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PART Ⅰ　THE FUNDAMENTALS OF MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING 　 1

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2

1.1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making 2

1.2 Trends Affecting Decision Making Today 5

1.3 Key Characteristics of Management Science for Decision Making 6

1.4 The Use of Models for Making Decisions 7

1.5 The Use of Software in Decision Making 17

1.6 Applications of Management Science in Business 18

References 22

CHAPTER 2 AVOIDING BAD DECISIONS:The Methodology of Decision Making 24

2.1 Introduction 24

2.2 Decision Making Traps 25

2.3 Decision Making Tips 27

2.4 The Rational Methodology for Decision Making 30

2.5 Identification of the Problem 31

2.6 Analysis of the System 33

2.7 Formulation of the Objectives 35

2.8 Initial System Design 37

2.9 Detailed System Design 39

2.10 Solution Implementation and Monitoring 40

References 43

PART Ⅱ　MODELS IN MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING 45

CHAPTER 3 LINEAR PROGR A MMING 47

3.1 Introduction 47

3.2 Characteristics of LP Problems 48

3.3 A Maximization Problem 50

3.4 A Trial-and-Error Approach in Solving LP Problems 51

3.5 Graphical Solution of a LP Problem 52

3.6 A Minimization Problem 55

3.7 General Formulation and Assumptions of LP Models 56

3.8 Solving LP Problems 58

Problems 59

References 61

CHAPTER 4 USING SOLVER TO SOLVE LINEAR PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS 63

4.1 Introduction 63

4.2 Introducing the Model in Excel 64

4.3 Solving the Problem 66

4.4 Understanding and Analyzing the Solution-SOLVER Repots 71

4.5 Solving Integer Programming Problems with SOLVER 75

4.6 Solving Non-Linear Programming Problems with SOLVER 75

4.7 Conclusions 77

Problems 77

References 78

CHAPTER 5 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN LINEAR PROGRAMMING 79

5.1 Introduction 79

5.2 An Example 80

5.3 Dual Prices in LP 82

5.4 Reduced Costs in LP 83

5.5 Changes in the Objective Function's Coefficients 84

5.6 Changes in the Right Hand Sides(RHS)of the Constraints 86

5.7 Evaluation of a New Activity 88

5.8 Conclusions 88

Problems 89

References 99

CHAPTER 6 INTEGER PROGRAMMING 100

6.1 Introduction 100

6.2 Formulating IP Problems with Binary Variables 101

6.3 An Investment Example 103

6.4 Formulating IP Problems with Fixed Costs and/or Discounts 104

6.5 Solving IP Problems 108

6.6 Heuristic Methods to Solve IP Problems 109

6.7 Conclusions 112

Problems 112

References 115

CHAPTER 7 MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING 116

7.1 Introduction 116

7.2 Empirical Methods 117

7.3 Goal Programming 119

7.4 The Analytical Hierarchy Process 124

7.5 Using Expert Choice to Solve Multicriteria Problems 130

Problems 135

References 138

CHAPTER 8 STATISTICAL METHODS IN DECISION MAKING 139

8.1 Introduction to Forecasting 139

8.2 Key Concepts about Forecasting 141

8.3 The Moving Averages Forecasting Method 144

8.4 Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method 148

8.5 Other Forecasting Methods 150

8.6 Linear Regression 152

8.7 Multiple Regression 157

8.8 Discriminant Analysis 161

8.9 Using SPSS for Statistical Analysis 164

Problems 167

References 172

CHAPTER 9 DECISION ANALYSIS 173

9.1 Introduction 173

9.2 Key Concepts about Decision Analysis 174

9.3 Criteria for Making Decisions under Uncertainty 175

9.4 The Expected Value of Perfect Information 178

9.5 Introduction to Decision Trees 179

9.6 Calculating the Risk Profile a Strategy 184

9.7 Sensitivity Analysis 185

9.8 Using Precision Tree to Solve Decision Analysis Problems 186

Problems 190

References 192

CHAPTER 10 SIMULATION 193

10.1 Introduction 193

10.2 Key Characteristics of Simulation 196

10.3 Implementation of Simulation under Conditions of Uncertainty 197

10.4 Simulation of Queuing Systems 200

10.5 Simulation of an Inventory System 202

10.6 Analysis of Simulation Results 205

10.7 Using Simulation for Risk Management 207

10.8 Using Simulation for Business Process Reengineering 213

Problems 222

References 225

PART Ⅲ　IMPLEMENTING MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN PRACTICE 227

CHAPTER 11 GETTING TO KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER 228

