TACTICAL CRIME ANALYSIS PESEARCH AND LNVESTIHOTIONPDF电子书下载

SECTION Ⅰ 3

1 Introduction of Crime Analysis 3

Introduction 3

Conclusion 7

2 Understanding Criminal Behavior 9

Introduction 9

Rational Choice 9

Research Findings 11

Routine Activities Theory 13

Research Findings 15

Crime Pattern Theory 16

Research Findings 18

Opportunity Makes the Thief 19

Conclusion 23

3 Behavioral Geography 25

Introduction to Behavioral Geography 25

Spatial Behavior 27

Mental Maps and Awareness Space 27

Research on Mental Maps and Awareness Space 29

Journey-to-Crime 32

Journey-to-Crime Research 33

Thinking Criminal 35

4 Exploring Crime Types 45

Introduction 45

Homicide 45

Robbery 47

Burglary 49

Auto Theft 51

Sexual Assault 54

Conclusion 55

5 Linking Crime 57

Introduction 57

Linkage Blindness 58

Jane Smith 58

Sheriff Joe 59

Who, What, Where, When, How and Why 60

The Dresser Drawers Theory 60

The Investigative Mindset: Fact and Inference 62

Process Models: The IZE Method 64

Process Models: Inductive Versus Deductive 68

Process Models: Quantitative Identification 70

Data Mining 71

Data Mining: Regular Expressions 72

Data Mining: Concepts 74

Conclusion 75

6 Temporal Analysis 77

Introduction 77

Definitions 77

Basic Assumptions 78

Primary Time of Occurrence 79

Multiple Times of Occurrence 79

Aoristic Analysis 80

Temporal Analysis Units 81

T Coordinates 82

Temporal Study Area (Range) 82

Temporal Distribution 83

Tempo 86

Velocity 87

Temporal Cycles 87

Time Series Analysis 88

7 Geographic Profiling 91

Introduction 91

Background of Geographic Profiling 91

Geographic Profiling Schools of Thought 92

Criminal Geographic Targeting (CGT) 93

Personalities and History 93

Application 93

Investigative Psychology (I-?) 95

Personalities and History 95

Application 96

CrimeStat 97

Personalities and History 97

Application 97

Empirically Calibrated Decay Functions 100

Wedge Theory 100

Personalities and History 101

Application 101

Geoforensic Analysis 101

Personalities and History 101

Application 102

Philosophical Foundations 102

Individual Methods 103

Research on the Accuracy of Geographic Profiling Systems 105

Glossary of Terms 107

8 Forecasting and Prediction 109

Overview 109

Why Forecasts Work 110

Why Forecasts Don't Work 110

The Utility of Forecasts 111

Temporal Forecasting 111

Spatial Forecasting 112

Why Predictions Work 112

Decision Models 113

Why Predictions Don't Work 117

Methods 120

Percent Change 121

Correlation 123

Autocorrelation 123

Linear Trend Estimation (Regression) 125

9 Intervention 127

Introduction 127

Objectives 128

Intervention Strategies 132

Opportunity Cost 135

Tactics 135

The Action Plan—A Combined Approach 136

SECTION Ⅱ 136

10 Getting Started 141

Goals of This Section: 141

Introduction 141

Accessing the Textbook Web page 141

Online Resources 141

Obtaining the Software 142

Open and Evaluate Data using ATAC 142

Lesson 1: Open the Sample Database in ATAC 142

Practice on Your Own: Evaluate Crime Data Using ATAC 142

ATAC and Microsoft Access 143

Lesson 2: Open a Microsoft Access Database in ATAC 143

Practice on Your Own: Evaluate Call for Service Data 144

ATAC and Microsoft Excel 144

Lesson 3: Open a Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet in ATAC 145

