INTRODUCTION The Emergence and evolution of Issues in American Foreign Policy 1
GOALS OF U.S. FOREIGN POLICY 2
CAUSAL FACTORS IN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY 6
Systemic Factors and the Evolution of U.S. Foreign Policies 8
Societal Forces and the U.S. Response to Emerging and Reemerging Issues 14
Role and Idiosyncratic Factors 21
Post-Cold War Grand Strategy 25
MODELS OF U.S. DECISION MAKING: RATIONAL ACTOR, ORGANIZATIONAL PROCESS, AND GOVERNMENTAL POLITICS 26
CHAPTER 1 Conventional Force Structure 37
INTRODUCTION 37
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND TO THE ISSUE 38
THE INITIAL POST-COLD WAR CONVENTIONAL FORCE STRUCTURE DEBATE 46
REFINEMENT OF THE DEBATE CONCERNING U.S. CONVENTIONAL FORCE STRUCTURE 49
THE STRATEGIC PROBLEM FOR THE EARLY 21ST-CENTURY U.S. CONVENTIONAL FORCES 55
CHAPTER 2 Ballistic Missile defense 72
INTRODUCTION 72
FACTORS LEADING TO THE INITIAL STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE PROPOSAL 73
U.S. AND SOVIET COMPETITION IN NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS 75
THE REAGAN STRATEGIC BUILDUP 79
THE REAGAN INITIATIVE TO DEVELOP A STRATEGIC DEFENSE SYSTEM 83
THE DEClINE OF SDI AS A FOREIGN POLICY OPTION 84
THE REEMERGENCE OF BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE AS A FOREIGN POLICY ISSUE 88
THE BUSH JR. ADMINISTRATION, THE NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW, AND THE EMERGING CONTEXT OF NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE 98
CHAPTER 3 Weapons of Mass Destruction 109
INTRODUCTION 109
CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS BEFORE THE COLD WAR PERIOD 110
CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS DURING THE COLD WAR PERIOD 112
Biological Weapons Convention 114
Nuclear Weapons 115
THE END OF THE COLD WAR AND PROGRESS IN CONSTRAINING WMD 117
International Nuclear Agreements 118
The Chemical Weapons Convention 118
THE REEMERGING ISSUE OF WMD 120
ADDRESSING THE REEMERGING ISSUE OF WMD 124
CHAPTER 4 International terrorism 142
INTRODUCTION 142
U.S. POLICY ON TERRORISM 144
THE SOURCES OF TERRORISM 148
OUTLINE OF THE U.S. POLICY RESPONSE 148
DEFINITIONAL QUAGMIRES 151
CONVENTIONAL TERRORISM 156
NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL, AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS TERRORISM 158
CYBERTERRORISM AND INFORMATION WARFARE 165
The Nature of Cyberterrorism 165
U.S. Government Responses to International Cyberterrorism 167
COSTS VERSUS BENEFITS AND RISKS VERSUS REWARDS--THE EVOLUTION OF U.S. POLICY TOWARD TERRORISTS 172
HOMELAND SECURITY--U.S. RESPONSE TO TERRORISM 177
CHAPTER 5 Transnational Organized Crime*194+INTRODUCTION 194
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME GROUPS 199
DRUG TRAFFICKING 203
DRUG PRODUCTION CHAINS--THE COLOMBIAN COCAINE CARTELS 208
Phase One (1974-1980) 209
Phase Two (1981-1986) 211
Phase Three (1987-1994) 213
Phase Four (1994-present) 216
Plan Colombia 218
CHAPTER 6 Humanitarian Intervention 230
INTRODUCTION 230
HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF PRE-COLD WAR* U.S. HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION 232
HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION DURING THE COLD WAR 235
HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION IN A POST-COLD WAR WORLD 238
CASE STUDIES: HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION IN THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD 239
The Kurds, 1991 240
Somalia 240
Haiti 244
Bosnia 246
Kosovo 249
CASE STUDIES: REFRAINING FROM INTERVENTION 253
Afghanistan 253
Rwanda 256
Sudan 257
The Kurds, 1992-2001 258
CHAPTER 7 Environmental Degradation 275
INTRODUCTION 275
THE EMERGENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING AND OZONE LAYER DEPLETION ON THE U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AGENDA 276
OZONE DEPLETION 278
Chlorofluorocarbons 278
The Vienna Convention 280
The Montreal Protocol 281
CLIMATE CHANGE 282
Scientific Evidence for Global Warming 283
Why Scientific Support for Global Warming was Insufficient to Change Policy 284
