inside the Fed The Special Role of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Yowk 372

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 373

Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) 374

The FOMC Meeting 374

Box3 Inside the Fed The Role of the Research Staff 375

Box4 Inside the Fed Green,Blue,and Beige:What Do These Colors Mean at the Fed? 377

Informal Structure of the Federal Reserve System 377

Box5 Inside the Fed The Role of Member Banks in the Federal Reserve System 379

How Independent Is the Fed? 379

Bank of Canada 382

Bank of England 382

Structure and Independence of Foreign Central Banks 382

Bank of Japan 383

European Central Bank 383

The Trend Toward Greater Independence 384

Explaining Central Bank Behavior 384

Box6 Inside the Fed Games the Fed Plays 385

Should the Fed Be Independent? 386

The Case for Independence 386

The Case Against Independence 387

Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance in Seventeen Countries 388

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 389

CHAPTER15 391

MULTIPLE DEPOSIT CREATION AND THE MONEY SUPPLY PROCESS 391

Preview 391

Four Players in the Money Supply Process 391

第十五章 各种储蓄以及货币供应系统 391

The Fed s Balance Sheet and the Monetary Base 392

Assets 392

Liabilities 393

Monetary Base 394

Control of the Monetary Base 395

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations 395

Shifts from Deposets into Currency 400

Box1 Foreign Exchange Rate Intervention and the Monetary Base 401

Discount Loans 401

Overview of the Fed s Ability to Control the Monetary Base 402

Multiple Deposit Creation:A Simple Model 402

Deposit Creation:The Single Bank 402

Deposit Creation:The Banking System 404

Multiple Deposit Contraction 406

Deriving the Formula for Multiple Deposit Creation 408

Critlque of the Simple Model 409

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 410

第十六章 货币供应的决定因素 412

DETERMINANTS OF THE MONEY SUPPLY 412

Preview 412

CHAPTER 16 412

The Money Supply Model and the Money Multiplier 413

Deriving the Money Multiplier 413

Intuition Behind the Money Multiplier 415

Factors That Determine the Money Multiplier 416

Changes in the Required Reserve Ratiord 417

Changes in the Currency Ratio｛C/D｝ 417

Changes in the Excess Reserves Ratio｛ER/D｝ 418

Additional Factors That Determine the Money Supply 420

Changes in the Nonborrowed Monetary Base MBn 421

Changes in Discount Loans DL from the Fed 421

Market Interest Rates and the Discount Rate 421

Overview of the Money Supply Process 422

Application Explaining Movements in the Money Supply,1980--1999 424

Application The Great Depression Bank Panics,1930--1933 427

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 430

Appendex to Chapter16 432

The M2 Money Multiplier 432

Factors That Determine the M2 Money Multiplier 433

Changes in rD,｛C/D｝,and｛ER/D｝ 433

Respones to Changes in ｛T/D｝and｛MMF/D｝ 433

第十七章 货币政策工具 435

CHAPTER17 435

TOOLS OF MONETARY POLICY 435

Preview 435

The Market for Reserves and the Federal Funds Rate 435

Supply and Demand in the Market for Reserves 436

How Changes in the Tools of Monetary Policy Affect the Federal Funds Rate 437

Open Market Operations 439

A Day at the Trading Desk 440

Advantages of Open Market Operations 441

Discount Policy 442

Operation of the Discount Window 442

Lender of Last Resort 444

Box1 Insede the Fed Discounting to Troubled Banks:Franklin National and Continental Illinois 445

Box2 Inside the Fed Discounting to Prevent a Financial Panic:The Black Monday Stock Market Crash of 1987 446