11.1 Introduction 228

11.2 Determining Customer Satisfaction 229

11.3 Designing New Products 233

11.4 Sales-Advertising Response Analysis 236

11.5 Forecasting Sales of New Products 240

11.6 Identifying Areas of Improvement 243

11.7 Studying Product Positioning 246

11.8 Identifying Market Segments 251

11.9 Identifying Prospect Customers 257

Problems 260

References 264

CHAPTER 12 MARKETING AND SALES MANAGEMENT 265

12.1 Introduction 265

12.2 A Product Selection Problem 267

12.3 Design of Sales Network 269

12.4 Selection of Communication Media 271

12.5 Selection of Location 274

12.6 Design of New Product Marketing Strategy 278

12.7 Design of Promotion Strategy 281

12.8 Sales Strategy 284

12.9 Evaluation of Customer Value for CRM Implementation 287

Problems 292

References 295

CHAPTER 13 PRODUCTION AND INVENTORY MANAGEMENT 296

13.1 Introduction 296

13.2 Production Planning—Selection of Production Mix 297

13.3 Capacity Planning 300

13.4 Outsourcing Management 303

13.5 Planning Production Personnel 304

13.6 Production Planning under Demand Uncertainty 307

13.7 Production and Sales Planning under Discounting 310

13.8 Selection of Production Technology 313

13.9 Sequencing and Scheduling Production Problems 318

Problems 320

References 322

CHAPTER 14 NETWORKS AND TRANSPORT PROBLEMS 323

14.1 Introduction 323

14.2 The Transportation Problem 324

14.3 Designing the Shortest Path 328

14.4 Managing Network Flow Problems 330

14.5 Designing the Minimum Spanning Tree 332

14.6 Planning Route Schedules with Multiple Vehicles 334

14.7 Scheduling an Airline's Flights 338

14.8 Project Management 342

Problems 345

References 347

CHAPTER 15 LOGISTICS A ND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT 348

15.1 Introduction 348

15.2 Designing the Supply Chain 349

15.3 Evaluating a Company Acquisition 352

15.4 Planning Product Distribution 355

15.5 Planning Distribution of Hazardous Materials 361

15.6 Selection of Transportation Media 363

15.7 Design and Introduction of New Product 368

Problems 373

References 376

CHAPTER 16 MANAGING INVESTMENTS 377

16.1 Introduction 377

16.2 A Simple Investment Selection Problem 378

16.3 Selecting a Multi-Period Investment Portfolio 380

16.4 Investing in Real Estate 383

16.5 Multi-Period Investment Planning 388

16.6 Asset and Liability Management in a Bank 391

16.7 Deciding on Production and Capital Structure for a Family Business 395

16.8 Developing Effective ExportPlanning 398

16.9 Developing a Customized Portfolio among FTSE-20 Companies 401

Problems 405

References 407

CHAPTER 17 MANAGING UNCERTAINTY IN FINANCE 408

17.1 Introduction 408

17.2 Investment Appraisal 409

17.3 Investment Selection 411

17.4 Business Analysis for a New Product 414

17.5 Project Finance Decision 418

17.6 Stock Portfolio Management 421

17.7 Capacity Planning under Demand Uncertainty 425

17.8 Portfolio Value at Risk(VAR)Calculation 429

Problems 431

References 433

CHAPTER 18 HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 434

18.1 Introduction 434

18.2 Allocating Personnel Workload 435

18.3 Scheduling for Personnel Time 438

18.4 Recruiting Personnel Using Performance Score Cards 440

18.5 Recruiting Personnel Using Multiple Criteria 443

18.6 Implementing a Fair Bonus System 447

18.7 Selecting Training Program 452

18.8 Building up Personnel Motivation 457

Problems 459

References 461

CHAPTER 19 ORGANIZATIONAL REDESIGN 462

19.1 Introduction 462

19.2 Reorganization of Hospital Processes 463

19.3 Evaluation of the Efficiency of Bank Stores 466

19.4 Supply System Reengineering 472

19.5 Toll Station Management 475

19.6 Planning the Port Services 479

19.7 Factory Production Planning 483

19.8 Reengineering the Rank Xerox Supply Chain 491

References 498

CHAPTER 20 USING MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN THE WORLD 499

20.1 Introduction 499

20.2 Designing Financial Products at Merrill Lynch 501

20.3 Designing a Supply Chain at IBM 508

20.4 Managing Blood in New York City 513

20.5 Routing and Distribution Scheduling at Federal Express 518

20.6 Human Resources Management at Emporiki Bank 522

20.7 Fire Fighting in Canada 526

20.8 Managing a Supply Chain in the Philippines 530

20.9 Recycling Waste Lube Oils in Greece 533

20.10 Yield Management at American Airlines 538

References 542