公共经济计量分析PDF电子书下载

Figure 1-1 Annual Growth Rates of GDP and Public and Private Investment in Japan 8

Figure 1-2 Annual Changes in Ratios of Public and Private Investment to GDP in Japan 9

Figure 1-3 Annual Growth Changes in GDP and Public and Private Investment in the US 16

Figure 1-4 Annual Changes in Ratios of Public and Private Investment to GDP in the US 17

Figure 2-1 Changes in the Natural Logarithm Values ofthe Variables 30

Figure 2-2 Impulse Function Analysis 41

Figure 2-3 Error Variance Decomposition Analysis 42

Figure 4-1 Comparisons ofEach Item between Japan and the US(Growth Rates) 83

Figure 6-1 Log-values ofthe Variables 123

Figure 8-1 Effects of Commodity Taxation 5%(Case 1) 177

Figure 8-2 Effects of Labor Taxation 5%and Capital Taxation 5%(Case 2) 177

Figure 8-3 Effects of Commodity Taxation 10%(Case 3) 178

Figure 8-4 Effects of Labor Taxation 10%and Capital Taxation 10%(Case 4) 178

Figure 8-5 Influences on Capital Price 179

Figure 8-6 Influences on Labor Price 179

Figure 8-7 Influences on Labor Supply 180

Figure 8-8 Influences on Capital Supply 180

Figure 8-9 Influences on Consumer Utility 181

Figure 9-1 Changes in Amounts ofExports and Tax Rebates and Foreign Exchange Rates (1985-2007) 192

Figure 9-2 Changes in the Variables(the Growth Rates)(1986-2007) 193

Table 1-1 Performances of Public and Private Investment and GDP in Japan(%) 8

Table 1-2 Result of Unit Root Tests for the Japanese Data(1958-1997) 11

Table 1-3 Result of Johansen Co-integration Tests for the Japanese Data(1958-1997) 12

Table 1-4 Empirical Estimation for the Japanese Data(1958-1997) 13

Table 1-5 Performances of Public and Private Investment and GDP in the US(%) 15

Table 1-6 Group Unit Root Tests in Levels for the US Data(1958-1997) 18

Table 1-7 Empirical Estimation by OLS Based on the US Data(1958-1997) 19

Table 1-8 Empirical Estimation by GMM Based on the Japanese Sub-samples Data 20

Table 1-9 Empirical Estimates by OLS for the US Sub-samples Data 21

Table 1-10 Pairwise Granger Causality Tests 22

Table 2-1 Result of Unit Root Tests 31

Table 2-2 Result of Johansen Co-integration Tests at Lag Order Two 32

Table 2-3 Result of Johansen Co-integration Tests at Lag Order Six 32

Table 2-4 Vector Error Correction Estimation 36

Table 2-5 Granger Causality Tests 43

Table 3-1 Ratios of the Authorized Ones to Total Patent Applications(2002)(%) 54

Table 3-2 Ratios of R ＆ D Expenditure to GDP in Different Countries 55

Table 3-3 R ＆ D Activities in Different Countries(2004) 56

Table 3-4 R ＆ D Activities in China 58

Table 3-5 Shares of Different Funds for Scientific and Technological Activities(%) 59

Table 3-6 Impacts of R ＆ D Activities on Patent Outputs 62

Table 3-7 Relationship of Different Funds for Scientific and Technological Activities and Patent Outputs 64

Table 3-8 Relationship of Patent Outputs and Production Outputs 65

Table 4-1 Plain OLS,Within and Variance Components Estimates 85

Table 4-2 Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimates 86

Table 5-1 Result of Unit Root Tests 98

Table 5-2 Result of Johansen Co-integration Test 98

Table 5-3 Estimation by OLS(1968-1989) 99

Table 5-4 Estimation by OLS(1968-1998) 100

Table 5-5 Estimation by OLS including a Dummy Variable(1968-1998) 101

Table 5-6 Estimation by Seemingly Unrelated Regression(1968-1998) 102

Table 5-7 Estimation by OLS(1967-1998) 104

Table 5-8 Estimation by Full Information Maximum Likelihood(1968-1998) 105

Table 5-9 Estimation by Full Information Maximum Likelihood(1968-1998) 106

Table 5-10 Estimation of(5.29)by OLS 111

Table 5-11 Estimation of(5.29)by GLS 112

Table 5-12 Estimation of(5.30)by OLS 113

Table 5-13 Estimation of(5.31)by OLS 113

Table 5-14 Estimation of(5.32a)and(5.32b)by Seemingly Unrelated Regression 115

Table 6-1 Ordinary Least Square(OLS)Estimation(1965-2000) 124

Table 6-2 Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity(ARCH)Estimation(1965-1989) 125

Table 6-3 Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity(ARCH)Estimation(1965-2000) 126

Table 6-4 Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation(SUR)(1965-2000) 127