Advantages and Disadvantages of Discount Policy 447

Announcement Effect 447

Application Evaluating Proposed Reforms of Discount Policy 448

Should Discounting Be Abolished? 448

Should the Discount Rate Be Tied to a Market Rate of Interest? 448

Reserve Requirements 449

Advantages and Disadvantages of Reserve Requirement Changes 449

Application Evaluating Proposed Reforms of Reserve Requirements 450

Should Reserve Requirements Be Abolished? 450

Should Reserve Requirements Be Raised to 100%? 451

Application Why Have Reserve Requirements Been Declining Worldwide? 451

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 452

CHAPTER18 454

CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY:GOALS AND TARGETS 454

Preview 454

Goals of Monetary Policy 454

High Employment 454

第十八章 货币政策目标：中间目标和最终目标 454

Economic Growth 455

Price Stability 456

Interest-Rate Stability 456

Stability of Financial Markets 456

Box1 The Growing European Commitment to Price Stablilty 457

Stability in Foreign Exchange Markets 457

Conflict Among Goals 457

Central Bank Strategy:Use of Targets 458

Choosing the Targets 459

Criteria for Choosing Intermediate Targets 461

Creteria for Choosing Operating Targets 463

Fed Policy Procedures:Historical Perspective 463

The Early Years:Discount Policy as the Primary Tool 463

Discovery of Open Market Operations 464

The Great Depression 464

Box2 Inside the Fed Bank Panics of 1930--1933:Why Did the Fed Let Them Happen? 465

Reserve Requirements as a Policy Tool 466

War Finance and the Pegging of Interest Rates:1942--1951 466

Targeting Money Markey Conditions:The 1950s and 1960s 467

Targeting Monetary Aggregates:The 1970s 468

New Fed Operating Procedures:October 1979--October1982 470

De-emphasis of Monetary Aggregates:October 1982--Early 1990s 472

Federal Funds Targeting Again:Early 1990s and Beyond 472

International Considerations 473

Box3 International Policy Coordination:The Plaza Agreement and the Louvre Accord 474

The Taylor Rule,NAIRU,and the Phillips Curve 474

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 476

CHAPTER19 478

THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM 478

Preview 478

第十九章 国际金融体系 478

Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market 478

Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply 478

Box1 Inside the Fed A Day at the Federal Reserve BanK of New York s Foreign Exchange Desk 479

Unsterilized Intervention 481

Sterilized Intervention 482

Balance of Payments 483

Following the Financial News The Balance of Payments 484

Current Account 485

Capital Account 486

Official Reserve Transactions Balance 486

Methods of Financing the Balance of Payments 486

Evolution of the International Financial System 487

Gold Standard 487

Bretton Woods System 488

Box2 The Euro s Challenge to the Dollar 489

Managed Float 492

European Monetary System(EMS) 493

Application The Foreign Exchange Crisis of September1992 494

Application The Mexican Peso Crisis of December 1994 496

Application The East Asian Currency Crisis of 1997 496

Capital Controls 497

Controls on Capital Outflows 497

Controls on Capital Inflows 498

The Role of the IMF 499

Should the IMF Be an International Lender of Last Resort? 499

International Considerations and Monetary Policy 501

Balance-of-Payments Considerations 502

Direct Effects of the Foreign Exchange Market on the Money Supply 502

Exchange Rate Considerations 503

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 503

CHAPTER 20 506

MONETARY POLICY STRATEGY:THE INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE 506

Preview 506

第二十章 货币政策策略：国际经验 506

The Role of a Nominal Anchor 507

The Time-Inconsistency Problem 507

Exchange-Rate Targeting 508

Advantages of Exchange-Rate Targeting 508

Disadvantages of Exchange-Rate Targeting 509

When Is Exchange-Rate Targeting Desirable for Industrialized Countries? 511

When Is Exchange-Rate Targeting Desirable for Emerging Market Countries? 512

Currency Boards 512

Box1 Argentina s Currency Board 513

Dollarization 513

Monetary Targeting in Canada,the United Kingdom,Japan,Germany,and Switzerland 516

