数据、模型与决策 英文版PDF电子书下载

1 Management Science 1

The Management Science Approach to Problem Solving 2

Time Out:for Pioneers in Management Science 5

Management Science Application:Management Science at Taco Bell 6

Model Building:Break-Even Analysis 7

Computer Solution 12

Management Science Modeling Techniques 15

Business Usage of Management Science Techniques 18

Management Science Application:Employee Scheduling with Management Science 19

Management Science Models in Decision Support Systems 20

Management Science Application:A Decision Support System for Aluminum Can Production at Coors 21

2 Linear Programming:Model Formulation and Graphical Solution 27

Model Formulation 28

A Maximization Model Example 28

Time Out:for George B.Dantzig 29

Graphical Solutions of Linear Programming Models 32

Management Science Application:Operational Cost Control at Kellogg 33

Management Science Application:Improving Customer Service at Amazon.com 44

A Minimization Model Example 45

Management Science Application:Determining Optimal Fertilizer Mixes at Soquimich(South America) 49

Irregular Types of Linear Programming Problems 51

Characteristics of Linear Programming Problems 53

3 Linear Programming:Computer Solution and Sensitivity Analysis 61

Computer Solution 62

Management Science Application:Optimizing Production Quantities at GE Plastics 66

Sensitivity Analysis 69

Management Science Application:Grape Juice Management at Welch's 72

4 Linear Programming:Modeling Examples 91

A Product Mix Example 92

A Diet Example 97

An Investment Example 100

Management Science Application:A Linear Programming Model for Optimal Portfolio Selection at Prudential Securities,Inc 105

A Marketing Example 105

A Transportation Example 108

A Blend Example 112

A Muhiperiod Scheduling Example 117

Management Science Application:Gasoline Blending at Texaco 118

A Data Envelopment Analysis Example 121

Management Science Application:Analyzing Bank Branch Efficiency by Using DEA 122

5 Integer Programming 146

Integer Programming Models 147

Management Science Application:Allocating Operating Room Time at Toronto's Mount Sinai Hospital 150

Integer Programming Graphical Solution 151

Computer Solution of Integer Programming Problems with Excel and QM for Windows 153

Time Out:for RalphE.Gomory 154

Management Science Application:College of Business Class Scheduling at Ohio University 156

Management Science Application:Forming Business Case Student Teams at Indiana University 160

0-1 Integer Programming Modeling Examples 161

Management Science Application:Planning Next-Day Air Shipments at UPS 168

6 Transportation,Transshipment,and Assignment Problems 183

The Transportation Model 184

Time Out:for Frank L.Hitchcock and Tjalling C.Koopmans 186

Management Science Application:Transportation Models at Nu-kote International 187

Computer Solution of a Transportation Problem 187

Management Science Application:Matching Wineries with Distributors 192

The Transshipment Model 192

Management Science Application:Transporting Mail at the U.S.Postal Service 196

The Assignment Model 197

Computer Solution of an Assignment Problem 197

Management Science Application:Supplying Empty Freight Cars at Union Pacific Railroad 200

Management Science Application:Assigning Umpire Crews at Professional Tennis Tournaments 201

7 Network Flow Models 223

Network Components 224

The Shortest Route Problem 225

The Minimal Spanning Tree Problem 232

Management Science Application:Reducing Travel Costs at the Defense Contract Management Agency 233

The Maximal Flow Problem 237

Time Out:for E.W.Dijkstra,L.R.Ford,Jr.,and D.R.Fulkerson 238

Management Science Application:Improving Service for Yellow Freight System's Terminal Network 239

8 Project Management 259

The Elements of Project Management 260

Management Science Application:Managing Projects in China 262

Time Out:for Henry Gantt 266

Management Science Application:An Air Flight Safety and Efficiency Project at the FAA 268

CPM/PERT 269

Time Out:for MorganR.Walker,JamesE.Kelley,Jr.,and D.G.Malcolm 270

Probabilistic Activity Times 278

Management Science Application A Drug Development Project to Combat Malaria 284

Microsoft Project 285

Project Crashing and Time-Cost Trade-Off 292

Management Science Application Reconstructing the Pentagon After 9/11 296

Formulating the CPM/PERT Network as a Linear Programming Model 297

9 Multicriteria Decision Making 315

Goal Programming 316

Graphical Interpretation of Goal Programming 320

Computer Solution of Goal Programming Problems with QM forWindows and Excel 323

Management Science Application:Developing Television Advertising Sales Plans at NBC 324

