1 Management Science 1
The Management Science Approach to Problem Solving 2
Time Out:for Pioneers in Management Science 5
Management Science Application:Management Science at Taco Bell 6
Model Building:Break-Even Analysis 7
Computer Solution 12
Management Science Modeling Techniques 15
Business Usage of Management Science Techniques 18
Management Science Application:Employee Scheduling with Management Science 19
Management Science Models in Decision Support Systems 20
Management Science Application:A Decision Support System for Aluminum Can Production at Coors 21
2 Linear Programming:Model Formulation and Graphical Solution 27
Model Formulation 28
A Maximization Model Example 28
Time Out:for George B.Dantzig 29
Graphical Solutions of Linear Programming Models 32
Management Science Application:Operational Cost Control at Kellogg 33
Management Science Application:Improving Customer Service at Amazon.com 44
A Minimization Model Example 45
Management Science Application:Determining Optimal Fertilizer Mixes at Soquimich(South America) 49
Irregular Types of Linear Programming Problems 51
Characteristics of Linear Programming Problems 53
3 Linear Programming:Computer Solution and Sensitivity Analysis 61
Computer Solution 62
Management Science Application:Optimizing Production Quantities at GE Plastics 66
Sensitivity Analysis 69
Management Science Application:Grape Juice Management at Welch's 72
4 Linear Programming:Modeling Examples 91
A Product Mix Example 92
A Diet Example 97
An Investment Example 100
Management Science Application:A Linear Programming Model for Optimal Portfolio Selection at Prudential Securities,Inc 105
A Marketing Example 105
A Transportation Example 108
A Blend Example 112
A Muhiperiod Scheduling Example 117
Management Science Application:Gasoline Blending at Texaco 118
A Data Envelopment Analysis Example 121
Management Science Application:Analyzing Bank Branch Efficiency by Using DEA 122
5 Integer Programming 146
Integer Programming Models 147
Management Science Application:Allocating Operating Room Time at Toronto's Mount Sinai Hospital 150
Integer Programming Graphical Solution 151
Computer Solution of Integer Programming Problems with Excel and QM for Windows 153
Time Out:for RalphE.Gomory 154
Management Science Application:College of Business Class Scheduling at Ohio University 156
Management Science Application:Forming Business Case Student Teams at Indiana University 160
0-1 Integer Programming Modeling Examples 161
Management Science Application:Planning Next-Day Air Shipments at UPS 168
6 Transportation,Transshipment,and Assignment Problems 183
The Transportation Model 184
Time Out:for Frank L.Hitchcock and Tjalling C.Koopmans 186
Management Science Application:Transportation Models at Nu-kote International 187
Computer Solution of a Transportation Problem 187
Management Science Application:Matching Wineries with Distributors 192
The Transshipment Model 192
Management Science Application:Transporting Mail at the U.S.Postal Service 196
The Assignment Model 197
Computer Solution of an Assignment Problem 197
Management Science Application:Supplying Empty Freight Cars at Union Pacific Railroad 200
Management Science Application:Assigning Umpire Crews at Professional Tennis Tournaments 201
7 Network Flow Models 223
Network Components 224
The Shortest Route Problem 225
The Minimal Spanning Tree Problem 232
Management Science Application:Reducing Travel Costs at the Defense Contract Management Agency 233
The Maximal Flow Problem 237
Time Out:for E.W.Dijkstra,L.R.Ford,Jr.,and D.R.Fulkerson 238
Management Science Application:Improving Service for Yellow Freight System's Terminal Network 239
8 Project Management 259
The Elements of Project Management 260
Management Science Application:Managing Projects in China 262
Time Out:for Henry Gantt 266
Management Science Application:An Air Flight Safety and Efficiency Project at the FAA 268
CPM/PERT 269
Time Out:for MorganR.Walker,JamesE.Kelley,Jr.,and D.G.Malcolm 270
Probabilistic Activity Times 278
Management Science Application A Drug Development Project to Combat Malaria 284
Microsoft Project 285
Project Crashing and Time-Cost Trade-Off 292
Management Science Application Reconstructing the Pentagon After 9/11 296
Formulating the CPM/PERT Network as a Linear Programming Model 297
9 Multicriteria Decision Making 315
Goal Programming 316
Graphical Interpretation of Goal Programming 320
Computer Solution of Goal Programming Problems with QM forWindows and Excel 323
