Ⅰ THINKING CLEARLY ABOUT CRIME 1
1 CRIME AND POLICY: A COMPLEX PROBLEM 3
“Victory” or “Ticking Time Bomb”？ 3
The Search for Answers 4
Simplistic Solutions 5
Understanding the Crime Problem in the United States 6
Two Crime Problems 6
What the Murder Data Tell 7
Fear Versus Risk 8
Two Drug Problems 8
Crime Trends: Unraveling the Controversy 9
The War on Crime 10
The War on Crime and the African American Community 10
Overloading the System 12
Crime Policy: A Plague of Nonsense 13
The Futility of Waging “War” on Crime 15
The Ground Rules 16
The Question of Reasonable Goals 16
Guilty: Liberals and Conservatives 17
Crime Control Theology 17
Conservative Theology 18
Liberal Crime Control Theology 20
A Word About Rules 21
Ideological Confusion: Switching Sides 22
Conclusion 22
Notes 23
2 MODELS OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE 26
The Crime Commission’s Model 29
The Criminal Justice Wedding Cake 30
Celebrated Cases: The Top Layer 30
Serious Felonies: The Second and Third Layers 32
Prior Relationship: A Policy Dilemma 35
Hard or Soft on Crime？ Unraveling the Paradox 36
The Lower Depths: The Fourth Layer 37
Conclusion 38
Notes 38
3 THE GOING RATE 40
Evaluating the System 40
The Funnel 42
Rejections and Dismissals: Loophole？ 45
From Indictment to Punishment 47
An International Perspective on the Going Rate 50
The Courtroom Work Group 51
The Limits of Reform 52
The Dynamics of Reform 53
Criminal Justice Thermodynamics 54
How Many Mistakes？ 56
Conclusion 57
Notes 57
4 THE CAREER CRIMINAL 60
Wolfgang’s Birth Cohort 60
Other Cohort Studies 62
From Research to Policy 64
The Prediction Problem 65
The Rand Selective Incapacitation Study 67
How Much Crime Do They Do？ 69
Conclusion 70
Notes 71
Ⅱ “GET TOUGH”: THE CONSERVATIVE ATTACK ON CRIME 73
5 UNLEASH THE COPS！ 75
More Cops 75
The Police and Crime 76
The Lessons of Kansas City 77
Focused Police Patrol Activities 79
Does Policing Make Any Difference at All？ 81
Faster Response Time 82
More Detectives 83
Myths and Realities of Detective Work 83
Targeting Career Criminals 85
Eliminate the “Technicalities” 86
Repeal the Exclusionary Rule 87
The Exclusionary Rule and Crime Fighting 87
The Positive Impact of the Exclusionary Rule 89
Abolish Miranda 90
Miranda in Operation 90
Modifying Miranda 92
Conclusion 92
Notes 93
6 DETER THE CRIMINALS 96
Deterrence Theory 96
Assumptions Underlying Deterrence 97
The Risk of Crime: Some Preliminary Evidence 98
The Death Penalty 99
Sorting Out the Issues 99
Executions and Crime: Sellin’s Studies 100
Dr.Ehrlich’s Magic Bullet 100
Delays and Deterrence 102
Brutalization Theory？ 102
Summary 103
Deterring the Drunk Driver 103
The “Killer Drunk” and Other Myths 103
Deterrence and Drunk Driving 105
Drunk Drivers in Court 107
Crackdown Costs 109
Alternative Strategies for Dealing with Drunk Drivers 109
And Now for Some Good News 109
Deterring Burglars and Robbers 111
The Rand Inmate Survey 112
Deterring Domestic Violence 113
Conclusion 114
Notes 114
7 LOCK ’EM UP 117
Getting Criminals off the Street 117
Preventive Detention 118
A Short History of Bail Reform 118
Preventive Detention in Operation: Washington， D.C. 119
The 1984 Federal Bail Reform Act 120
Crime on Bail: Myths and Reality 121
The Prediction Problem Revisited 123
Speedy Trial: A Better Way 124
Incapacitation 125
Selective Incapacitation: The Rand Formula 125
Gross Incapacitation: Zedlewski’s New Math 128
Incapacitation: A Sober Estimate 129
Mandatory Sentencing 130
Three Case Studies 131
Mandatory Sentencing and Crime 136
Three Strikes—We Are All Out 137
Implementation 138
Impact 138
Summary: Striking Out 140
Conclusion 140
Notes 140
8 CLOSE THE LOOPHOLES 144
Prosecute the Career Criminal 144
Getting Tough in San Diego 144
Other Prosecution Programs 146
Abolish the Insanity Defense 147
Sorting Out the Issues 148
The Reality of the Insanity Defense 148
Aftermath of Acquittal 149
Danger to the Community 150
