INTRODUCTION 1
Ⅰ THE ANTI-NATURALISTIC DOCTRINES OF HISTORICISM 5
1 Generalization 6
2 Experiment 8
3 Novelty 9
4 Complexity 12
5 Inexactitude of Prediction 12
6 Objectivity and Valuation 14
7 Holism 17
8 Intuitive Understanding 19
9 Quantitative Methods 24
10 Essentialism versus Nominalism 26
Ⅱ THE PRO-NATURALISTIC DOCTRINES OF HISTORICISM 35
11 Comparison with Astronomy．Long-Term Forecasts and Large-Scale Forecasts 36
12 The Observational Basis 38
13 Social Dynamics 39
14 Historical Laws 41
15 Historical Prophecy versus Social Engineering 43
16 The Theory of Historical Development 45
17 Interpreting versus Planning Social Change 49
18 Conclusion of the Analysis 52
Ⅲ CRITICISM OF THE ANTINATURALISTIC DOCTRINES 55
19 Practical Aims of this Criticism 55
20 The Technological Approach to Sociology 58
21 Piecemeal versus Utopian Engineering 64
22 The Unholy Alliance with Utopianism 71
23 Criticism of Holism 76
24 The Holistic Theory of Social Experiments 83
25 The Variability of Experimental Conditions 93
26 Are Generalizations Confined to Periods？ 97
Ⅳ CRITICISM OF THE PRONATURALISTIC DOCTRINES 105
27 Is there a Law of Evolution？Lawn and Trends 105
28 The Method of Reduction．Causal Explanation．Prediction and Prophecy 120
29 The Unity of Method 130
30 Theoretical and Historical Sciences 143
31 Situational Logic in History．Historical Interpretation 147
32 The Institutional Theory of Progress 152
33 Conclusion 159
INDEX 162