博鳌亚洲论坛新兴经济体发展2019年度报告PDF电子书下载

Chapter 1 Overview 1

1.1 Situation Analysis in 2018 1

1.2 Prospects for 2019 4

Chapter 2 Economic Growth 7

2.1 Economic Growth Eases Slightly 7

2.2 Consumption and Net Export Boost Growth 11

2.3 Trend of Mid-and High-Rate Growth may Continue 14

Chapter 3 Employment and Income 21

3.1 Employment Situations Improving 21

3.2 Per Capita Income Showing A Rising Momentum 28

Chapter 4 Prices and Monetary Policy 33

4.1 Sustained Inflationary Pressure 33

4.2 Overall Monetary Tightness to Fall 37

Chapter 5 International Trade 43

5.1 Trade Recovery Gaining Momentum 43

5.2 Threat of Protectionism Increasing 49

5.3 New Changes in Trade Links 53

Chapter 6 International Direct Investment 59

6.1 Growing Attractiveness to FDI 59

6.2 Investment Liberalization and Facilitation Continuously Advancing 65

Chapter 7 Bulk Commodities 71

7.1 A Marked Rise in Energy Commodity Prices 72

7.2 Differentiated Price Rises or Falls of Metal Commodities 76

7.3 “Price rise or fall”of Precious Metal Commodities 78

7.4 Overall Price Rises of Fertilizer Commodities 79

7.5 Agricultural Commodity Prices Almost Unchanged 80

7.6 International Commodity Prices and E11 Economies 80

Chapter 8 Debt 83

8.1 Public Debt Risks Still Controllable 83

8.2 Rising Private Debt Risks 87

8.3 Weakening of Foreign Debt Risks 91

Chapter 9 Financial Market 95

9.1 Stock Markets of Some E11 Countries Slump 95

9.2 Increasing Pressure on Treasury Bond Market 97

9.3 Real Estate Market Continues to Differentiate 100

9.4 Increasing Currency Depreciation Pressure 102

9.5 Financial Market Outlook 106

References 109

Acknowledgements 111