Time Out:for Abraham Charnes and William W.Cooper 327

The Analytical Hierarchy Process 330

Management Science Application:Selecting Students for Graduate Studies Abroad at Dar Al-Hekma Women's College 331

Management Science Application:Analyzing Advanced-Technology Projects at NASA 337

Management Science Application:Ranking Twentieth-Century Army Generals 339

Scoring Models 342

Management Science Application:A Scoring Model for Determining U.S.Army Installation Regions 343

10 Nonlinear Programming 365

Nonlinear Profit Analysis 366

Constrained Optimization 369

Solution of Nonlinear Programming Problems with Excel 372

A Nonlinear Programming Model with Multiple Constraints 375

Nonlinear Model Examples 377

Management Science Application:Gas Production in Australia 380

11 Decision Analysis 387

Components of Decision Making 388

Decision Making without Probabilities 389

Management Science Application:Decision Analysis at DuPont 391

Decision Making with Probabilities 396

Management Science Application:Evaluating Electric Generator Maintenance Schedules Using Decision Tree Analysis 407

Decision Analysis with Additional Information 411

Management Science Application:Decision Analysis in the Electric Power Industry 412

Management Science Application:Discount Fare Allocation at American Airlines 414

Management Science Application:Scheduling Refueling at the Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant 418

Utility 418

12 Queuing Analysis 435

Elements of Waiting Line Analysis 436

The Single-Server Waiting Line System 437

Time Out:for Agner Krarup Erlang 438

Management Science Application:Reducing Perceived Waiting Time at Bank of America 446

Undefined and Constant Service Times 447

Finite Queue Length 450

Management Science Application:Providing Telephone Order Service in the Retail Catalog Business 452

Finite Calling Population 453

The Multiple-Server Waiting Line 456

Management Science Application:Making Sure 911 Calls Get Through at AT＆T 460

Additional Types of Queuing Systems 462

13 Simulation 471

The Monte Carlo Process 472

Time Out:for John Von Neumann 477

Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets 477

Simulation of a Queuing System 483

Management Science Application:Planning for Health Emergencies Created by Terrorist Attacks 486

Continuous Probability Distributions 487

Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results 492

Crystal Ball 494

Verification of the Simulation Model 502

Areas of Simulation Application 502

Management Science Application:Simulating a 10-km Race in Boulder,Colorado 504

14 Forecasting 516

Forecasting Components 517

Management Science Application:Forecasting Advertising Demand at NBC 519

Time Series Methods 520

Management Science Application:Forecasting at Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company 524

Management Science Application:Forecasting Customer Demand at Taco Bell 525

Management Science Application:Seasonal Forecasting at Dell 530

Management Science Application:Developing Joint Forecasts at Boeing and Alcoa 533

Forecast Accuracy 534

Management Science Application:Forecasting at Bayer Consumer Care 537

Time Series Forecasting Using Excel 538

Time Series Forecasting Using QM for Windows 540

Regression Methods 541

Management Science Application:An Airline Passenger Forecasting Model 544

15 Inventory Management 563

Elements of Inventory Management 564

Management Science Application:Evaluating Inventory Costs at Hewlett-Inventory Control Systems 567

Time Out:for Ford Harris 568

Economic Order Quantity Models 569

The Basic EOQ Model 569

The EOQ Model with Noninstantaneous Receipt 575

The EOQ Model with Shortages 577

Management Science Application:Determining Inventory Ordering Policy at Dell 580

EOQ Analysis with QM for Windows 581

EOQ Analysis with Excel and Excel QM 581

Quantity Discounts 582

Management Science Application:Quantity Discount Orders at Mars 585

Reorder Point 587

Determining Safety Stock by Using Service Levels 589

Management Science Application:Establishing Inventory Safety Stocks at Kellogg's 592

Order Quantity for a Periodic Inventory System 593

Appendix A 601

Normal Table 601

Chi-square Table 602

Appendix B 603

Setting Up and Editing a Spreadsheet 603

Appendix C 607

The Poisson and Exponential Distributions 607

Solutions to Selected Odd-Numbered Problems 609

Glossary 617