Monetary Targeting 516

Box2 The European Central Bank s Monetary Policy Strategy 518

Inflation Targeting 521

Disadvantages of Monetary Targeting 521

Advantages of Monetary Targeting 521

Inflation Targeting in New Zealand,Canada,and the United Kingdom 522

Advantager of Inflation Targeting 524

Disadvantages of Inflation Targeting 527

Nominal GDP Targeting 529

Monetary Policy with an Implicit Nominal Anchor 530

Advantages of the Fed s Approach 531

Disadvantages of the Fed s Approach 531

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 533

PART IV Monetary Tbeory 535

第五部分 货币理论 535

CHAPTER 21 537

THE DEMAND FOR MONEY 537

Preview 537

第二十一章 货币的需求 537

Velocity of Money and Equation of Exchange 538

Quantity Theory of Money 538

Quantity Theory 539

Quantity Theory of Money Demand 539

Cambridge Approach to Money Demand 540

Is Velocity a Constant? 541

Keynes s Liquidity Preference Theory 543

Transactions Motive 543

Precautionary Motive 543

Speculative Motive 543

Putting the Three Motives Together 544

Transactions Demand 547

Further Developments in the Keynesian Approach 547

Precautionary Demand 550

Speculative Demand 550

Friedman s Modern Quantity Theory of Money 552

Distinguishing Between the Friedman and Keynesian Theories 553

Empirical Evidence on the Demand for Money 556

Interest Rates and Money Demand 556

Stability of Money Demand 558

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 561

CHAPTER22 563

THE KEYNESIAN FRAMEWORK AND THE ISLM MODEL 563

Preview 563

第二十二章 凯恩斯体系和ISLM模型 563

Determination of Aggregate Output 564

Consumer Expenditure and the Consumption Function 565

Box1 Meaning of the Word Investment 567

Investment Spending 567

Equililbrium and the Keynesian Cross Diagram 568

Expenditure Multiplier 570

Application The Collapse of Investment Spending and the Great Depression 572

Gorernment s Role 573

Role of International Trade 575

Summary of the Determinants of Aggregate Output 576

The ISLM Model 579

Equilibrium in the Goods Market:The Is Curve 579

Equilibrium in the Market for Money:The LM Curve 583

ISLM Approach to Aggregate Output and Interest Rates 585

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 586

CHAPTER23 589

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY IN THE ISLM MODEL 589

Preview 589

第二十三章 ISLM模型下的财政金融政策 589

Factors That Cause the IS Curve to Shift 590

Factors That Cause the LM Curve to Shift 592

Changes in Equilibrium Level of the Interest Rate and Aggregate Output 594

Response to a Change in Monetary Policy 594

Response to a Change in Fiscal Policy 595

Application The Vietnam War Buildup and the Rise in Interest Rates,1965--1966 597

Effectiveness of Monetary Versus Fiscal Policy 599

Monetary Policy Versus Fiscal Policy:The Case of Complete Crowding Out 599

Application Targeting Money Supply Versus Interest Rates 601

ISIM Model in the Long Run 605

ISLM Model and the Aggregate Demand Curve 607

Deriving the Aggregate Demand Curve 607

Factors That Cause the Aggregate Demand Curve to Shift 608

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 610

Aggregate Demand 612

Preview 612

第二十四章 货币供求总量分析 612

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS 612

CHAPTER24 612

Following the Financial News Aggregate Output,Unemployment,and the Price Level 613

Monetarist View of Aggregate Demand 613

Keynesian View of Aggregate Demand 615

The Crowding-Out Debate 616

Aggregate Supply 617

Shifts in the Aggregate Supply Curve 618

Equilibrium in the Short Run 619

Equilibrium in Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis 619

Equilibrium in the Long Run 620

Shifts in Aggregate Demand 623

Shifts in Aggregate Supply 625

Shifts in the Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve:Real Business Cycle Theory and Hysteresis 627

Conclusions 629

Application Explaining Past Business Cycle Episodes 629

Vietnam War Buildup,1964--1970 629

Negative Supply Shocks,1973--1975 and 1978--1980 630

Favorable Supply Shocks,1995--1999 631

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 632

Preview 634

CHAPTER 25 634

第二十五章 金融政策机制的原理 634

TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS OF MONETARY POLICY:THE EVIDENCE 634

Framework for Evaluating Empirical Evidence 635

Structural Model Evidence 635

Reduced-Form Evedence 636

Advantages and Disadvantages of Structural Model Evidence 636

Advantages and Disadvantages of Reduced-Form Evidence 637

Box1 Perils of Reverse Causation:A Russian Folk Tale Conclusions 638

Box2 Perils of Ignoring an Outside Driving Factor:How to Lose a Presidenteal Election 639

