博鳌亚洲论坛亚洲经济一体化进程2019年度报告 英文PDF电子书下载

Chapter 1 Directions of Asian Economic Integration amid US Bilateralism and a Weakened Multilateral Organization 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Context 1

1.3 State of Play in the US Bilateral Strategy 4

1.4 State of Play in the Multilateral System 6

1.5 Directions of Regional Trading Arrangements 7

1.6 Next Steps 11

Chapter 2 Recent Trend of Asia’s Trade and Investment 13

2.1 Trade of Asia in 2017 13

2.2 Asia’s Trade in Intermediate Goods：A Surprising Recovery 19

2.3 FDI Inflows and Outflows in Asia 22

Chapter 3 Trade Interdepence among the Asian Economies 31

3.1 Measuring Asia’s Trade Integration 31

3.2 Evolving Trade Interdependence among Key Asian Economies 33

3.3 Trade Flows among Selected Asian Economies 36

3.4 Asia’s Trade in Intermediate Goods：Direction of Flows and Interdependence 37

3.5 Accounting for the Value Added Creation in Asian Merchandise Exports 39

Chapter 4 Interdependence among the Asian Economies in Factory Asia 43

4.1 The Pattern of Interdependence in Factory Asia Remained Stable 43

4.2 Product Dependence and Distribution of Competitive Advantages 45

4.3 Pattern of Competitive Advantages among the Three Global Factories 48

Chapter 5 FDI Interdependence in Asia 55

5.1 Interdependence Index of Inward FDI 55

5.2 Interdependence Index of Outward FDI 57

5.3 FDI Interdependence in Asia 58

Chapter 6 Integration in Asia’s Service Sector 61

6.1 Trade in Services for Asia：beyond GATS 61

6.2 Asia Tourism Integration Index 63

Chapter 7 Financial Integration 69

7.1 Portfolio Investment：Growth Acceleration and Unbalanced Regional Distribution 69

7.2 De jure and de facto Financial Openness of Asia 72

7.3 Index of Business Cycle Synchronization 81

7.4 Stock Market Correlation Index in Asia 83

Outlook 87

Appendix Important Events of the Asian Economic Integration 89

REFERENCES 103

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 107