The issue of Global Warming During the Bush Sr. Administration 287
Changes in U.S. Policy During the Clinton Administration 289
The Kyoto Protocol 291
GENERAL FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF U.S. POLICY REGARDING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND OZONE-DEPLETING COMPOUNDS 292
UNRESOLVED PROBLEMS AND THE REEMERGENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AS A CONTENTIOUS FOREIGN POLICY ISSUE FOR THE UNITED STATES 292
THE POLICIES OF THE BUSH JR. ADMINISTRATION 295
FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR U.S. POLICY REGARDING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND OZONE DEPLETION 296
Ozone Depletion 298
Crosscutting Issues 300
CHAPTER 8 Biodiversity 311
INTRODUCTION 311
HISTORY OF U.S. INVOLVEMENT IN THE ISSUE OF SPECIES AND HABITAT PROTECTION 313
THE ARRAY OF FORCES CONCERNED WITH BIODWERSITY ISSUES 314
WILDLIFE PROTECTION 320
Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna 321
Biodiversity Convention 322
INVASWE SPECIES PROBLEM 324
ONGOING ISSUES CONCERNING BIODIVERSITY 325
CLONING 330
CHAPTER 9 Sustainable development 340
INTRODUCTION 340
THE CONFUSED CLASSIFICATIONS OF DEVELOPMENT 342
U.S. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE POLICIES IN THE 1950s 344
U.S. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE POLICIES IN THE 1960s 346
U.S. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE IN THE 1970s 348
U.S. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE IN THE 1980s 351
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND POPULATION GROWTH IN THE 1980s 352
THE EMERGING CONCEPT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 353
POPULATION, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, AND U.S. FOREIGN POLICY IN THE LATE 1980s AND 1990s 355
DEBT BURDEN IN THE 1980s-1990s 357
CLINTON, MULTILATERALISM, AND THE MOVEMENT TOWARD SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE 358
U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY 361
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND DEBT BURDEN 362
DEBT RELIEF AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY 363
CHAPTER 10 PANDEMIC DISEASE 376
INTRODUCTION 376
IN THE PAST 383
U.S. SUPPORT FOR INTERNATIONAL ACTION AIMED AT ADDRESSING SPECIFIC ENDEMIC AND POTENTIALLY PANDEMIC DISEASES 384
HIV/AIDS 385
Malaria 389
Tuberculosis 392
THE RESPONSE OF THE BUSH JR. ADMINISTRATION TO THE ISSUE OF PANDEMIC DISEASE 394
PANDEMIC DISEASE AND THE EMERGING CONFLICT WITH U.S. TRADE POLICIES 395
CHAPTER 11 International Energy Policy 413
INTRODUCTION 413
BACKGROUND TO THE ISSUE 415
THE 1990s AND THE EMERGENCE OF CONCERN FOR INTERNATIONAL ENERGY POLICIES 422
ACTORS AND FACTORS AFFECTING INTERNATIONAL ENERGY POLICY 424
Energy Sanctions as a Part of U.S. Energy Policy 426
Domestic Factors and U.S. Energy Policy 427
FUTURE U.S. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY POLICY OPTIONS 429
CHAPTER 12 The IMF and International Monetary Management 443
INTRODUCTION 443
THE EVOLUTION OF U.S. POLICY TOWARD THE IMF IN THE POST-WORLD WAR II PERIOD 446
International Currency Stability 446
The Role of the U.S. Dollar 449
The United States as the Unilateral Money Manager, 1947-1960 450
Political Advantages of Unilateralism to the United States 450
The End of U.S. Unilateral Mone3/Management 451
THE UNITED STATES AND THE RISE AND DECLINE OF MULTILATERAL MANAGEMENT 452
A Diminished U.S. Role 452
Establishment of the Group of Ten 452
The Creation of Artificial International Currency (Special Drawing Rights) 452
The Growing Influence of Transnational Corporations 453
Growing Interdependence of the United States, Western Europe, and Japan U.S. Attempts to Reassert Unilateral Money Management 454
The Group of Twenty 454
EXPANDING INTERDEPENDENCE AND MULTILATERAL MANAGEMENT 455
The Impact of Increasing Oil Prices 455
The Impact of Policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) 458
U.S. POLICIES AND THE DEBT CRISIS OF THE 1980s 459
U.S. Lending and Aid Policies and the Debt of NICs and Other LDCs 459