Lesson 4: Open the Sample Database in Excel 145

Practice on Your Own: Evaluate Data Using Microsoft Excel 145

Lesson 5: Import Data from Access into Excel 145

Practice On Your Own: Import Data into Excel 147

Review Exercise: Open Other Data 147

Review Questions 147

11 Identify Patterns Using the IZE Method (Process Models) 149

Goals of This Section: 149

Introduction 149

Layouts in ATAC 150

Lesson 6: Organizing a Layout Using ATAC 150

Lesson 7: Saving a Layout in ATAC 151

Layouts in Excel 152

Lesson 8: Organizing a Layout Using Excel 152

Practice On Your Own: Create a Robbery Layout Using Microsoft Excel 152

Sorting Data 153

Lesson 9: Organizing Data by Sorting in ATAC 153

Lesson 10: Organizing Data by Sorting in Excel 154

Review Exercise: Create Sorts for Three Crime Types 154

Review Questions 154

12 Minimize and Maximize—IZE method 155

Goals of This Section: 155

Introduction 155

Structured Query Language 155

Lesson 11: Minimize Using the Visual Query Module in ATAC 156

Lesson 12: Minimize Using the Filter Bar in ATAC 157

Lesson 13: Minimize Using the Filter Bar in Excel 158

Practice on Your Own: Minimize Data Using Excel 159

Practice on Your Own: Find the Twins 159

Practice on Your Own: Identify a Crime Series 160

Regular Expressions 160

Lesson 14: Create and Run a Regular Expression 160

Lesson 15: Create and Run a Proximity Search RegularExpression 161

Lesson 16: Create a Concept 162

Lesson 17: Create and Run a Proximity Search Concept 163

Review Exercise: Using RegEx to Perform the Inductive Method 164

Review Questions 165

13 The Behavioral Dimension: Describing the Problem 167

Goals of This Section: 167

Introduction 167

Archetypes 168

Lesson 18: Creating an Archetype from ATAC 168

Movement Logs 168

Lesson 19: Develop a Movement Log 169

Review Exercise: Creating an Archetype 170

Review Questions 170

14 The Temporal Dimension 171

Goals of This Section: 171

Introduction 171

Activity Schedules 172

Lesson 20: Creating an Activity Schedule 172

Lesson 21: Create a Temporal Topology Using Excel 173

Lesson 22: Create a Temporal Topology Using ATAC 174

Practice On Your Own: Evaluate Time of Day and Day of Week for Various Crimes 175

Dynamic Temporal Analysis 177

Temporal Distribution 177

Tempo 178

Lesson 23: Create a Tempogram in ATAC 178

Lesson 24: Create a Tempogram in Excel 179

Lesson 25: Create a Mean Interval Forecast with Excel 180

Practice on Your Own: Calculate Mean Interval for Various Other Crimes 181

Variograms 181

Lesson 26: Create a Variogram Using Excel 181

Lesson 27: Create a Variogram Using ATAC 182

Practice on Your Own: Calculate Lag Variograms against Various Other Crimes 183

Lesson 28: Study of Correlation Using Excel 184

Lesson 29: Study of Correlation Using ATAC 186

Review Exercise: Evaluate Other Crime Series Using Correlation 187

Review Questions 188

15 The Spatial Dimension 189

Goals of This Section: 189

Introduction 189

Preparing for Spatial Analysis 190

Lesson 30: Launching ArcGIS and Exploring the Interface 190

Lesson 31: Add the Gotham City Crime Series Using ArcGIS 191

ArcGIS and the Spatial Analyst Extension 191

Lesson 32: Loading Spatial Analyst 192

ArcGIS and SPACE (Spatial Predictive Analysis of Crime Extension) 192

Lesson 33: Loading the SPACE Tools in ArcGIS 193

Preparing for Spatial Analysis Using Google Earth 193

Lesson 34: Load Points in Google Earth 193

Lesson 35: Export to Google Earth 194

Preparing for Spatial Analysis Using ATAC 194

Lesson 36: Loading Points in ATAC 195

Point Distributions 196

Frame of Reference 196

Lesson 37: Frame of Reference 196

Identify Point Distribution 196

Mean Nearest Neighbor 198

Lesson 38: Calculating Nearest Neighbor Statistics 198

Density Fields 198

Lesson 39: Density Fields Using ArcGIS 199

Lesson 40: Calculating Density Analysis in ATAC 200

Minimum Convex Polygon 201

Lesson 41: Minimum Convex Polygon 202

Standard Deviation Ellipse 202

Lesson 42: Standard Deviation Ellipse 202

Spider Analysis 202

Lesson 43: Spider Analysis 203

Lesson 44: Establishing Offender Activity Space Using Spider Lines and Density Fields 205

Space-Time Analysis 206

Sequence Lines 206

Lesson 45: Sequence Lines 208

Geographic Profiling 208

Lesson 46: Calculate the Great Circle against the Beltway Sniper Series 208

Practice On Your Own: Are you a Marauder or Commuter? 209

Lesson 47: Create a Newton-Swoope Geoforensic Profile of the Beltway Sniper Series 210

Review Exercise: Using the Great Circle and Geographic Profiling 211

Review Questions 212

Bibliography 213

Index 219