Management Science Application:Developing Television Advertising Sales Plans at NBC 324
Time Out:for Abraham Charnes and William W.Cooper 327
The Analytical Hierarchy Process 330
Management Science Application:Selecting Students for Graduate Studies Abroad at Dar Al-Hekma Women's College 331
Management Science Application:Analyzing Advanced-Technology Projects at NASA 337
Management Science Application:Ranking Twentieth-Century Army Generals 339
Scoring Models 342
Management Science Application:A Scoring Model for Determining U.S.Army Installation Regions 343
10 Nonlinear Programming 365
Nonlinear Profit Analysis 366
Constrained Optimization 369
Solution of Nonlinear Programming Problems with Excel 372
A Nonlinear Programming Model with Multiple Constraints 375
Nonlinear Model Examples 377
Management Science Application:Gas Production in Australia 380
11 Decision Analysis 387
Components of Decision Making 388
Decision Making without Probabilities 389
Management Science Application:Decision Analysis at DuPont 391
Decision Making with Probabilities 396
Management Science Application:Evaluating Electric Generator Maintenance Schedules Using Decision Tree Analysis 407
Decision Analysis with Additional Information 411
Management Science Application:Decision Analysis in the Electric Power Industry 412
Management Science Application:Discount Fare Allocation at American Airlines 414
Management Science Application:Scheduling Refueling at the Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant 418
Utility 418
12 Queuing Analysis 435
Elements of Waiting Line Analysis 436
The Single-Server Waiting Line System 437
Time Out:for Agner Krarup Erlang 438
Management Science Application:Reducing Perceived Waiting Time at Bank of America 446
Undefined and Constant Service Times 447
Finite Queue Length 450
Management Science Application:Providing Telephone Order Service in the Retail Catalog Business 452
Finite Calling Population 453
The Multiple-Server Waiting Line 456
Management Science Application:Making Sure 911 Calls Get Through at AT＆T 460
Additional Types of Queuing Systems 462
13 Simulation 471
The Monte Carlo Process 472
Time Out:for John Von Neumann 477
Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets 477
Simulation of a Queuing System 483
Management Science Application:Planning for Health Emergencies Created by Terrorist Attacks 486
Continuous Probability Distributions 487
Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results 492
Crystal Ball 494
Verification of the Simulation Model 502
Areas of Simulation Application 502
Management Science Application:Simulating a 10-km Race in Boulder,Colorado 504
14 Forecasting 516
Forecasting Components 517
Management Science Application:Forecasting Advertising Demand at NBC 519
Time Series Methods 520
Management Science Application:Forecasting at Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company 524
Management Science Application:Forecasting Customer Demand at Taco Bell 525
Management Science Application:Seasonal Forecasting at Dell 530
Management Science Application:Developing Joint Forecasts at Boeing and Alcoa 533
Forecast Accuracy 534
Management Science Application:Forecasting at Bayer Consumer Care 537
Time Series Forecasting Using Excel 538
Time Series Forecasting Using QM for Windows 540
Regression Methods 541
Management Science Application:An Airline Passenger Forecasting Model 544
15 Inventory Management 563
Elements of Inventory Management 564
Management Science Application:Evaluating Inventory Costs at Hewlett-Inventory Control Systems 567
Time Out:for Ford Harris 568
Economic Order Quantity Models 569
The Basic EOQ Model 569
The EOQ Model with Noninstantaneous Receipt 575
The EOQ Model with Shortages 577
Management Science Application:Determining Inventory Ordering Policy at Dell 580
EOQ Analysis with QM for Windows 581
EOQ Analysis with Excel and Excel QM 581
Quantity Discounts 582
Management Science Application:Quantity Discount Orders at Mars 585
Reorder Point 587
Determining Safety Stock by Using Service Levels 589
Management Science Application:Establishing Inventory Safety Stocks at Kellogg's 592
Order Quantity for a Periodic Inventory System 593
Appendix A 601
Normal Table 601
Chi-square Table 602
Appendix B 603
Setting Up and Editing a Spreadsheet 603
Appendix C 607
The Poisson and Exponential Distributions 607
Solutions to Selected Odd-Numbered Problems 609
Glossary 617