Table 7-1 General Situation of China's Government Procurement(2001-2004) 145

Table 7-2 Basic Statistics for the Panel Data 146

Table 7-3 Effects on General Fiscal Money Saving(gfs) 149

Table 7-4 Effects on Budgetary Money Saving(bfs) 151

Table 7-5 Effects on General Fiscal Money Saving Ratio(rgfs) 152

Table 7-6 Effects on Budgetary Money Saving Ratio(rbfs) 154

Table 8-1 Social Accounting Matrix Data 173

Table 9-1 Pay-off Matrix of Export Enterprise and Tax Authority 189

Table 9-2 The Results ofADF and P-P Unit Root Tests 194

Table 9-3 Estimated Results ofEquation(9.1)by OLS 196

Table 9-4 Estimated Results ofEquation(9.2)by OLS 198

Table 9-5 Estimated Results ofEquation(9.2)by GARCH(model) 198

PART Ⅰ Empirical Estimation on the Effects of Public-sector Activities on Economic Growth 1

Chapter 1 A Comparative Analysis of the Relationship between Public and Private Investment and Economic Growth 3

1.1 Introduction 3

1.2 Theoretical Framework 6

1.3 Empirical Analysis 7

1.3.1 GMM Estimation 7

1.3.2 OLS Estimation 14

1.4 Some Confirmation 20

1.5 Conclusion 23

Appendix for Chapter 1 25

Chapter 2 A Simple VECM Estimation on the Interactions among Public and Private Capital Investment,Innovation Investment and Economic Growth 26

2.1 Introduction 27

2.2 Data and Unit Root Tests and Co-integration Tests 29

2.3 Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) 33

2.4 Empirical Estimation 34

2.4.1 Estimated Result 34

2.4.2 Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition Analysis 40

2.4.3 Granger Causality Tests 41

2.5 Conclusion 44

References for Chapters 1 and 2 45

Chapter 3 Innovative Inputs,Patent and Production Outputs 50

3.1 Introduction 51

3.2 Comparison of Technological Innovation Activities 53

3.3 Empirical Analysis 57

3.3.1 Data 57

3.3.2 Relationship of lnnovative Inputs and Patent Outputs 61

3.3.3 Relationship of Patent and Production Outputs 65

3.4 Conclusion 66

References for Chapter 3 67

PART Ⅱ Empirical Estimation on the Effects of Public-sector Activities on Private Consumption 69

Chapter 4 Effects of Government Consumption and Public Debt on Private Consumption:An Augmented Consumption Function Estimation 71

4.1 Introduction 72

4.2 Previous Empirical Studies 74

4.3 Empirical Analysis 79

4.3.1 An Augmented Consumption Function 79

4.3.2 Econometric Issues 80

4.3.3 Data 82

4.3.4 Empirical Estimation and Its Result 84

4.4 Conclusion 88

Notes for Chapter 4 88

Chapter 5 Effects of Current Government Activities on Private Consumption:An Euler Equation Estimation 91

5.1 Introduction 92

5.2 "Effective"Consumption Theory and Euler Equation 93

5.2.1 Barro's "Effective"Consumption Theory 93

5.2.2 Euler Equation and Its Incorporation with the"Effective"Consumption Theory 94

5.3 Data 97

5.4 Empirical Analysis 99

5.5 Comparison to Aschauer's Estimation(1985) 103

5.6 Conclusion 108

Notes for Chapter 5 109

Chapter 6 Effects of Government Activities on Private Consumption:A Further Euler Equation Estimation 116

6.1 Introduction 117

6.2 Incorporate"Effective"Consumption Theory with Euler Equation 119

6.2.1 "Effective"Consumption Theory 119

6.2.2 Euler Equation and Its Incorporation with the Developed"Effective"Consumption Theory 121

6.3 Empirical Analysis 123

6.4 Conclusion 129

References for Chapters 4-6 130

PART Ⅲ Empirical Estimation on the Effects of Public-sector Activities on Economic Efficiency 137

Chapter 7 Empirical Estimation on the Performance of Government Procurement System Reform in China 139

7.1 Introduction 140

7.2 Fiscal Money Saving Function 143

7.3 Data 144

7.4 Panel Model and Its Estimation 147

7.5 Conclusion 156

References for Chapter 7 157

Chapter 8 Commodity Taxation and Economic Efficiency—An Estimation of CGE Models 159

8.1 Introduction 160

8.2 Theory on Optimal Commodity Taxation 161

8.2.1 The Classical Ramsey Rule 161

8.2.2 Ramsey Rule with Many Households 163

8.2.3 Some Argument on Rarnsey Rule 165

8.3 Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Models 166

8.3.1 MPSGE Static Analysis 166

8.3.2 Dynamic Analysis 170

8.4 Simulations 172

8.4.1 Procedures 173

8.4.2 Simulation Result 176

8.5 Conclusion 181

References for Chapter 8 182

Chapter 9 Are Export Tax Rebate Adjustments Effective in China? 184

9.1 Introduction 185

9.2 Static Game Model Analysis 188

9.3 Data Analysis 191

9.4 Empirical Analysis 195

9.5 Conclusion 199

References for Chapter 9 201