The Impact of Abolition 150
Abolish Plea Bargaining 153
Alaska Bans Plea Bargaining 153
Other Experiments 156
In Search of Plea Bargains 156
Restrict Appeals 157
Limiting Appeals 158
Appeals in Practice 159
Conclusion 160
Notes 160
Ⅲ THE MIDDLE GROUND: GUNS AND VICTIMS 163
9 PROTECT THE VICTIMS 165
Victims of Crime 165
The Victims’ Rights Movement 166
The Costs of Crime 168
New Laws and Programs 168
Critics of the Movement 168
Sorting Out the Issues 168
Criteria for Evaluation 169
Victim Assistance Programs 170
Police-Victim Recontact 171
Victim Compensation 172
Expanding the Victim’s Voice 173
The Impact of Victims’ Voice Laws 174
Speedy Trial 175
Getting Tough on Crime 176
Mandatory Arrest for Domestic Violence 176
Conclusion 177
Notes 177
10 CONTROL GUN CRIMES 180
The Problem with Guns—and Gun Policy 180
Gun Ownership and Gun-Related Violence 181
Types of Guns 181
Gun Ownership 181
Handgun-Related Violence 182
Handguns as Self-Protection 182
Gun-Related Laws 183
The Policy Alternatives 184
Public Attitudes Toward Gun Control 184
Ban Handguns 185
Ban Possession 185
The Limits of “Banning” Handguns 185
Ban Bullets 186
Ban the Manufacture and Importation of Handguns 187
Buy Back Handguns 187
Ban Saturday Night Specials 187
Ban Assault Rifles 188
Summary 188
Regulate the Sale and Possession of Handguns 188
Waiting Periods: The Brady Bill 190
Summary 190
Restrict the Use of Handguns 191
Restrict the Carrying of Handguns 191
Airplanes and Schools 193
Get Guns Off the Street: The Kansas City Experiment 194
More Guns？ 195
Get Tough on Weapons Offenses 195
Getting Tough in Detroit 196
Conclusion 198
Notes 198
Ⅳ REFORM: THE LIBERAL PRESCRIPTION 201
11 TREAT ’EM！ 203
Rehabilitating Criminals 203
The Philosophy of Rehabilitation 203
Political Controversy: The Willie Horton Furlough 204
The “Nothing Works” Controversy 204
Was Martinson Right？ 205
The Prediction Problem Revisited 206
The Revival of Correctional Intervention？ 206
Diversion 207
The Manhattan Court Employment Project 208
The Net-Widening Problem 209
Does Diversion Rehabilitate？ 209
Probation 210
The Effectiveness of Probation 211
The New Intermediate Punishments 214
Intensive Probation Supervision 214
Home Confinement and Electronic Monitoring 216
Boot Camps 218
Parole 220
Does Parole Work？ 220
Intensive Parole Supervision 221
The Prediction Problem Again 222
Abolish Parole？ 223
Reintegration and Restorative Justice 224
Restorative Justice in Operation 224
Rehabilitation: Running on Empty？ 225
Notes 226
12 REFORM THE LAW AND THE SYSTEM 230
Decriminalization 230
The Rationale for Decriminalization 231
The Terms of the Debate 232
The Impact of Decriminalization 233
Public Disorder Crimes 234
Abortion 234
Sex Between Consenting Adults 235
Gambling 235
Summary 236
Legalizing Drugs？ 236
Eliminate Injustice 236
Arrest as a Case Study 237
Summary 238
Conclusion 238
Notes 238
Ⅴ THE DRUG PROBLEM 241
13 SENSE AND NONSENSE ABOUT DRUGS 243
The Drug Problem 243
Hysteria over Drugs 243
Myths and Realities About Drugs and Crime 244
The Extent of Illegal Drug Use 244
The Drug-Crime Connection 247
The Drug Policy Choices 248
The War on Drugs: Policy and Consequences 249
Impact of the War on Drugs 249
Police “Crackdowns” 250
Interdiction and Eradication 252
Tougher Sentencing 252
The Limits of the Criminal Law 253
The Lessons of History 254
When Enforcement Does Work 254
Demand Reduction: Drug Education 255
‘Just Say No” 255
DARE: Success or Failure？ 256
But Some Education Programs Do Work 257
Drug Treatment 259
Varieties of Treatment 259
Does Treatment Work？ 260
Legalize Drugs？ 261
Varieties of Legalization 262
The Impact of Legalization 263
A Specific Proposal 263
Conclusion 266
Notes 267
Ⅵ CONCLUSIONS 271
14 THE PARADOX OF CRIME AND CRIME POLICY 273
The Great American Paternity Fight 273
A Word of Caution 274
A Quick Review of What We Have Learned 274
Crime Prevention: The Maryland Report 276
Conclusion 279
Notes 279
I NDEX 281