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道路交通安全综合评价理论与方法
道路交通安全综合评价理论与方法

道路交通安全综合评价理论与方法PDF电子书下载

交通运输

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  • 作 者:裴欣著
  • 出 版 社:北京:北京交通大学出版社
  • 出版年份:2013
  • ISBN:9787512113572
  • 页数:145 页
图书介绍:本书在对现有安全评估研究进行综述分析的基础上,建立了基于完全贝叶斯推论方法的道路事故风险与伤亡程度双层综合预测模型,该模型架构简洁,灵活的模型结构允许各层采用各种模型形式,模型求解可运用基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛仿真的完全贝叶斯方法,寻找各影响因素与道路安全的关联性,进行特定条件下交通安全状况的评估与事故风险预测。本书将这一综合预测模型分别应用于信号灯交叉口和多类型道路路段的安全状况进行分析,研究交叉口设计要素对于交通安全在事故发生与伤亡程度两个层面的不同影响,以及曝光量和车速在路段交通安全分析中的作用,并通过模型的实际应用验证了综合预测模型的适用性与有效性。
《道路交通安全综合评价理论与方法》目录

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION 1

1.2 OBJECTIVES 3

1.3 BOOK STRUCTURE 5

CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 7

2.1 EVALUATION CRITERIA AND PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR ROAD SAFETY PERFORMANCE 7

2.1.1 Role of exposure in road safety analyses 8

2.1.2 Predictive models for crash occurrence 9

2.1.3 Predictive models for crash severity 11

2.1.4 Integrated models 13

2.2 METHODS OF ANALYSES 14

2.2.1 Maximum likelihood estimation 15

2.2.2 Full Bayesian method 15

2.3 RISK FACTORS 17

2.3.1 Speed and road safety 17

2.3.2 Geometric and operational factors and road safety 19

2.3.3 Weather conditions and road safety 20

2.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS 20

CHAPTER 3 MODELING FRAMEWORK 21

3.1 MODELING APPROACH 21

3.1.1 Crash frequency models 22

3.1.2 Crash severity models 29

3.1.3 Joint probability models 31

3.2 ESTIMATION METHOD 37

3.2.1 Maximum likelihood estimation method 37

3.2.2 Bayesian method 39

3.3 CONCLUDING REMARKS 49

CHAPTER 4 SAFETY ANALYSIS FOR SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS 50

4.1 INTRODUCTION 50

4.2 DATA 52

4.3 MODEL SPECIFICATION 57

4.3.1 Probability function for crash occurrence 57

4.3.2 Probability function for crash severity 59

4.3.3 Joint probability function 60

4.4 RESULTS 61

4.5 DISCUSSION 63

4.5.1 Quadrant 1:Significant factors affecting crash occurrence and crash severity 64

4.5.2 Quadrant 2:Significant factors affecting crash occurrence only 65

4.5.3 Quadrant 3:Significant factors affecting crash severity only 66

4.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS 66

CHAPTER 5 SAFETY ANALYSIS FOR ROAD SEGMENTS 68

5.1 INTRODUCTION 68

5.1.1 Road safetyon road segments 68

5.1.2 Role ofexposure and speed in road safety analysis 70

5.2 DATA 71

5.2.1 Crash database 72

5.2.2 Speed measurement 75

5.2.3 Traffic volume and exposure 77

5.2.4 Explanatory factors 78

5.2.5 Data summary 79

5.3 MODEL SPECIFICATION 82

5.3.1 Probability function for crash occurrence 82

5.3.2 Probability function for crash severity 83

5.3.3 Joint probability functions 84

5.4 RESULTS 85

5.5 DISCUSSION 89

5.5.1 Speed and road safety 89

5.5.2 Effects of explanatory factors 92

5.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS 93

CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS 95

6.1 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS 95

6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH 97

6.2.1 Alternative models in an integrated modeling framework 97

6.2.2 Bayesian updating function with prior information 98

6.2.3 Disaggregated safety analysis 99

APPENDIX A MOVING OBSERVER METHOD FOR SPEED DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION 100

A.1 INTRODUCTION 100

A.2 MODEL DEVELOPMENT 102

A.3 MODEL CALIBRATION 104

A.4 MODEL VALIDATION 107

A.5 CONCLUDING REMARKS 108

APPENDIX B GPS PROBE METHOD FOR SPEED DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION 109

B.1 INTRODUCTION 109

B.2 DATA 111

B.3 METHODOLOGY 112

B.3.1 Models for average travel speed 112

B.3.2 Models for speed dispersion 114

B.3.3 Full Bayesian method 114

B.4 RESULTS 115

B.4.1 Average travel speed 115

B.4.2 Speed dispersion 122

B.5 DISCUSSION 123

B.5.1 Average travel speed 123

B.5.2 Speed dispersion 125

B.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS 125

REFERENCES 126

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