Proposed Solutions to Ending Debt of LDCs 460
THE 1980s DEBT CRISIS AND U.S. POLICY TOWARD THE IMF 461
Difference in Treatment of NIC Latin American Debt and Other LDC Debt by the United States 461
Expansion of Borrowing RIghts to Countries Outside the Group of Ten 463
The Baker Plan: A New Strategy for Growth Among Indebted States 464
Limited Success of the Baker Plan 465
Stopgap Measures (Debt Equity Swaps, Debt Swaps, and Bonds) After the Baker Plan 466
Threatened Political Stability of LDCs and Debt Forgiveness 467
The Restructuring of Debt Under the Brady Initiative 468
THE UNITED STATES, THE IMF, AND THE DEBT CRISES OF THE 1990s: MORE OPEN ECONOMIES 468
The Mexican Crisis of 1994 469
Lessons in Monitoring the Economic and Political Stability of Loan Recipients 469
Dangers ora Rapid Move to Open Economies 471
The United States and IMF Loans to Russia: Russia's Transition to an Open Economy 471
Stabilizing Russia with Advice and Loans from the IMF 472
The Role of Limited IMF Aid to Russia in the Election of Antireformers to the Duma 473
Additional IMF Loans for Russia with New Conditional ties 474
The Rise in Influence of Oligarchies and Their impact on Political and Economic Stability 474
The Failure of New Loans by the IMF to Stabilize Russia and the Continued Need for IMF involvement in Pressuring Russia 476
The United States, the IME and the Asian Financial Crisis 476
Initial Economic Stability and Growth in East Asia 476
Failure of the United States and IMF to Prevent Dangerous Asian Lending Practices 477
OUTSTANDING POLICY ISSUES FOR THE UNITED STATES ASSOCIATED WITH INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT 479
Moral Hazard 480
International Financial Standards and Transparency 481
Conditional ties 482
CHAPTER 13 International Trade Policy 496
INTRODUCTION 497
BACKGROUND TO THE ISSUE 497
KEY ELEMENTS OF THE GATI 499
U.S. LEADERSHIP UNDER THE GATT 500
THE GROWTH OF INTERDEPENDENCE, THE DECLINE OF THE COLD WAR, AND RENEWED PROTECTIONIST PRESSURES 501
The Tokyo Round 505
NAFTA 507
INTERNATIONAL CIVIL SOCIETY AND THE EMERGING FREE TRADE CONTROVERSY 508
CHAPTER 14 Management of International Resources 523
INTRODUCTION 523
INTERNATIONAL FISHERiES MANAGEMENT 524
The Development of Fisheries as a U.S. Foreign Policy Issue 525
The Development of a Coordinated U.S. Fisheries Policy 527
Pressures for Unilateral Action, 1960-1970 529
The Rise and Decline of Multilateral Management Policy--1970-1975 531
UNCLOS III 531
The U.S. Fisheries Conservation Zone, 1976 532
The Unfinished and Reemerging Problem of Protecting the World's Marine Living Resources 536
U.S. Options in the Twenty-First Century 539
FRESHWATER RESOURCES 541
OUTER SPACE 543
The Existing International Legal Framework of Outer Space 543
Emerging Issues of Outer Space 543
THE ANTARCTIC 547
The Antarctic Treaty System 548
Emerging Issues 549
CHAPTER 15 Democratization 564
INTRODUCTION 564
THE EVOLUTION OF DEMOCRATIZATION AS A GOAL OF U.S. FOREIGN POLICY PRIOR TO WORLD WAR II 566
Rhetoric and Reality: Democratization and U.S. Foreign Policy, 1945-1975 568
Democratization and the Carter Administration 571
Democratization as a Policy Issue in the Reagan Administration 573
Democratization and U.S. Policy in the Bush Sr. Administration 575
DEMOCRATIZATION AS A FOCUS FOR U.S. FOREIGN POLICY 577
THE IMPACT OF THE BROADENING OF DEMOCRATIZATION 580
Targeted Democratization Programs 581
Assessment of U.S. Democratization Efforts 582
CONCLUSION 595
ISSUE AREA ANALYSIS 595
THE EVOLUTION OF ISSUES ON THE U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AGENDA 596
Technological Innovation 597
Economic Interdependence 599
Changes in the International System 599
THE EVOLUTION OF U.S. POLICY TO ADDRESS EMERGING ISSUES 600
Systemic Factors 600
Domestic Factors 600
Idiosyncratic Factors 601
Crosscutting Factors 602
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP OF ISSUES 606
THE PROCESS AND PROSPECTS FOR THE EMERGENCE AND EVOLUTION OF ISSUES IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY 609
Notes 609
Index 610