Early Keynesian Evidence on the Importance of Money 639

Objections to Early Keynesian Evidence 640

Early Monetarist Evidence on the Importance of Money 642

Timing Evidence 643

Statistical Evidence 645

Historical Evidence 647

Overview of the Monetarist Evidence 648

Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy 648

Box3 Real Business Cycle Theory and the Debate on Money and Economic Activity 649

Traditional Interest-Rate Channels 649

Other Asset Price Channels 650

Credit View 654

Box4 Consumers Balance Sheets and the Great Depression 657

Why Are Credit Channels Likely to Be Important? 658

Application Credit Crunch and Slow Recovery from the 1990--1991 Recession 658

Lessons for Monetary Policy 659

Summary,Kry Terms,Questions and Problems 661

MONEY AND INFLATION 664

CHAPTER26 664

第二十六章 货币及通货膨胀 664

Preview 664

Money and Infiation:Evidence 664

Box1 Inflation and Money Growth Rates in Latin America,1989--1999 665

German Hyperinflation,1921--1923 666

Recent Episodes of Rapid Inflation 666

Meaning of Inflation 667

Views of Inflation 668

Monetarist View 668

Keynesian View 669

Summary 671

High Employment Targets and Inflation 672

Origins of Inflationary Monetary Policy 672

Budger Deficits and Inflation 676

Application Explaining the Rise in U.S. Inflation,1960--1980 680

Activist/Nonactivist Policy Debate 683

Responses to High Unenployment 684

Activist and Nonactivist Positions 685

Expectations and thd Activist/Nonactivist Debate 686

Rules Versus Discretion:Conclusions 687

Box2 Perils of Accommodating Policy:The Terrorism Dilemma 688

Application Importance of Credibility to Volcker s Victory over Inflation 688

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 689

第二十七章 期望理论及有效资本市场 691

THEORY OF RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS 691

Preview 691

CHAPTER27 691

Role of Expectations in Economic Activity 692

Theory of Rational Expectations 694

Formal Statement of the Theory 696

Rationale Behind the Theory 696

Implications of the Theory 696

Efficient Markets Theory:Rational Expectations in Financial Markets 697

Rationale Behind the Theory 699

Stronger Version of Efficient Markets Theory 700

Evidence on Efficient Markets Theory 700

Evidence in Favor of Market Efficiency 700

Box1 An Exception That Proves the Rule:Ivan Boesky 702

Application Should Foreign Exchange Rates Follow a Random Walk? 704

Evidence Against Market Efficiency 704

Overview of the Evidence on Efficient Markets Theory 706

Application Practical Guide to Investing in the Stock Market 707

Followtng tbe Financial News Stock Prices 707

Box2 Should You Hire an Ape as Your Investmtent Adviser? 708

How Valuable Are Published Reports by Investment Advisers? 708

Do Stock Prices Always Rise When There Is Good News? 709

Should You Be Skeptical of Hor Tips? 709

Efficient Markets Prescription for the Investor 710

Evidence on Rational Expectations in Other Markets 710

Application What Does thd Stock Market Crash of 1987 Tell Us About Rational Expectations and Efficient Markets? 711

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 713

第二十八章 有效期望：政策应用 715

Preview 715

CHAPTER 28 715

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS:IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY 715

The Lucas Critique of Policy Evaluation 716

Econometric Policy Evaluation 716

Example:The Term Structrue of Interest Rates 717

New Classical Macroeconomic Model 718

Effects of Unanticipated and Anticipated Policy 718

Box1 Proof of the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition 720

Can an Expansionary Policy Lead to a Decline in Aggregate Output? 721

New Keynesian Model 722

Implications for Policymakers 722

Effects of Unanticipated and Anticipated Policy 723

Implications for Policymakers 725

Comparison of the Two New Models with the Traditional Model 725

Short-Run Output and Price Responses 726

Stabilization Policy 728

Anti-inflation Policies 729

Credibility in Fighting Inflation 731

Application Credibility and the Reagan Budget Deficits 733

Successful Anti-inflation Prograrm 733

Box2 Ending the Bolivian Hyperinflation:Case Study of a Successful Anti-inflation Program 733

Impact of the Rational Expectations Revolution 734

Summary,Key Terms,Questions and Problems 736